Tony McFadden provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Thursday.
Three points of interest
Noble Victory an interesting debutant for in-form Tate
No trainer who has had at least five runners on the Flat in Britain this year has a better strike rate than James Tate who has had four winners from his nine runners at 44.4%.
Tate introduces an interesting newcomer in the five-furlong maiden (12:42) at Southwell on Thursday as Noble Victory's six siblings have all won. His dam, Purple Glow, was placed at listed level and has produced a couple of foals who achieved a Timeform rating in excess of 100, including Main Desire who won a couple of listed races at York.
Noble Victory starts out at a course where Tate has enjoyed plenty of success in recent years. Tate's record at Southwell since the start of 2020 stands at 15 winners from 58 runners at a strike rate of 25.9% - that compares extremely favourably to his overall strike rate of 15.5% in that period. And backing those 58 runners at Southwell would have generated a profit of £31.85 to £1 level stakes.
Among the courses where he has had at least ten runners since the start of 2020, Southwell has been Tate's best track based on strike rate and P&L.
James Doyle to deliver again at Southwell?
James Doyle heads to Southwell to ride Dyrholaey for his employer Wathnan Racing in the six-furlong handicap (13:42) and he has an eye-catching record at the course.
Doyle has been a relatively infrequent visitor to Southwell in recent years - perhaps unsurprisingly given his status as one of the leading riders in Britain - but his record at the course since the start of 2020 stands at nine winners from 23 rides at a strike rate of 39.1% and a profit of £5.67 to £1 level stakes. No active rider who has had at least ten rides at the course in that timeframe has such a good strike rate.
Doyle has a good chance of enhancing his fine course record as Dyrholaey looked a good prospect when winning his first three starts, after which he was purchased by Wathnan Racing. Dyrholaey flopped on his handicap debut at Ascot, losing his unbeaten record with a whimper, but he got back on track after a break when a close-up third at Wolverhampton last month and he could still have a bit more to offer.
Jason Hart a positive booking for eye-catcher Miss Calculation
Stella Barclay has had five winners in January, which equals her best tally for a month, and she has a good chance in the second division of the classified stakes (15:12) at Southwell with recent eye-catcher Miss Calculation.
Miss Calculation earned Timeform's Horse In Focus Flag, marking her out as one likely to be of interest next time, when third on her return at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago. She was beaten only a length and a half but would have finished a bit closer had she not been short of room approaching the final furlong.
She will benefit from stepping back up in trip to seven furlongs here, while it's also interesting that Jason Hart's services have been called upon as he has been aboard for three of her four wins, including her sole success for this yard. Hart has had ten winners from 27 rides this month and his strike rate of 37% is the highest among jockeys who have had at least ten rides in British Flat races since the turn of the year.
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