Football betting tips: Super Sunday
3pts Liverpool to win and Under 4.5 goals at 17/20 (Betway)
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 21/10 (William Hill, Unibet)
0.5pt Mohamed Salah to be shown a card at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt No goalscorer at 28/1 (Betfair)
BuildABet @ 26/1
- Liverpool to win
- Salah to be carded
- Both teams to score - No
Even for a club that have become specialists in reaching new nadirs over the past decade, the opening half an hour of Manchester United's home match with Newcastle on Monday night was quite something.
Prior to Kobbie Mainoo's introduction, a Newcastle side containing Jacob Murphy and Dan Burn conjured memories of prime Barcelona; at least when Sir Alex Ferguson's side were chasing shadows at Wembley in 2011 their manager had picked the right team.
Lost in the melodrama and hyperbole, both expected in the aftermath of any Manchester United defeat, was the simplicity behind such a tragic performance: Ruben Amorim gave his players no chance whatsoever.
United are yet to score a goal with Diogo Dalot and Noussair Mazraoui at wing-backs, yet they both started. No-one else believed Casemiro and Christian Eriksen playing together in central midfield would have anything other than disastrous consequences, yet play together they did.
"I feel sorry for him, there's a human being in there..." 🎙
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 30, 2024
Joshua Zirkzee is replaced by Kobbie Mainoo after half an hour. pic.twitter.com/v9FBAvkK3x
To make matters worse, purely to provide more physicality at set-pieces Joshua Zirkzee was used as an inside forward, a position he had never previously played and was clearly deeply uncomfortable in until being forced to suffer the ignominy of a 33rd-minute substitution.
"We are trying to fix a lot of problems. Sometimes you push one side, and it opens the other."
Amorim's point may be fair, but some of his selections were glaringly obvious miscalculations.
Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte, his starting midfield duo away at Arsenal last month, will both return from suspension on Sunday, which should help United's new manager to avoid repeating such rudimentary errors.
For what can only be described as a simply frightening trip to Anfield, where Arne Slot's W23 D3 L1 Liverpool await, he simply cannot afford to.
What are the best bets?
At first glance, Manchester United being generally 8/1 is something to behold, a reflection of their demise and their rivals' rise under respective new management.
However, the 1x2 - with Liverpool just a touch shorter (from 1/3 to 2/7) - largely mirrors 13 months ago, just as the narrative does; last season there was perhaps an added sprinkling of giddiness given the previous meeting at Anfield saw the hosts win 7-0.
It finished goalless, by the way.
With Amorim highly likely to channel his inner pragmatist and revert to the line-up and strategy employed for United's 2-0 defeat at The Emirates - a match where Arsenal bombarded them from corners but created little in open play - going against the grain is advised, taking small stakes to the enormous 28/1 about NO GOALSCORER.
United cannot possibly be as bad as they were on Monday, and while I of course accept 0-0 (or even better a Liverpool win via an own goal) is highly unlikely, given the context and at the prices, opposing goals looks the way, hence taking the 21/10 about UNDER 2.5 GOALS as well as LIVERPOOL WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS at 17/20.
- CLICK HERE to back Under 2.5 goals with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Liverpool and Under 4.5 goals with Sky Bet
Sixteen of the Reds' 20 victories (80%) in the Premier League and Champions League this season have seen four goals or fewer, with nine of those (45%) involving under 2.5 goals.
It is very, very difficult to envisage anything other than a home win.
Let's just hope Ruben parks the bus.
MOHAMED SALAH has been Liverpool's star man under Slot, reaching an incredible 36 goal involvements already (19 goals, 17 assists).
The Egyptian isn't SHOWN A CARD very often, but when he is the circumstances are fairly consistent.
Salah's frustration either gets the better of him against a stubborn opponent, and he is booked for an unnecessary foul, or in a release of emotion he takes his shirt off in celebration - as was the case in the 3-2 win at Southampton earlier this season and the 7-0 win over United at Anfield 18 months ago.
By some margin he is the biggest priced player to be booked, with the 14/1 available well worth taking.
Team news
Jarell Quansah is expected to start for Liverpool after Joe Gomez limped off during the 5-0 win at West Ham. Ibrahima Konate and Conor Bradley are back training but Sunday is likely to come too early.
Dominik Szoboszlai is back from suspension.
Manchester United have Ugarte and Fernandes available after they served one-game bans against Newcastle. Mainoo is likely to come in to midfield alongside them.
Mason Mount, Victor Lindelof and Luke Shaw are all missing, Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho will hope to start after being on the bench on Monday.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Diaz.
Manchester United: Onana; Yoro, Maguire, Martinez; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Mainoo, Dalot; Diallo, Fernandes, Hojlund.
Match facts
- Liverpool have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games against Manchester United (W7 D5), going down 2-1 at Old Trafford in August 2022.
- Manchester United haven’t won any of their last eight league away games against Liverpool (D4 L4), their longest such run since a run of nine between 1970 and 1979.
- Manchester United have scored just one goal in their last eight Premier League away games against Liverpool, failing to score in each of the last five. Only at Everton have they had a longer run without scoring in their league history (6 between 1969 and 1974).
- This is the first time Liverpool and Manchester United are facing each other in their first league match of a calendar year since 1989, when the Red Devils won 3-1 at Old Trafford on New Year’s Day.
- Liverpool beat Newcastle 4-2 in their first league match of 2024 – the last time they won their opening league game in consecutive calendar years was in 2013/2014.
- Liverpool have won their last three Premier League matches, scoring 3+ goals in each victory with 14 goals in total. They last had a longer winning run while scoring three or more goals in each win in February/March 2014 (six in a row).Manchester United have lost their last three Premier League games. They haven’t lost four league games in a row in the same season since between December and February 1979, while they last suffered four defeats in a row without scoring back in April 1909.
- Following their 3-0 win at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture, Arne Slot could become just the second Liverpool manager to do the league double over Manchester United in his first season with the club, after George Kay in 1936-37.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has both scored more goals (12) and provided more assists (6) against Manchester United than any other player in Premier League history.
- Mohamed Salah has been involved in 30 Premier League goals this season for Liverpool (17 goals, 13 assists), scoring and assisting in eight different games, already the most by a player in a single campaign ever. It is the fifth time he has 30+ goal involvements in a season (also 2017-18, 2018-19, 2021-22 and 2022-23), the joint most of any player in Premier League history along with Alan Shearer.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (3/1/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
