- Jake's Predictions: Staked 253.75pts | Returned 278.20pts | P/L +24.45pts | ROI 10%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Sasa Lukic to be carded in Fulham vs Ipswich (14:00) at 19/5 (Unibet)
2pts Liverpool -1 handicap vs Man Utd (16:30) at 5/6 (William Hill)
0.25pts Mohamed Salah to score a header at 22/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.25pts Bruno Fernandes to be sent off at 45/1 (Unibet)
The post-Boxing Day fixtures didn't go to plan for us, making a small loss, but the column is still in a healthy position as we begin 2025.
This weekend there are plenty of strong fancies across the board, and some great value to be had, particularly, I believe in the shots markets - be it player or team.
Fingers crossed we can bring in the New Year with plenty of winners this weekend.
Fulham vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Away 9/2
I find this a very tough game to call. Fulham are undoubtedly the better team, but they just draw too many games to back them confidently at 3/5 ish. It's eight draws in 19 league games, and five in their last seven.
Instead, cards could be the way in here, with Fulham home games averaging 4.8 cards and Ipswich away matches seeing 4.56 per game. One player who looks overpriced TO BE CARDED is SASA LUKIC, who is bizarrely available at a huge 19/5.
The Serbian should start here having started the Cottagers' last two games with Sander Berge injured, and he already has a whopping seven cards to his name. SEVEN. That's the joint second most in the division, so I'm scratching my head as to why there are 15 players priced shorter than him to be carded this weekend.
Not only has he had his name taken seven times already, he's averaged 2.34 fouls per 90, and with a good referee appointment (Darren Bond - 4.63 cards per game in PL this season) and a couple of awkward opponents around him in Liam Delap (1.71 fouls won per 90) and Omari Hutchinson (1.46), his near 4/1 price to be carded again looks too big to turn down.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Liverpool vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 8/1
Where to start with this one. It seems pretty inconceivable that Manchester United go to Anfield and get a victory, or even a point, given the way these two rivals are playing right now.
The Red Devils have lost five of Ruben Amorim's eight league games in charge, the last three to nil, while Liverpool have won 23 of 27 across all compeitions under Arne Slot their last three scoring 14 times in the process. So, it does seem a matter how the hosts win as oppose to will they.
I think LIVERPOOL -1 HANDICAP looks overpriced at 5/6 given their record at home.
The Reds have won by two clear goals in nine of 13 at Anfield in all competitions, meaning this bet has won a whopping 69% of the time. Given the level of opponent they are facing this weekend, I am surprised we can get near evens for this.
After all, we are talking about the best team in the league, on actual and expected data, against a mid-to-bottom half team.
Newcastle exploited the Lisandro Martinez issue on Monday, with a cross from the left to the back-post seeing a favourable aerial match-up for Joelinton, who duly beat the smaller Martinez to nod home. I do wonder if Liverpool could expose that again here, making MOHAMED SALAH TO SCORE A HEADER worth small consideration.
The Egyptian King is having a simply sensational season, but is yet to register a single shot with his head, meaning this bet will be the smallest of stakes, and is more to do with a potential weakness that could be exploited.
Salah is odds-on to score anytime, and 22/1 to score a header. The same bet is 3/1 with Unibet who are taking no chances at all. He did score two back-post headers last season and one the season before - which coincidentally came against United - so has shown he is capable of doing so, and he'll like this match up.
I'll also have the smallest of stakes on BRUNO FERNANDES TO BE SENT OFF at a huge 45/1.
The Portuguese midfielder is petulant to say the least, and has gone overboard this season, being sent off three times in 23 matches across domestic and European contests.
One may have been harsh (vs Tottenham), but he has been flying in recklessly, giving the referee serious decisions to make. Frustrations could boil over here if Liverpool start racking up a score, and he could lash out. Two yellows is also a real possibility given the way Amorim wants his side to press.
Michael Oliver is the man in charge, and he has already produced one red card in a big game this season, sending off Leandro Trossard in the first half of Manchester City vs Arsenal for two yellows, one for kicking the ball away - something you can absolutely see Fernandes doing.
