- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 170pts | Returned 168.46pts | P/L -1.54pts | ROI -0.9%
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pt Manchester United or draw (double chance) and Andre Onana to be carded vs Liverpool at 18/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Manchester United to win and Andre Onana to be carded at 60/1 (bet365)
I have done something unprecedented for the column this week and thoroughly researched.
I spent New Years Eve systematically going through the best referees when it comes to keeper cards and now I am convinced I have cracked the code. What a way to welcome in 2025.
It is why this weekend's edition I have the usual trixie of keeper card, underdog combinations and they are a blend of brazen, no nonsense whistleblowers and shyster keepers.
We also have a few shots at generational wealth to the tune of 1,200/1 and 13,800/1 punts.
Could this be the weekend the stars align? I hope so.
Liverpool vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 8/1
MANCHESTER UNITED are 10/1 to win at Anfield on Sunday.
For context, they were 8/1 ahead of the stalemate last season and 9/5 in the trip before which they lost 7-0.
For further context, Fulham, Brighton, Aston Villa, West Ham and Bournemouth all went off shorter at Liverpool this season. Nottingham Forest and Brentford were only marginally bigger odds.
It tells you everything you need to know about the predicament Ruben Amorim’s side is in.
The Red Devils start gameweek 20 in 13th, closer to the relegation zone then the top six, and their new manager conceded after the most recent loss they are in a relegation battle.
Since he took charge at Old Trafford, his side have taken seven points from the 24 on offer and lost five times.
Pretty bleak. Well, can I shock you? I want to side with them on Sunday.
Part of the reason is I am hell bent on keeper cards but another major factor is Amorim's set up in the big games.
So far, Man Utd have won at the Etihad and lost at the Emirates.
The 2-1 win over Manchester City was a dreadful game between two out of form sides but against Arsenal, Man Utd looked to contain and counter and almost got a result. The first half was uneventful but two goals from corners were their undoing after the interval.
It is a big if against the runaway leaders but if Man Utd can execute the game plan to perfection in Merseyside, they might get a result and coupling a result with ANDRE ONANA TO BE CARDED at monstrous odds is absolutely the way to go.
Onana has picked up seven cards in all competitions for Man Utd and one came against Sunday’s opponents.
Crucially, Michael Oliver is the referee, a man who has booked four keepers in 15 Premier League appearances this term.
Although I am fully prepared to watch Liverpool annihilate Man Utd, backing the visitors TO WIN and WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE will be something fun to cheer on.
Generational wealth
If you have made it this far, you’ll understand why combining the three keepers to be carded and their respective teams to win makes sense in a trixie at 13,831/1. The keepers and sides in question are; Trafford and Burnley, Pickford and Everton, Onana and Man Utd.
Already advised
1pt Burnley or draw (double chance) and James Trafford to be carded vs Blackburn at 7/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
1pt Burnley to win and James Trafford to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt Everton or draw (double chance) and Jordan Pickford to be carded vs Bournemouth at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Everton to win and Jordan Pickford to be carded at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Murray Wallace to score anytime in Sheff Wed vs Millwall at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Wallace to score anytime and Joe Bryan 1+ assist at 95/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Japhet Tanganga to score anytime and Bryan 1+ assist at 75/1 (bet365)
1pt Watford to win and BTTS vs Sheffield United at 24/5 (William Hill)
0.5pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score a header and Declan Rice 1+ assist in Brighton vs Arsenal at 35/1 (bet365)
1pt Trafford, Pickford, Onana carded and Burnley, Everton, Man Utd double chance trixie at 1,215/1 (bet365)
1pt Barbastro +1.0 Asian handicap vs Barcelona at 21/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Barbastro to beat Barcelona at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Blackburn vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 12/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 23/20
The East Lancashire derby in the lunch time Championship kick off is ticking all the keeper card boxes.
Most importantly, Andrew Kitchen is a good referee appointment. He doesn’t take much flak from stoppers, booking four for time wasting in 34 league appearances since the beginning of last season.
The rivalry aspect is also a huge plus. The players will push the limits to get a result and the proof is in the pudding. Blackburn’s keeper Aynsley Pears was booked for time wasting in the reverse and Arijanet Muric was carded in the game before.
BURNLEY are also an extremely fine margin side. There has been a goal or less between them and their opponents in 19 of their 25 league games, seven of which have ended goalless.
Best of all, the Clarets keeper JAMES TRAFFORD is a fiend. He has notched up five cards in the league already this season, four for time wasting and all bar one have come in his last 10 appearances.
Combining him TO BE CARDED alongside the away team TO WIN as well as WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is obviously the play.
