Boxing betting tips: Terrence Crawford v Errol Spence Jr live on TNT Sports Box Office

Boxing betting tips: Crawford v Spence Jr

2pts Terrence Crawford to win by decision 15/8 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Terrence Crawford versus Errol Spence Jr is finally here.

Even the most optimistic of boxing fans may struggle to believe that sentence, but after years of frustration that the two leading welterweights in the world couldn’t get it on, Crawford and Spence do battle in the early hours of Sunday morning for all the belts at 147lb in a legacy-defining fight for the ages.

Ideally, this would have happened three or four years ago and, in that respect, it has similarities to the last mega-fight in this division - Floyd Mayweather against Manny Pacquiao. However, unlike that 2015 blockbuster between the ageing superstars, both combatants at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend are still unbeaten and very much at the peak of their powers.

Crawford and Spence may be 35 and 33 respectively, but neither has shown any signs of decline, nor have they even come close to losing. The fact that it is 37 years since there was an undisputed champion in the welterweight division tells you all that is wrong with the sport these days, but it also highlights how special this contest is, and the difficulty with which it is to choose a winner makes it even more fascinating. There is little between them in the betting, with Crawford edging favouritism at 4/6 against the 6/4 of Spence, and that is echoed in the opinions of the public and media in predicting the victor.

Crawford v Spence Jr: Big-fight details

• Date and venue: Saturday July 29 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
• Main event ringwalks (approx): 0400 BST (Sunday July 30)
• Belts: WBA, WBC, IBF and WBO welterweight titles
• TV Channel: TNT Sports Box Office (pay-per-view event and will cost fans £19.95)
• Radio: Live on talkSPORT

Crawford first became a world champion when travelling to Scotland and comfortably outpointing Ricky Burns in 2014, doing so in style and observers haven’t stopped waxing lyrical about his talents since. He moved up to super lightweight the following year and, seven wins later, he had completed the set of 140lb belts. Then came the step up to this division, where he has rattled off seven emphatic victories and he enters the biggest fight of his life with a fantastic record 39-0 (30 early).

Spence (28-0) also picked up his first world title in the UK, when breaking the heart and face of Kell Brook to claim the latter’s IBF strap via an 11th round stoppage in 2017, and his six subsequent wins have been as impressive as they have been exciting. He took the ‘0’ of four-weight champion Mikey Garcia, before also claiming the WBC title from the explosive Shawn Porter (SD) and the WBA belt from Yordenis Ugas (TKO 10) when last seen 15 months ago. He has ensured that 22 of his victims have failed to hear the final bell and his all-action style has won him an army of fans.

Analysing their respective CVs, it is Spence who arguably has the higher-quality names on his and he has generally been in bigger fights. On the other hand, Crawford has been beating good opposition for a longer period, and in three weight classes to boot, but it is the ease with which he has done so that really stands out. Rarely has he been flustered or in trouble, never mind look like losing.

Crawford has fared better against their two common foes but there is more to the story than that. While both were given their toughest fights to date against the aforementioned Porter, Spence was pushed to a split decision in a fight of the year contender and Crawford stopped the former champion in the 10th round of their 2021 clash. However, the latter contest was very close on the scorecards at the time of the finish, and it also came two years after Porter’s war with Spence, which could have left its mark on the loser. They have both also beaten Brook inside the distance, but Spence fought a much better version of the Sheffield man than Crawford, who got rid of him seven rounds earlier (TKO 4) when they clashed four years later.

Spence has an inch and a half height advantage, but the 5’8” Crawford has the longer reach with a two-inch greater wingspan. The latter has risen through the weights, and it is Spence who is the naturally bigger man, but being a career-long welterweight also has its downsides as making 147lb has never been plain sailing for him and it certainly won’t be any easier as he approaches his mid-30s.

Both men carry power, as evidenced by their respective knockout percentages, but they have generally achieved stoppages in different manners. Spence doesn’t have one-punch knockout power but, instead, wears you down with his constant output of heavy artillery until you’ve had enough. Conversely, Crawford is more explosive and, when he smells blood, can rapidly close the show in brutal fashion.

Spence is noted for his high work rate and, with an excellent engine, he can press the action from the first round to the last. Excellent up close and at range, he works his way in behind his excellent jab and, once inside, he is very busy with his fast hands. He does all the basics very well and not only is he great to watch when in full flow, his perpetual forward motion can also be very hard to stop.

