Football betting tips: World Cup qualifying
0.5pt Brennan Johnson to be carded at 17/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Jordan James to be carded at 13/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Johnson and James to be carded at 66/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 6/1
- Under 2.5 goals
- Brennan Johnson 1+ fouls
- Brennan Johnson to score or assist
Craig Bellamy is unbeaten in six games as Wales manager.
A return of 12 points from 18 available in the Nations League ensured promotion to League A. They went unbeaten at Cardiff City Stadium, scoring five and conceding only one goal; form they will no doubt want to replicate in World Cup qualifying.
Wales are second favourites at 4/1 to win Group J, behind Belgium (1/3). For context, Saturday's opponents are 25/1, though they mustn't be taken lightly.
Kazakhstan won six of their 10 Euro 2024 qualifiers including a double over Northern Ireland and wins over Denmark and Finland.
That said, the visitors are 110th in FIFA’s rankings, 81 places below Wales, but injuries to key personnel for the hosts could level the playing field.
As far as the betting is concerned, Wales’ price as heavy favourites has inflated their squad's prices in the player card market to quotes I couldn’t resist.
What are the best bets?
Donatas Rumsas is the referee and he has averaged 4.33 cards a game this season.
Across two Nations League appearances he dished out seven. The three World Cup qualification games he took charge of in 2021 saw zero, four and seven cards, although it is worth noting the no card game was an 8-0 win. In European qualifiers, he has averaged 2.67 cards in three appearances.
In the Nations League, Wales’ games had a total of 34 cards with 16 going the way of the Dragons.
Interestingly, BRENNAN JOHNSON was their serial offender with four and his price TO BE CARDED on Saturday looks huge at 17/2.
Tottenham’s attacker has a total of six cards across 26 competitive caps (0.38 cards per 90) but all of them have come in the 16 games he has started and all bar one have come since the beginning of 2024.
There certainly seems to have been a change in Johnson’s attitude since Bellamy took charge.
JORDAN JAMES' price TO BE CARDED also stands out.
James has seven bookings in 16 appearances for Wales and a domestic career card per 90 average of 0.28.
Combining the pair in a CARD DOUBLE at 60/1 is also worth a punt.
Team news
Wales captain Aaron Ramsey is unavailable for the remainder of the season, the 34-year-old has made just eight appearances in the Championship for Cardiff this term.
Ethan Ampadu (knee) and Harry Wilson (foot) are also ruled out - the latter has scored four goals in his last five international outings.
Rangers’ Tom Lawrence is back in the squad after a four-year absence but may have to settle for a spot on the bench with Mark Harris expected to lead the line, supported by Johnson, Liam Cullen and Dan James.
Both Danny Ward and Karl Darlow are competing to start in goal. Neither are first choice at club level and Bellamy split their game time in the Nations League.
Predicted line-ups
Wales: Ward; Williams, Mepham, Cabango, Davies; J. James, Sheehan; Johnson, Cullen, D. James; Harris.
Kazakhstan: Pokatilov; S. Astanov, Kasym, Marochkin, Bystrov, Vorogovskiy; Tagybergen, Tapalov, Orazov; Aymbetov, Samorodov.
Match facts
- This will be the first ever meeting between Wales and Kazakhstan in any competition.
- Kazakhstan have won three of their last four meetings with the British home nations (L1), beating Scotland in March 2019 and winning home and away against Northern Ireland in June and September 2023.
- Wales have lost just one of their last 16 matches in all competitions (W7 D8), a 4-0 defeat away at Slovakia in a friendly in June 2024. Their current run of 12 competitive matches unbeaten is the best run in their history (W6 D6).
- Kazakhstan have lost seven of their last eight competitive games (D1), including the last five in a row. They last had a longer losing run between November 2016 and October 2017 (six).
- Wales have lost just two of their last 22 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (W11 D9), though one of those defeats was in their first game of the last qualifying campaign against Belgium in March 2021.
- Since beating the Faroe Islands in September 2013, Kazakhstan have won none of their last 21 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (D7 L14). Among European nations, only San Marino (76) and Liechtenstein (41) are on longer winless runs currently.
- Harry Wilson has been involved in 10 goals in his last 12 starts for Wales in all competitions (6 goals, 4 assists), scoring in four of his last five for the Red Dragons.
- The now retired Gareth Bale has scored each of Wales’ last three FIFA World Cup qualifying goals and this will be the first time Wales’ first match of a qualifying campaign will not feature Bale since September 2004 against Azerbaijan, a match that featured current boss Craig Bellamy in the Wales starting XI.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (21/03/25)
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