Timefigure analysis and opinion ahead of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival

Kopeck De Mee 136, are you having a laugh?

The penultimate week before Cheltenham isn’t usually one where much significant happens so far as potential outcomes at the Festival are concerned, for all recent attempts at introducing pegging bonuses to Cheltenham success have attempted to address that void somewhat.

What good action there is on the racecourse is usually more pertinent to events at Aintree or elsewhere later this spring, as it was this year, but at least the early part of the week did give us some racecourse gallops to get our teeth into as well as the unveiling of the Cheltenham handicap weights on top of a couple of almost apologetic stable tours that seemed more pointed towards Aintree than Cheltenham.

No racecourse gallop worth its salt goes by without its poster boys Constitution Hill and Nicky Henderson being at the forefront of it all and both turned up at Kempton last Tuesday as the former Champion Hurdler attempted to condemn the memories of his previous public gallop when outworked by Sir Gino to the dustbin.

And so he did, at least according to his trainer who described his work as ‘frightening’ with his regular rider Nico de Boinville at pains too to communicate how happy he was. Give me as much sectional and stride data as you want but interpreting racecourse gallops contested at half speed against two stablemates who not only looked to have the handbrake on but who were of such inferior quality that Constitution Hill would be giving them in the region of 50lb in a handicap isn’t something I’d want to put much faith in, so exactly where Constitution Hill is in Champion Hurdle preparedness compared to two years ago is something that’s almost complete guesswork to anyone outside the stable.

The news that Brighterdaysahead will contest the Champion and not the Mares’ will at least provide him with a new challenge and might at least give him something to think about if she really is as talented as her last wide-margin win in heavy ground looked. Brighterdaysahead’s defeat in the Mares’ novice last year at the hands of Golden Ace (who despite winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton recently is still viewed rightly or wrongly as one of the outsiders in the Champion) seems to me to be the most pertinent reminder that Brighterdaysahead still has some way to go before claiming the hurdling crown even if Constitution Hill is, as seems likely, isn’t quite the force he was three years ago when he ran a 178 timefigure over course and distance.

Of more interest than his racecourse gallop, to me at least, was the unveiling of the Cheltenham handicap weights, not least the mark given to Kopeck De Mee who had already had plenty of racecourse experience before his acquisition by J P McManus having run five times over jumps in France as well as twice on the Flat in which discipline he beat subsequent Listed winner Bel Et Bien when successful at Senonnes.

At the weights launch, the BHA handicapper responsible for his mark, Micheal Harris, argued, disingenuously it seemed to me, that his hands were tied, and he was only able to transfer the mark awarded him by the French authorities after his latest win in a Listed contest at Auteuil.

That feeble defence has more holes in it than a matured Emmental. After all, the BHA handicappers routinely take little or no notice of the handicap marks the official Irish handicappers have awarded Irish-trained horses entered in Britain, often burdening them with an extra 10lb, so why should they be far less deferential to the marks the French handicapper has given them, not least when Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill wrote in a BHA blog after the furore following the opening handicap mark given to his stablemate Ocastle Des Mottes a year earlier that “the team has discretionary powers to stray from the standard conversion (2lb for every 1 kilogram allotted by the French handicapper) in certain situations when appropriate,” which include seeing if its form “can be tied in with other ex-French trained horses who have been exported to Great Britain or Ireland and whose form may have settled at a certain level.”

From this, I can only presume that Harris is unaware that on his latest start Kopeck De Mee accounted for a horse called Karam Le Rouge, who had won his two previous races and in the second of them had finished a length ahead of Kitzbuhel who is now rated 145 currently by Timeform and 153 officially in Ireland after winning since his transfer from France at Punchestown and Gowran Park while over five lengths back in third in his Listed win was Zephyr De Beaumont who in three races since has since won a listed race and finished second in a Grade 1 earning himself a French official rating of 145.

Since the beginning of 2020, only 10 per cent of the 330-odd horses to have made their debut over hurdles in Britain after being switched from France were successful, an already low success rate that that drops alarmingly if only those who made their first start in a handicap after the switch are included, but the much smaller number transferred to Irish stables, which obviously include a host of expensively-sourced Rich Ricci imports have fared a lot better, scoring over 25 per cent of the time on their Irish debuts for all the very small number that started their new life in Ireland in handicaps surprisingly cut little ice.

Both the horses Mullins has elected to run in handicaps straight off over here since the start of 2020, Gaelic Warrior and Ocastle Des Mottes, have suffered contrasting fates; neither won but Gaelic Warrior went on to prove himself top class as the betting before his British debut in the Fred Winter suggested he would be whereas Ocastle Des Mottes (who was acquired after winning a couple of handicaps and not a conditions race) is still looking for his first win in Ireland. We’ll get to see next week but on balance I’d say Kopeck De Mee is probably extremely well handicapped and could easily start the shortest-priced favourite (which currently stands at 9/4) for the Martin Pipe this century.