- CLICK HERE to back Burnley win and James Trafford card with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Burnley double chance and James Trafford card with Sky Bet
Bournemouth vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/11 | Draw 11/4 | Away 10/3
In a clash where EVERTON are playing away, backing them TO WIN and WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE alongside JORDAN PICKFORD TO BE CARDED almost makes too much sense.
- CLICK HERE to back Everton win and Jordan Pickford card with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Everton double chance and Jordan Pickford card with Sky Bet
Everyone will be familiar with Pickford’s game. He has three cards in his last four Premier League appearances and 15 in the league across his last three seasons. My favourite stat though, is he has been booked in 28% of the games Everton have picked up a result since the beginning of last term.
And I think they get a result on the south coast.
Since their disastrous opening month of the campaign, Sean Dyche’s side have only lost three of their last 14 league games and their defensive approach should cause the high-pressing Cherries some issues.
John Brooks is the referee, a man who has booked two keepers for time wasting in 10 appearances this season and five across his last 18 games.
This one is tipped with Sky Bet where you will have to select Everton (+1.0) on the goal handicap which is their version of double chance.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Millwall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 5/2
We got one heck of a set-piece mismatch in the Championship at Hillsborough.
Millwall, as ever, are dead ball dangers. Their dead ball xG total of 12.16 is the most in the division and it will certainly be an avenue they could exploit against the Owls, a side who have shipped 12.75 xGA and 13 actual goals this term from such situations.
Greg Leigh (Oxford), Connor Ogilvie (Portsmouth), Dennis Cirkin (Sunderland) and Luke O’Nien (Sunderland) have all profited from corners against Wednesday as did Jake Cooper in the reverse.
With Cooper out injured, JAPHET TANGANGA and MURRAY WALLACE are expected to start in central defence for the visitors and both are worth backing TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Selflessly, I made Duffman put Tanganga up in his column but Wallace is worth covering as well. Although he has not yet scored this season, he has shown to be a threat.
I’ll also be taking both defenders to score alongside a JOE BRYAN 1+ ASSIST with the bet365 bet builder. The thinking being one of the Lions centre backs scores directly from a Bryan corner. Ambitious, I know.
Watford vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 29/20
Sheffield United have only taken one point from their last three games against Burnley, West Brom and Sunderland. Although the schedule has been tough, it is probably more a consequence of losing their best defender, best defensive midfielder and most creative striker.
Oddly enough, you take away the Blades' firepower and defensive solidarity and the points dry up. Weird.
Reinforcements are needed this window but with little movement so far, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to get the visitors onside, especially against WATFORD.
The Hornets have the joint-second best home record in the division, behind only Leeds, and five of their nine wins have also seen BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Backing the hosts to edge a goal laden affair is the way in at Vicarage Road.
Brighton vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 10/3 | Draw 14/5 | Away 8/11
If you combine GABRIEL MAGALHAES TO SCORE A HEADER with DECLAN RICE 1+ ASSIST on bet365’s bet builder it pays out at 35/1.
It is centred around Arsenal’s unbelievable corner kicks. No Premier League side can better their xG tally (9.91) or goals scored (9) from set pieces, and since the beginning of last season they have scored 23 times from corners.
Centre back Gabriel has scored seven league goals since the start of the 23/24 campaign, all headers from set pieces. The majority are assisted by Bukayo Saka but with him out injured we’re just taking Rice to set up the headed goal. In all competitions, the midfielder has assisted four of Gabriel's goals across the last two seasons.
Barbastro vs Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Live Streaming
- Home 14/1 | Draw 7/1 | Away 1/14
This bet almost didn’t make the cut through negligence.
I put a reminder in my old 2024 diary that I forgot to put in my new 2025 diary telling myself to get against Barcelona at any given opportunity until the return of Lamine Yamal.
And I don’t think opportunities get better than on Saturday where Barca head to fourth tier side BARBASTRO in the Copa Del Rey.
Barcelona always struggle without Yamal.
Atletico Madrid became the latest to capitalise before Christmas, joining Osasuna, Real Sociedad, Celta Vigo and Las Palmas in a list of sides to take points from Barca in Yamal’s absence. With their star boy in the starting XI, Barca have played 14 La Liga games, won 12 and taken 37 points from the 42 on offer.
Coincidently, these sides also met in this stage of this competition last season where an almost full strength Barcelona narrowly won 3-2.
Barbastro have pedigree against La Liga sides, beating Espanyol in the last round 2-0 despite only having three shots and 26% possession.
We also have to factor in Barca’s schedule. Four days after this game they play Athletic Club in the Supercopa de Espana in Saudi Arabia.
Not only does siding with the visitors TO WIN appeals but I will also be taking them +1.0 on the ASIAN HANDICAP, the latter giving us money back should the minnows lose by a solitary goal, and a full pay out if they avoid defeat in 90 minutes.
Odds correct at 1345 GMT (03/01/24)
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