Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Vinicius Jr to be carded at 16/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Jude Bellingham to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
1pt Kevin De Bruyne to be carded at 5/1 (BetVictor)
0.25pts Vinicius Jr, Bellingham and De Bruyne to be carded at 75/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 42/1
- Vinicius Jr to be carded
- Jude Bellingham to be carded
- Kevin De Bruyne to be carded
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV: TNT Sports 1
Agg. score: Real Madrid 3-2 Manchester City
Home 5/6 | Draw 16/5 | Away 12/5
After Erling Haaland converted his penalty in the 80th minute, it looked like Manchester City would be heading to the Bernabeu 2-1 up.
Pep Guadiola’s side have made a habit of letting advantages slip recently though and the first leg was no exception.
Brahim Diaz equalised four minutes from time for Real Madrid before Jude Bellingham slipped home the winner in stoppage-time.
Advantage Los Blancos.
It sets up another nail-biter in Spain and at the prices available, it would take a brave man to take a punt on the 1x2.
With a goal advantage, the 17/20 about the hosts looks short.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side were held at Osasuna in La Liga on the weekend, albeit playing the majority of the match with 10-men, but are bolstered by defensive reinforcements ahead of this clash.
City won convincingly against Newcastle in the Premier League and will need to bring their A-game here.
Like I say though, the traditional markets might be best avoided as there is value elsewhere.
It looks like the perfect storm for cards; two naughty teams, plenty of cynical players, the highest of stakes and a card happy referee.
What are the best bets?
Referee Istvan Kovacs is the ideal appointment. The referee has averaged 4.8 in the Champions League which jumps up to 5.6 in the knockout stages dishing out at least five in five of seven games.
VINICIUS JUNIOR is the standout price TO BE CARDED.
He has picked up 12 in all competitions this term, three coming in Europe, while across a 77 game career in the Champions League he has been carded 10 times.
JUDE BELLINGHAM is also worth a poke TO BE CARDED at 15/4 with bet365.
He was sent off during the 1-1 draw with Osasuna at the weekend for something he said to the referee and that was his 18th card in a Real Madrid shirt.
Based on Bellingham’s Los Blancos cards per 90 average of 0.26, this price is a point too big without factoring in the referee, occasion and opposition.
Bellingham has four Champions League knock-out cards, all of which have come against English opposition.
With suspensions whipped after this game, he won’t have to worry about missing the next round either, should Los Blancos progress.
The final tout comes from the City camp where KEViN DE BRUYNE appeals TO BE CARDED.
De Bruyne isn’t renowned for his cynical antics but the Belgian picks up almost twice as many cards per 90 on the continent (0.20) as he does domestically (0.11).
Team news
Ancelotti remains without Lucas Vazquez, Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal.
David Alaba and Antonio Rudiger missed the first leg with injuries but were back in training on Monday putting them in contention to start on Wednesday. Only Rudiger is expected to feature from the off though.
Rudiger’s return will push Aurelien Tchouameni into the middle of the park alongside French compatriot Eduardo Camavinga.
As for the visitors, City could welcome back defensive duo Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake. Neither were risked against Newcastle at the weekend but are expected to return to the fold in midweek.
Pep will also be hopeful Jack Grealish can shake off the muscle injury he picked up in the first leg.
After making his debut at the weekend, Nico Gonzalez is expected to anchor the midfield with Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne operating ahead of him.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Camavinga, Tchouameni; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius; Mbappe
Manchester City: Ederson; Nunes, Dias, Ake, Gvardiol; Gonzalez; Savinho, Silva, De Bruyne, Marmoush; Haaland
Match facts
- Real Madrid’s 3-2 win in the first leg against Man City was the 40 th time they’ve won the first leg of a European knockout stage tie away from home – they’ve progressed from 37 of the previous 39, failing only against Odense Boldklub (1994-95 UEFA Cup) and Ajax (2018-19 UEFA Champions League).
- Man City’s 3-2 defeat in the first leg was the fifth time they’ve lost the first leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie, going on to be eliminated on each of the previous four occasions.
- Real Madrid have lost just one of their six UEFA Champions League home games against Manchester City (W3 D2), going down 2-1 in the round of 16 in 2019-20.
- Manchester City have lost nine of their 27 UEFA Champions League meetings with Spanish opponents, almost twice as many defeats than against sides from any other nation (5 vs French and German teams). Indeed, their nine losses vs Spanish teams accounts for 28% of their overall defeats in the competition (9/32).
- Real Madrid have only failed to score in one of their last 78 UEFA Champions League home games (207 goals scored), doing so in a 3-0 loss to CSKA Moscow in December 2018.
- Manchester City have lost each of their last three away games in the UEFA Champions League. Only once previously have they last four in a row in the competition (under Roberto Mancini between 2011 and 2012), while this is already Pep Guardiola’s longest losing streak away from home in the Champions League.
- Manchester City have lost three UEFA Champions League games when scoring the first goal this season – 1-4 against Sporting CP, 2-4 against PSG and 2-3 against Real Madrid. No team has ever lost four games despite going 1-0 up in a single campaign before.
- Carlo Ancelotti and Pep Guardiola will be the first managers to face each other on 10 occasions in the UEFA Champions League, eight of which have come while in charge of their current clubs, Real Madrid and Manchester City. Ancelotti has won four of the nine meetings so far (D3 L2), while he’s never lost at home to the Spaniard (W2 D2).
- Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham has scored more UEFA Champions League goals against Manchester City than he has versus any other opponent (3). It’s also the joint-highest number of goals an English player has scored against an English opponent in the competition (Frank Lampard also 3 vs Liverpool).
- Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has scored 49 goals in 48 UEFA Champions League games, with his brace in the first leg his first ever strikes against Real Madrid. A goal here would see him become the fastest to 50 goals in terms of both appearances and age (24 years 213 days).
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (17/02/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
