Italy and England meet at Wembley in the final of Euro 2020 and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Italy v England
1pt Both Teams To Score in 90 minutes at 5/4 (SportNation)
1pt Under 8 corners in 90 minutes at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Under 3.5 cards in the match in 90 minutes at 11/10 (Paddy Power)
Miscarriages of justice are part and parcel of sport, and of football in particular. They are why we love the game, and why at points it drives us to the utter edge.
Fortunately, whatever happens in the final of Euro 2020, both Italy and England will feel, on the balance of everything, that they deserve to be there, and they would be correct; particularly Italy given they were one of Sporting Life’s outright tips to lift the trophy.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: BBC One & ITV
Venue: Wembley Stadium - London, England
Italy 2/1 | Draw 2/1 | England 6/4
Italy began the tournament like an unstoppable juggernaut, thrashing both Turkey and Switzerland 3-0 – particularly impressive feats given the Azzurri had never before in their history scored more than two goals in a single match at a European Championship.
A routine 1-0 victory over Wales saw them claim maximum points from the group stage, and at that point it was difficult not envisaging the Italians cruising their way to Euro glory without conceding so much as a shot, let alone a goal.
Their round of 16 fixture against Austria was not exactly plain sailing, however, needing extra time to see off Franco Foda’s side, but they put their foot back on the gas against Belgium in the quarter-final, producing a sublime first-half performance before giving Roberto Martinez’s men a lesson in how to see out a football match.
Italy have been involved in arguably the two best games of the tournament, their quarter-final against Belgium, and then the semi-final against Spain.
Spain took the game to Italy and pretty much overawed them playing in the style that, up to that point, Roberto Mancini’s men had been accustomed to playing; pressing high and with extreme intensity.
It was all the more impressive then that Italy retreated into a traditional Italian shape and defended the Spaniards, nicking a goal on the break before Alvaro Morata leveled to take the game into extra-time.
Italy won on penalties, but the fact that the Azzurri are completely comfortable with two extremely different styles of play will make them incredibly difficult to beat.
Southgate's chameleons
Saying that, however, there probably hasn’t been a team at this tournament, or perhaps at any major international tournament, that have adapted quite like England have.
Gareth Southgate’s side have been the chameleons of Euro 2020, changing their outer layer on a game-by-game basis in order to exploit their opposition.
Two victories and a draw in the group stage saw them book a last 16 tie against their old arch enemy Germany, and it was through matching up the Germans’ formation that England were able to emerge victorious.
A comfortable 4-0 hammering of Ukraine in the quarter-final, a game in which Southgate opted for a more offensive approach, put England into a third semi-final in three years, where they overcame Denmark thanks to an extra-time goal from Harry Kane – a penalty he definitely meant to miss and put in on the rebound, so tired is he of everyone’s talk about the majority of his goals in the 2018 World Cup coming from the spot.
What to back in the final of Euro 2020?
The outcome of the fixture itself is too close to call, though after initially being surprised to see England priced up as favourites, when taking into account the home advantage (and not just having the crowd, but also having the benefit of training at home, and playing in your home country), that does seem correct.
In fact, England to win in 90 minutes at a price of 7/4 could be worth backing, but there are other markets worth exploring.
These two sides have only conceded four goals between them at Euro 2020, three for Italy and one for England, but only Spain have scored more goals than Italy’s 12, while England are now just two behind on 10.
Finals are supposed to be tight, they are supposed to be cagey, but then again, so were Italy’s quarter and semi-finals against Belgium and Spain, and they most certainly were not that.
If there is one team that is going to try and keep this game tight it is England, but that could spur the Italians on, and with the individual quality they possess, it is difficult to see them not grabbing a goal if England invite them on too much.
Conversely, England possess a scary amount of pace going the other way, scary that is if you are Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini.
The two Italian stalwarts have been fantastic yet again, but they will face a very different challenge should England harness the running power of their inside forwards, and that could be a goal a piece before the 90 is up.
Therefore, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at a standout price of 5/4 is recommended.
The stats markets are also worth a look in this fixture, and the corner market is the first port of call.
Italy and England both rank in the top six for most corners taken at Euro 2020, but given they have played more matches than most teams, that figure is a little distorted.
Italy have averaged 4.67 corners per match so far, England have averaged 4, while Italy have conceded an average of 3.83 corners per match compared to England’s 3.5.
By taking the average of the amount of corners Italy have been awarded and England have conceded, and vice versa, than adding together, we arrive at a corner spread of eight for the match.
Distribute that spread accordingly and a price of 7/4 for UNDER 8 CORNERS in the match makes plenty of appeal.
Consider also that half the games involving these two sides at the tournament so far have seen less than eight corners, while only two of the six knockout matches involving Italy and England have seen eight or more, and the selection begins to make even more appeal.
As well as corners, the card market is also worth a dabble, and despite Marco Verratti likely to be running about like an absolute lunatic for the first seven or so minutes, attempting more slides than a waterpark construction company, it is a lack of cards that is actually worth siding with.
England have averaged less than a card a game at the tournament so far, and in their last two matches a total of two yellow cards have been shown, either to or against England.
Italy have averaged just over one caution per match so far, and using the same logic as with the corners, we can identify a card spread for this match at 2.75.
With that in mind then, the 11/10 available about UNDER 3.5 CARDS is a bet worth getting on side.
Sunday evening, 8pm. England as a nation will go through the most stressful 90 minutes in 55 years, and if it doesn’t quite go the way many of us hope and pray it will, then perhaps we can find solace in a few winners.
Italy v England best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams To Score in 90 minutes at 5/4 (SportNation)
- 1pt Under 8 corners in 90 minutes at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Under 3.5 cards in the match in 90 minutes at 11/10 (Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Italy 1-1 England (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (08/07/21)
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