David Massey provides Saturday's Punting Pointers and he has four recommended bets.
Racing Betting Tips: Saturday December 21
0.5pts e.w Timeforarum in the 12.28 Hereford at 22/1 (1,2,3,4,5 Unibet, Bet365, min 18/1)
1pt win Jungle Boogie in the 1.50 Ascot at 11/4 (General, take no lower)
1pt win The Changing Man in the 3.00 Ascot at 7/2 (General, take no lower)
0.5pts e.w Black Hawk Eagle in the 3.35 Ascot at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4 General, min 16/1)
1.15 Ascot
Galop De Chasse and Scarface look the most likely two to fight it out, we think.
Remarkably Venetia Williams is 8-16 with her runners at Ascot through 2023 and 24, and clearly she does not bring them here for fresh air. In short, that means punters having a tenner on all her runners in that period would be up by £448.10 at Betfair SP and £369.10 at bookmakers’ Starting Price. He should be spot on after a couple of runs this season which he's looked like he needed, and has a solid chance.
Similar comments apply to Scarface, steadily brought along this autumn and winter but looked like he was about ready to strike when second at Newbury last time out (just in front of Galop De Chasse) and the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies is hardly a negative to his chances either.
1.50 Ascot
Whilst we are big fans of Iroko and might well be with him when the Grand National this year comes around, for all he ran a good race at Cheltenham when fifth to Grey Dawning in the Turners, you cannot tell us that's anywhere near as good a run as JUNGLE BOOGIE's in the Gold Cup where he's pulled Rachel Blackmore's arms out for much of the contest, but quite simply didn't stay the trip. In finishing last of the the six runners that completed, beaten 21 lengths, he's still run well but performed much better than that. He’s clearly had his issues over the years to have been so lightly raced, but he is a high-class performer when fit and should make a bold bid to win here.
2.25 Ascot
The bottom line concerning this year's Long Walk Hurdle is that Strong Leader is by far the most likely winner and you can easily argue should be nearer a 5/4 chance than 7/4, as long as the ground isn't a bog by this time. That's the one thing that could stop him, he needs ground that isn't tacky, basically.
Strong Leader improved with racing last year but made the perfect start to the new season when winning the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last month from Monmiral and he looked like he would come on for that run, which would again make him hard to beat. The only concern would be if the rain expected at Ascot was heavier than expected, as I believe that Strong Leader is at his best on good or yielding ground and this good mover could be inconvenienced by a proper slog which this race can become in such conditions.
If - if - it became a slog, then the one that could upset the applecart at a price is Botox Has. The negative with him is an easy one - he can throw the towel in early if he isn't in the mood - but on his day he's useful, winning the Grade 2 Rendlesham at Haydock last February and has two other Grade 2 wins to his name in the last couple of years. If it's a slog, that'll suit him, and he should strip fitter for his first run of the year at Cheltenham at the end of October.
3.00 Ascot
We'd be struggling to put you off likely favourite and last year's winner of this, Victtorino, here. Third in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time out but it should be pointed out that his jumping could have been better, and he was never really in with a winning chance, coming home with a rattle when it was all over. You can argue he's a short enough price given there's likely to be a mistake or two on the way around, and there is an alternative in the shape of THE CHANGING MAN.
You can argue a similar case against him jumping-wise as he's far from foot perfect, but the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies looks a positive one and he could be just the man to make up The Changing Man's mind for him at his fences. He ought to have won the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time out, landing flat-footed at the last, that probably costing him victory, and for all he remains a maiden over fences, he has a lot of ability.
3.35 Ascot
BLACK HAWK EAGLE was a strong fancy for us to win the Morebattle at Kelso back in the spring but blew out badly, and whilst there appeared to be no reason for that at the time, that was the start of Kerry Lee's long drought without a winner until very recently when she broke the sequence at Bangor. Hers are just starting to run a little better now, and to be fair to Black Hawk Eagle, he's run really well on both starts this season. Quotes of 20/1 and bigger look wrong.
2.05 Haydock
Conditions will be testing at Haydock but that won’t be a concern for Famous Bridge who won this race last year and looked as good as ever when 3 lengths second of 7 to Elvis Mail at Kelso on his return eight weeks ago. He has top-weight of 12 stone to carry here, but his mark of 137 is just 2lb higher than when he won 12 months ago and he’s expected to go very close in his bid for back-to-back successes.
12.28 Hereford
Away from the bigger meetings, TIMEFORARUM might be worth a look in this low-grade handicap hurdle at Hereford.
Brought along with handicaps in mind by Brian Eckley, he ran a much better race at Stratford in the summer, finishing a 4l second to Don Rafael, from that has worked out well since with plenty from the race either winning or running well since.
He badly needed his comeback run at Chepstow in October and remarkably the handicapper has given him a 4lb drop for that, which looks pretty generous given the previous Stratford form. James Best takes over in the saddle, which looks a positive, and whilst he wouldn't want it a bog, it never gets desperate at Hereford, and conditions should be fine.
Preview posted 0955 GMT on 21/12/24
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