Ah, the beauty of the schedule. With Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final as well as still being in the Champions League, their league game with Aston Villa has been brought forward, and into a very inopportune time for the Reds.

That's because this will be their 18th game in 63 days, playing effectively every three and a half days since mid-December. To make matters worst, the games seem to be getting tougher.

After defeat to Plymouth in the FA Cup with a second string, the Reds headed to their Merseyside rivals and were out-played in a 2-2 draw before being out-played again at the weekend against Wolves, being fortunate to get three points.

Now they head to Villa Park to take on an Aston Villa side unbeaten at home in 18 matches across league, Champions League and FA Cup contests. After what will be a tough game on Wednesday, Arne Slot's men visit Manchester City at the weekend before hosting Newcastle next midweek, making this a potentially title-defining seven days.

It's also a big game for hosts Villa, who are now winless in four league games and down to ninth in the table. They are six points off fourth and five behind fifth, so need to get back on the winning train if they are to secure Champions League football for a second season.

What are the best bets?

Liverpool's showings of late have been very concerning. Last week away at Everton they were out-shot 10-6 and lost the non-penalty xG battle 0.95 - 0.62, with that latter figure their lowest of the campaign.

Last time out against Wolves, Slot's side failed to register a single shot in the second half, again losing the shot battle (16-10) and the non-penalty xG battle (1.50 - 0.86).

They look vulnerable defensively, and recently, have looked much more flat in attack.

So, we should make a pro-ASTON VILLA bet on Wednesday.

Unai Emery's men have won 11, drawn seven and lost just one of their home games across the Premier League, UCL and FA Cup, with that sole defeat being their first home game of the campaign against Arsenal.

At even money, we should back them in the DOUBLE CHANCE market on Wednesday.

CLICK HERE to back Aston Villa double chance with Sky Bet

Villa Park is again a fortress after a mini-wobble, and Villa as a team are more than capable of bloodying the nose of the league leaders.

Their performances across those 19 games have in fact been better than the results would suggest, winning the xG battle in 16 of those contests, including in their only defeat to Arsenal where they were the better team.

Add in the fact that Villa looked very good at Anfield earlier in the season, and backing the hosts to get a result looks a solid proposition.

At half-time in the reverse game, Villa trailed 1-0 but had generated more xG (0.97-0.87) and more big chances (3-1), highlighting they have what it takes to trouble the league leaders.

Avoiding defeat will be the main bet, but I'll take a chance on VILLA OR DRAW AND EMI MARTINEZ TO BE CARDED at a double figure price.

CLICK HERE to back Aston Villa double chance with Sky Bet

If this game goes the way I expect, Villa's stopper will be up to the usual housery to waste as much time as possible.

Last time I put this bet up against Arsenal, a game Villa drew 2-2, the Argentine somehow avoided a booking despite taking an age on multiple occasions to take goal-kicks or free-kicks.

This time, we have a good appointment for a keeper card, with Craig Pawson booking three keepers in 14 league games this season, including Martinez himself earlier in the campaign.

Martinez has been booked 15 times across the last three and a half seasons, with 11 of those for time-wasting.

Team news

Aston Villa continue to be without some key players, with this game coming too soon for all of Pau Torres, Ross Barkley, Ezri Konsa, Amadou Onana and Matty Cash.

Boubacar Kamara came off injured at the weekend, and while it's not as serious as first feared, he is also unlikely to feature on Wednesday, and that should mean Tyrone Mings comes in at centre-back alongside Axel Disasi, who made his debut at the weekend.

Marcus Rashford was lively on during his second appearance, firing four shots in 45 minutes and could come in from the start after impressing, as could Marco Asensio.

Cody Gakpo is a doubt for Wednesday's game, as is Joe Gomez, while Curtis Jones is suspended following his red card in the Merseyside derby melé.

That means we should see a similar XI to the one that beat Wolves at the weekend, with the only potential changes being at full-back, where Arne Slot could continue to rotate Conor Bradley and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Predicted line-ups

Aston Villa: Martinez; Garcia, Disasi, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Tielemans; Asensio, Rogers, Rashford; Watkins

Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Jota Diaz

Match facts

Aston Villa have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D2 L11), a 7-2 victory at Villa Park in October 2020.
This exact fixture finished 3-3 last season – Liverpool haven’t failed to win consecutive away league games against Aston Villa since December 2004.
The last seven Premier League meetings between Aston Villa and Liverpool at Villa Park have produced a total of 33 goals, an average of 4.7 per game. Liverpool have scored at least twice in all seven of these games (20 goals in total).
Aston Villa have lost six of their last seven Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table; the exception, however, was their last such home game, beating Arsenal 1-0 in December 2023. They have never won back-to-back home meetings with league leaders in the competition before.
Liverpool remain the only side yet to lose away from home in the Premier League this season in 13 matches (W9 D4). In English top-flight history, on only five occasions has a side avoided defeat in their first 14+ matches on the road from the start of a campaign: Leeds United in 1973-74 (15), Liverpool in 1987-88 (15), Arsenal in 2001-02 (19), Arsenal in 2003-04 (19), and Manchester United in 2020-21 (19).
Liverpool are yet to lose a Premier League away game under Arne Slot, with his 13 games (W9 D4) the outright longest unbeaten start on the road by any manager in the competition’s history, surpassing the record set by John Gregory with Aston Villa of 12 games from March to November 1998.
Aston Villa’s Unai Emery has won just one of his 12 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D4 L7), winning the 2016 UEFA Europa League final 3-1 with Sevilla. Among opponents he has faced 5+ times in his managerial career, that win rate of 8% against Liverpool is his lowest.
Only against Brighton (7) and Arsenal (6) has Ollie Watkins scored more goals in the Premier League than he has against Liverpool (5). However, after scoring five goals in his first five league appearances against the Reds, the striker has since failed to score in his last four against them.
With 14 goals and nine assists in Liverpool’s 13 away games in the Premier League this season, Mo Salah has the most ever goal involvements by a player away from home in a single campaign in the competition (23). He is also one assist away from becoming only the third player to assist 10+ goals in away games in a Premier League season, after Muzzy Izzet in 2003-04 (10) and Cesc Fàbregas in 2014-15 (11).
Aston Villa’s Marcus Rashford scored five goals in eight home Premier League appearances against Liverpool for Manchester United – his most home goals against any side in the competition. Indeed, excluding penalties, the only players with more home Premier League goals against Liverpool are Sergio Agüero (7), Thierry Henry (6), and Jamie Vardy (6).

Odds correct at 1350 GMT on (17/2/24)

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?