While he is just returning from his latest suspension for a straight red, it is worth noting that his two previous red cards came in back-to-back games, so it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he loses his head again here, especially if things get ugly.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 28
- Manchester City 2-1 West Ham
- Crystal Palace 1-1 Chelsea
- Aston Villa 3-0 Leicester
- Brighton 0-2 Arsenal
- Fulham 1-1 Ipswich
- Liverpool 3-0 Manchester United
Already advised
1pt Lloyd Kelly 1+ total shot in Tottenham vs Newcastle at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Joelinton 2+ total shots in Tottenham vs Newcastle at 13/8 (Betway)
2pts Aston Villa 19+ total shots vs Leicester at 19/20 (Unibet)
1pt Bournemouth to win to nil vs Everton at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Daniel Munoz 1+ shot on target in Palace vs Chelsea at 13/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor)
1.5pts Mohammed Kudus 1+ shot on target in Man City vs West Ham at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Southampton 14+ total shots vs Brentford at 4/5 (Unibet)
2pts Thomas Partey 3+ tackles in Brighton vs Arsenal at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Tottenham vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/4 | Draw 29/10 | Away 6/5
The longer Spurs are without their starting backline, the more they will become a mid-table team destined to miss out on Europe via the league route. And, the longer this poor run of form goes on (W2 D2 L5) the more likely it is we see Ange Postecoglou prioritise the Carabao Cup - of which the first leg of their semi-final takes place on Wednesday - and the Europa League.
All of this is to say I don't expect to see any change in their league performances or results any time soon, so Newcastle to win did appeal here at 13/10, especially after the beat another member of the so-called 'big six' on the road last time out.
But, the angle I like is one of shots, and specifically those by Newcastle players. LLOYD KELLY should be thrust into the Magpies' starting XI due to injuries and a suspension for Fabian Schar, and he can be the latest centre-back to take advantage of Spurs' set-piece weakness and register 1+ TOTAL SHOT.
Only Southampton, Leicester and Manchester United have allowed more xGA from dead ball situations than Spurs this season, while only four sides have conceded more goals from such scenarios.
Last time out at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium against Wolves, all three visiting centre-backs registered a shot - two from corners - before that Nikola Milenkovic squandered a great chance from a corner for Nottingham Forest. Two Manchester United CB's had a shot in the Carabao Cup quarter final, with Jonny Evans scoring, and even a Southampton centre-back had a shot in a game Spurs won 5-0.
Kelly has started only five games this season and registered two shots for a 0.61 per 90 average. One of his shots came in the reverse game against Spurs, and his other came in his last start. 11/8 looks generous against this Spurs backline.
I also have to back JOELINTON 2+ SHOTS as well here at 13/8, with the Brazilian looking a real attacking threat of late, scoring in both of his last two outings. The same bet is 8/13 in places.
Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali have started forming a very strong partnership at the base of midfield, allowing Joelinton to join Newcastle attacks more freely, and he's been a driving force of their recent success. He also offers a big threat from set-pieces too.
All in all this season he's averaging an impressive 1.91 shots per 90, so the price available already looks large before we factor in his recent outings that have seen him fire 13 shots in his last five games at an average of 2.83 per 90.
This bet would have won in four of those last five, and in 10 of his 18 appearances this season, so with Spurs leaking shots lately (16.4 per game across their last 11), Joelinton looks well priced have a couple of attempts.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-3 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Aston Villa vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/10 | Draw 17/4 | Away 15/2
I fully expect Aston Villa to win this game very comfortably. Not only are they a great home team, but Leicester are just woeful at the minute.
Since beginning life under Ruud van Nistelrooy with four points in two games, it's been four straight defeats, with 12 goals conceded. Villa will be licking their lips here and could rack up a score.
The question, then, is what angle to take? I've put Villa -2 handicap in a speculative acca above, so it could be that shots is the way to go. ASTON VILLA 19+ TOTAL SHOTS looks a solid bet at 19/20 here and that'll be the way in for us.
Leicester are the second leakiest team in the entire division, the Foxes allowing 17.8 shots per game, but that number increases to 19.1 per game when they travel, so we only need a standard Leicester display for this bet to land.
Digging further, in their seven away games against non-fellow-promoted sides - ie Southampton and Ipswich - Leicester concede an average of 20.8 shots, 3.13 goals and 2.53 xGA per game. That is tragically bad, and means Villa should dominate.
Unai Emery's men haven't been crazy for shots, but at home have averaged 15.0 per game and 17+ in half of their contests. They come into this fresh off a frustrating draw against Brighton in which they deserved the win and racked up 20 shots in the process.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Bournemouth vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/2
Only the current bottom three have offered less attacking threat away from home this season than Everton, according to expected goals (0.9 per game), while only Southampton (5) have scored fewer than Sean Dyche's men (6).
That immediately draws my attention to BOURNEMOUTH WINNING TO NIL, and we are being offered a very generous price of 9/4.
The Toffees have drawn 10 blanks in 19 Premier League games this season, with seven of those coming in their last nine, highlighting a real issue going forward. They have failed to score in four of their last five away games, too.