Crawford is more of a complete fighter and there is nothing he can’t do in the ring. Possibly one of the most adept switch-hitters the sport has ever seen, he is brilliant from either stance and has such a varied arsenal of weapons that he is very hard to read. His sublime skills and calmness under pressure enable him to quickly figure out how to crack the code in front of him before reacting accordingly with the perfect tactics. Once he has his man worked out, it is usually one-way traffic from there on in.

As all the above highlights, these are two highly-skilled operators who are very hard to separate in every department and choosing which man to side with comes down to the finest of margins.

The pair have been champions simultaneously at welterweight for just over five years and, had this fight happened around that time when it was first mooted, then we may have seen a different result as a lot has happened since then. Firstly, Crawford is the naturally smaller man and would have still been growing into the weight, but the biggest factor in the intervening period could be what Spence has been through. In October 2019, the Dallas native crashed his car while intoxicated, suffering facial and dental injuries when ejected from his vehicle, and he was also involved in another collision in December last year which caused damage to his leg. In between those two accidents, he also had to withdraw from a fight with Pacquiao due to a retinal detachment in his left eye.

Those issues have caused him to fight only twice in nearly four years and while he looked as good as ever against Ugas in April 2022, the inactivity and the potential of any lasting damage must be a concern. He has been accused of not ‘living the life’ outside training camp, whereas Crawford is renowned for being the consummate professional and the fact the latter is two years older than his rival here isn’t too much of a concern. Also, Crawford is now a fully-fledged welterweight and has stopped all seven opponents since stepping up to the division, so any fears that he wasn’t big enough for the weight have long been allayed.

Crawford hasn’t been super active over the last few years, but he has been more active than Spence and it is only eight months since his last outing against David Avanesyan, who was the ideal preparation for this latest test. Like Spence, Avanesyan is constantly on the front foot and applying pressure, but Crawford comfortably controlled the fight with his jab and brilliant footwork before quickly halting his man when going through the gears in the sixth round.

It will be fascinating to see who can employ their tactics here. Spence is brilliant up close and has yet to be prevented from getting inside to chop away with his hurtful combinations, but Crawford is a master of controlling distance with his long levers and fast feet. If the underdog isn’t halted in his tracks, then Spence will be throwing pounding shots aplenty up close, and that activity can really catch the eye of the judges. However, while Crawford may not have the output to match, he rarely wastes a shot when his opponents are in range and those sniper-like counters can do serious damage.

If you had to pick a fault with Crawford, it is that he can be a slow starter and Spence will be aiming to capitalise on that by being quick out of the blocks. However, as we have seen so often, Crawford isn’t just taking his time to get going in the early rounds, he is assessing what his opponent can do and quickly working out the game plan he needs to win the fight. It is that versatility, along with concerns over Spence’s inactivity and previous injuries, that lead me to side with Crawford in this mouthwatering contest.

It’s easy to see Spence opening an early lead on the cards, but Crawford simply won’t allow that to be a big one and expect some brilliant back-and-forth action through the early and middle rounds as these two top-class pugilists play a violent chess match of the highest order. Spence’s fitness and will to win won’t stop him advancing, but Crawford’s accurate counters can become more frequent and vicious as his opponent slows down a little. With this in mind, the second half of the fight could be when the favourite really takes over and sweeps a run of rounds on the scorecards.

Crawford’s track record of quickly upping the intensity and getting rid of people at welterweight make the 7/1 for him to win in rounds 9-12 interesting. However, neither man has ever been in trouble before so, despite their respective knockout records, I see this being a 12-rounder and that theory is backed up by the 4/7 about it going the distance.

Crawford’s ability to adapt and overcome any style could be the deciding factor and I fancy him to win by decision at 15/8, albeit it a close and hotly-debated one. If that is case, the demand for the rematch (which is already agreed) will be even greater than the first fight and we could then have a historic trilogy on our hands.

• CLICK HERE to back Crawford to win on decision with Sky Bet

Crawford vs Spence Jr: Undercard

• Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford
• Nonito Donaire vs Alexandro Santiago
• Isaac Cruz vs Giovanni Cabrera
• Jesus Alejandro Ramos vs Sergio Garcia
• Gurgen Hovhannisyan vs Viktor Vykhryst
• Steven Nelson vs Rowdy Montgomery
• Jose Salas Reyes vs Aston Palicte

Posted at 1350 BST on 28/07/23

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