Dawning back on track

At first glance, Newbury might have seemed the principal domestic jumps fixture last weekend but the card at the Berkshire track fell short of its useful standards for all it featured a remarkable first-to-last surge from the longtime tailed-off Booster Bob in the feature Greatwood Handicap Chase and what graded action there was took place at Kelso, Doncaster and, in Ireland, Navan.

At Kelso, most of the interest on a bet365-sponsored card focussed on the Listed Premier Chase which attracted just four runners but included two, Grey Dawning and Iroko, whose sights are both set on Aintree if on different targets. With 10lb between them beforehand on official ratings but just 6lb on Timeform ratings, the likely outcome from that perspective promised not to be a foregone conclusion with Iroko in receipt of weight but despite there being just two and a half lengths between the pair at the line it struck me as something of a non-contest from some way out with the eased Grey Dawning looking every inch Britain’s best staying chaser as I suspect he is (timefigure here 157, 4lb below his best) and Iroko acquitting himself well enough (152 timefigure, 6lb better than his previous best) without suggesting to me that his future lies outside handicaps.

Cracking Rhapsody won the Morebattle Hurdle for the second year running on a day when there was an unusually long gap between the second last hurdle and the last but the top performance (135) on the clock over the smaller obstacles was posted by Jet To Vegas in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle.

Won by such decent sorts as Nemean Lion, Nells Son and My Drogo in recent years, Jet To Vegas was the first winner in the race for his stable since winning it in consecutive years in 2011 and 2012 with Bold Sir Bryan and Tap Night. Both that pair went on to contest graded races at the Grand National meeting but neither managed to hit the frame and on the face of things Jet To Vegas might struggle too since he registered a lower winning performance than either of those two. His future like many from the yard will ultimately be over fences and not hurdles.

Doncaster’s feature race, the Virgin Bet Grimthorpe, went to the ‘veteran’ Moroder for the second time in three years in a timefigure (130) just 1lb lower than he had posted in the same event two years previously, but the sole listed event on the card, the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, was a steadily-run affair that went the way, albeit unimpressively, to one of the two clear form picks in the race, Irish challenger World Of Fortunes who had found open company too hot at the Dublin Racing Festival last time behind Final Demand.

Navan’s two graded events over fences, the first of which was over two miles and the second was over an extended two and a half, went the way of Champ Kiely and Senecia respectively. The former contest, run in honour of Arkle’s stable-companion and box neighbour Flyingbolt, was something of a penalty kick for the Fairyhouse bound Champ Kiely and he wasn’t hard pressed to see off Jeannot Lapin by eight lengths in a 121 timefigure.

Willie Mullins was expected to double up with El Fabiolo in the Boylesports Webster Cup Chase but the former Arkle winner has found things going awry since last season’s Dublin Festival win and together with Fil D’Or, Gentleman De Mee and Grangeclare West (surely flattered by his Irish Gold Cup second despite the much shorter trip here) looked a shadow of his former self struggling home behind a 200/1-shot who dictated from the front and ended up posting a 138 timefigure.

Jumps cards kicking off at 2.25pm at the end of February as they did at Ffos Las last week is a sure sign the Flat season proper is just around the corner and Godolphin have not been slow to flex their 2000 Guineas muscles with more experience given last week to two of their leading candidates for that race, dazzling Kempton January winner Opera Ballo and Acomb third Ruling Court.

Opera Ballo continued in the footsteps trodden by Notable Speech, having landed the same race the 2024 2000 winner had also won on his debut twelve months earlier, winning the ‘European Road To The Kentucky Derby’ conditions stakes by four lengths in a 105 timefigure that came with a 4lb upgrade from three furlongs out but which could have been higher using the detailed Course Track data closer to the finish – 9lb by my reckoning – taking his overall timerating to 114 which is higher than Notable Speech had achieved at the same point last year before advancing his claims significantly at Kempton again in his final race before the 2000.

Ruling Court, who wasn’t seen after finishing third to The Lion In Winter in the Acomb, advanced his 2000 claims by winning the UAE version easily by almost six lengths. Timeform don’t return either timefigures or sectional upgrades publicly for racing in Dubai but both are kept internally and a provisional 99 timefigure can be upgraded to 111 using his time from two furlongs out by my calculations using the new sectional upgrade formula (which isn’t dissimilar to the one currently in use over jumps) currently being trialled internally at Timeform. Given the manner in which he cut down the opposition under an extremely confident ride before drawing clear, it’s hard to think he won’t end up far off top class.

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