Andoni Iraola's Cherries are one of the league's best home teams, ranking fifth in terms of xGD per game (+0.94), with only four teams conceding fewer expected goals in front of their own fans than Bournemouth (1.05 per game).
They have been extremely unfortunate not to have more than four home wins this season, winning the non-penalty xG battle in all nine matches, and they have kept three clean sheets in their last six matches at the Vitality, including against Tottenham and Manchester City, sides far superior to Everton in attack.
I'll happily take the chance of another attacking struggle from Everton, coupled with another dominant home display from Bournemouth.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/2 | Draw 11/4 | Away 10/11
Chelsea have gone from title contenders to being questioned on whether they can and will finish in the top four. The Blues are winless in three and have lost two straight heading to a dangerous Crystal Palace team.
The Eagles are in good form, surging clear of a relegation scrap, and will not be scared of their visitors on Saturday. One of their standout players this season has been DANIEL MUNOZ, and his price to register 1+ SHOT ON TARGET looks massive.
The Colombian really is one of Palace's biggest attacking threats, and has landed a shot on target in five of his last six league games and in all of his last four at Selhurst Park, where he is given even more license to roam forward.
In his last four home matches he's averaged 0.5 xG per 90, which highlights how he has been getting on the end of good scoring chances and not just firing attempts from distance, which increases the confidence in him registering another shot on target this weekend.
He's 10/1 to score anytime for those interested.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Manchester City vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 19/4 | Away 7/1
Manchester City picked up a rare win last time out, beating struggling Leicester for their second success in 14, though they did lose the xG battle again, suggesting things are not going to get back to normal anytime soon.
That doesn't mean I want to back West Ham in any way shape or form though. The Hammers have been literally hammered whenever they've played a top attacking side - which City still are - with Liverpool hitting them for five twice, Arsenal firing five past them, Tottenham hitting them for four and Chelsea, Forest and City scoring three against them.
All in all, against sides currently in the top six, the Hammers are W1 L7 conceding 28 times. City could well rack up a score here, and with no Jarrod Bowen, West Ham's attacking threat will be diminished, but MOHAMMED KUDUS looks key at the Etihad.
He is the perfect kind of player to take advantage of this current City team and their issues in transitions, so his price for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET looks worth a bet at 13/10.
This Kudus is a shoot-on-sight type player, averaging 3.16 shots per 90 and 1.16 shots on target per 90. This bet has won in eight of his last 10 outings, and he should relish playing on the counter and running at this vulnerable defence.
If this were a somewhat more solid City backline, I'd certainly be looking at backing a big home win, but in their current guise, I can't back it with confidence.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Southampton vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/5
It looks bleak for Southampton, but this looks a really good opportunity for them to pick up a rare win. They take on a depleted looking Brentford who have had less rest time - the Bees playing on New Year's Day so three days rest and the Saints playing on the 29th so a full 6 days off.
I still can't fully trust them to get a win, but their shot lines look interesting. We can back SOUTHAMPTON 14+ SHOTS at 4/5 looks a cracking bet.
Not only did Southampton fire 18 attempts in their last home game against West Ham, Ivan Juric's first at St. Mary's, but they also hit 18 against Brentford earlier in the season at the Gtech. Add into this that the Bees have faced the MOST most shots this season - an average of 18.2 - and this bet looks very nice.
Away from home, Thomas Frank's side have played 10 Premier League teams this season and have conceded 14+ in all 10, allowing a whopping 22.8 shots per game. Granted, the level of opponent has been better than Southampton, but I think that line is more than manageable for a Saints team who simply have to be proactive.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Brighton vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 16/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/4
Brighton are struggling right now and the last thing they need is to be welcoming an Arsenal side with the bit between their teeth. The Seagulls are winless in seven, the Gunners winning nine of an unbeaten 11 across all competitions since the last international break.
I fully expect Arsenal to get the win and 4/5 for an away win did appeal, but there appears to be even more value available with THOMAS PARTEY 3+ TACKLES priced at a whopping 5/4 with Ladbrokes and Coral, with evens (bet365) still a cracking bet - the same bet is 1/4 in places.
With Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu out injured and Jurrien Timber suspended, we should see Partey play at right back, meaning he will be directly up against Kaoru Mitoma and an overlapping Pervis Estupinan.
Opposing right backs against Brighton have averaged a whopping 3.7 tackles per game this season, with 3+ tackles paying out in 14 of the 17 games which Mitoma has started on the left wing.
Add into this the fact that Partey is averaging 2.95 tackles per 90 this season predominantly as a central midfielder, and the 5/4 on offer this weekend looks an incredible price.
Score prediction: Brighton 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1100 (03/01/25)
Sunday's matches odds correct at 1530 (03/01/25)
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