Sporting Life's preview of the Copa America final between Argentina and Brazil, including best bets and score prediction
Sporting Life's preview of the Copa America final between Argentina and Brazil, including best bets and score prediction

Copa America final tips: Argentina v Brazil best bets and preview


The Copa America final brings us one of the best rivalries in international football, as Argentina and Brazil face off. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game and selects his best bet.


Copa America betting tips: Argentina v Brazil

2pts Both teams to score in 90 minutes at 23/20 (Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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These two sides have been the best in the competition, with both thoroughly deserving of their place in the final. They represent the two best attacking and defensive teams at the Copa according to expected goals (xG).

Having tipped Brazil at the start of the tournament to defend their title at 11/8, we are in a decent position heading into the final, with the Seleção now best priced 6/10 to lift the trophy.

Given how Tite’s side have performed at the tournament, I am still confident they can get the job done, and I was tempted to jump back in on Brazil to win the final in 90 minutes at 6/5, but another bet caught my eye. Going against the grain could be where we get out value.


Kick-off time: 01:00 BST, Sunday

TV channel: BBC One

Venue: Maracanã - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Argentina 14/5 | Draw 21/10 | Brazil 11/10


Brazil’s attack has deserved more

As mentioned, these two sides are the best attacking and defensive teams in the tournament according to expected goals, with Brazil in particular deserving more from their perfromances.

They have won five of their six matches, and both knockout games were by 1-0 scorelines, but Brazil should have won more comfortably in both.

In fact, Seleção have created chances equating to 17.6 xGF in six games at the Copa, an average of 2.94 per game which is staggering. They have scored just 12 times.

Argentina v Brazil

Missing big chances and coming up against some inspired goalkeepers are the reasons behind the disparity between goals scored and expected goals for, but the premise of xG is that if you continue to create chances at the same rate, regression to the mean will occur and you will start scoring at an expected rate.

Argentina will hope that doesn’t happen right away, but it really could. As good as Argentina have been defensively (0.81 xGA per game), its really hard to see them keeping this well-balanced Brazil attack at bay. Plus, they haven’t yet faced a team with attacking firepower quite like this one.

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Argentina can hit back

While Argentina haven’t quite turned themselves into a team that is difficult to beat, they have improved in attack, with Lionel Scaloni finding a system to get the best out of his star players, the most important one being Lionel Messi.

Messi is the leading scorer at the Copa America, scoring four times from chances equating to 3.55 xG, while he also leads all players in assists with five (3.67 xA).

On average, he is worth an astonishing 1.18 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 95 minutes to this Argentina team. Messi is their driving force.

His contributions have led to La Albiceleste averaging 2.66 xGF per game throughout the tournament, with Argentina also unfortunate not to have netted more goals (11 goals, 16.0 xGF).

Just like they haven’t faced an attack like Brazil’s so far, their bitter rivals haven’t come up against a team that has been creating as many good chances as Argentina.

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Goals the way to go

While finals are normally a war of attrition, with few chances created by either team in low-scoring affairs, this game could be different.

Both Brazil and Argentina have shown incredible levels of chance creation in attack, and both boast some fantastic firepower in attacking areas, players who can provide moments of brilliance.

I still expect this to be a tight game, with little between the sides, but the 23/20 price for BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE just looks too big given the attacking qualities and defensive frailties of the pair.

Let’s not forget that neither side has been tested defensively just yet, and that is why they have looked solid and comfortable. This game should see the pressure ramp up on each teams defences, with both expected to be breached.


Argentina v Brazil best bets and score prediction

  • 2pts Both Teams To Score in 90 minutes at 23/2 (Betfair)

Score prediction: Argentina 1- 2 Brazil (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 1500 BST (09/07/21)

Sporting Life's preview of the Euro 2020 final between Italy and England, including best bets and score prediction
CLICK TO READ: Sporting Life's preview of the Euro 2020 final between Italy and England, including best bets and score prediction

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