Grand National tips: Graham Cunningham big-race preview and Aintree talking points

Anything is possible as National quest begins again

There’s nothing new about ageing stars changing things up to remain relevant with a demanding audience and Elton John fans will testify that some of the most venerable A-Listers can look and sound like they used to (well almost) after having work done.

But maintaining the old allure is tricky as the years pass by and the Grand National’s nips and tucks have kept it firmly in the public eye while leaving a fair chunk of its fanbase pining for the old hits of yesteryear.

A concerted drive to make the race much safer has paid dividends overall and, although it’s still unusual to see half the field negotiate all 30 fences, it’s now crystal clear that the essence of the race has changed forever.

The number of fallers is way down since Aintree’s fearsome old fences were softened and it’s startling to think the once-mighty Becher’s Brook hasn’t seen a horse depart in the National since 2018; the number of horses pulled up once their chance has gone has rocketed; Britain can barely get a horse in the frame due to Irish dominance; and punters have found it harder to identify the winner than during any ten-year period since WWII.

Neptune Collonges got the ‘didn’t see that coming’ decade under way at 33-1 in 2012, followed by wins for Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re and Many Clouds at 66s, 25s and 25s.

One For Arthur, Tiger Roll (twice) and Minella Times were much more popular but they were sandwiched between wins for a 33-1 shot breaking his chasing duck at the 14th attempt (Rule The World) and a 50-1 boilover for seven-year-old novice Noble Yeats last year which came as a shock to practically all bar Sporting Life soothsayer Matt Brocklebank.

The last decade has also seen a rake of longshots hit the frame, with Balko Des Flos (100-1) and Magic Of Light (66-1) finishing second, Vics Canvas (100-1), Bless The Wings and Monbeg Dude (40-1) third and Oscar Time (66-1) and Alvarado and Santini (33-1) fourth.

Put simply, the days when most Nationals could be whittled down to a manageable short list with the requisite blend of class, stamina and sound jumping belong to a bygone era when Mick Fitz bantered with Des Lynam before calling his autobiography ‘Better Than Sex.’

Nailing the winner can be a rough quest nowadays but, amid turbulent times and threats from protest groups, the new era National can still belt out ‘I’m Still Standing.’ And, unlike Sir Elton, this surgically enhanced old trouper isn’t ready for a farewell tour just yet.

What’s the best way to use National stats and trends?

It’s hard to imagine why anyone would lean on data from the days when Aintree’s fences punished even minor errors and the latest ten-year sample sends mixed messages.

Many Clouds and Tiger Roll kyboshed the idea that carrying more than 11st was a major negative; Auroras Encore and Pineau De Re struck for the old guard as eleven-year-olds, while Noble Yeats became the first seven-year-old in over eighty years to prevail last year.

Add in the fact that several winners – notably Pineau De Re and Rule The World – survived blunders that would have seen them on the deck in the old days and it’s tempting to take a more relaxed approach to punting on the modern National.

It’s nothing like the test or spectacle it once was but it’s still hugely competitive with 40 runners (hopefully) all in the handicap. The answers to some of these questions will be wide of the mark – or possibly dead wrong - but let’s hope a few of them help solve the puzzle.

And what are the answers to this year’s National puzzle?

Let’s just say it might be time to put on the punting L Plates.

LONGHOUSE POET

Yes, he’s high on the short list for the second year running partly because I couldn’t bear to see him win the National after going for the crown jewels with him twelve months ago. And no, I can’t put hand on heart and say I’m sure this LP will stay in the groove long enough to get every inch of the extended four and a quarter miles.

But there’s no question that Longhouse Poet ran much better than the bare result of his 34L sixth suggests in last year’s National, jumping boldly on the inner and tanking along on the pace until faltering on the run to the last.

I don’t read too much into his mixed efforts over fences and hurdles since - including a workmanlike chase win at Down Royal last month - but I read plenty into the fact that Longhouse Poet is 19lb and 8lb better off with last year’s first two. Add in the potential for appreciable improvement if he channels his energy more evenly and the case for going in again (perhaps just for the crown rather than the crown and the jewels) is solid enough.

LIFETIME AMBITION

A highly appropriate name for a live longshot from a yard with an interesting National record. Jessie Harrington has only run two horses in the National and they both relished the task, Magic of Light giving Tiger Roll all the trouble he could handle when second at 66-1 in 2019 and 80-1 shot Jett leading his rivals a merry dance with his aggressive front running in the 2021 renewal before tiring in the straight.

This gelding does a very fair impression of Magic of Light in the hungry way he goes about his business and it’s well worth revisiting the video of the Troytown Chase at Navan last November, where he jumped beautifully for the most part and bounded clear swinging for home only to be worn down by The Big Dog after getting the final fence wrong.

Harrington has won most of jump racing’s crown jewels but says it’s a Lifetime Ambition to snag this one. The lifetime ambition for National value seekers is to find a 33-1 shot who will go off at 20-1 or shorter and run as well or even better than the favourites. There’s still some 33s around about this lad but he’ll be 20 or shorter come the day - and he’s capable of running like a leading player if I’ve read the signals right.

LE MILOS

Dubbing any horse the best of British in the National these days is a bit like saying Sporty was the best singer in the Spice Girls. Still, the chirpy scouser (Whiston if we’re splitting hairs) had a solid solo career when she morphed into Mel C and Le Milos has scaled new heights since joining Dan Skelton, bolting up at Bangor before showing real tenacity to land a Coral Gold Cup at Newbury that has worked out strongly thanks to the subsequent exploits of Remastered, Corach Rambler and Annsam.

Le Milos didn’t quite repeat his Newbury form when worn down late by Empire Steel in Kelso’s Premier Chase but he gave the firm impression that he’s still on the up, jumping and travelling with all his usual zip but paying the price for the fact that he was asked to put the race to bed a fair bit earlier than ideal after a break of more than three months.

Skelton has harvested a host of major handicaps this season – including the Becher Chase over the National fences with Ashtown Lad – and Timeform sum Le Milos’s chances up neatly by saying that “his jumping and cruising speed are sure to hold him in good stead at Aintree.” Just 6lb higher than for his Newbury win, he could be almost as well handicapped as Corach Rambler – and at 16-1 across the board he’s almost three times the price.

Is Corach Rambler the right favourite?

Being ahead of the handicapper is no guarantee of Aintree success – ask those who made Cloth Cap 11-2 fav in 2021 – but Corach Rambler is 10lb well in on BHA figures after landing Cheltenham’s Ultima Chase for the second year running and the powerful late surge he can produce sets him apart from the vast majority of staying handicappers.

So what’s the catch?

Maybe there isn’t one. Yes, being dropped out in rear comes with risk in and the Rambler’s head carriage – likened by one Twitter wag to someone trying to avoid getting their hair wet while paddling in the deep end – will be tested if he’s in the mix on racing’s longest run-in. But this unexposed horse is on a roll and well treated. Possibly very well treated.

Is Noble Yeats another Tiger Roll?

The Tiger defied a 9lb hike for his second win in 2019, whereas Noble Yeats is 19lb higher for his return. Some felt his Gold Cup fourth was a perfect National trial but he merely plugged on after being blown away as the genuine G1 stars asserted. It’s always great to have last year’s winner back but Tiger Roll was the first back-to-back winner since Red Rum in 1974. A mark of 166 looks tough and if Noble Yeats defies the huge hike then I won’t be winning.

Fourth time lucky for Any Second Now?

Once again, it’s a pure question of handicapping. Thwarted by Covid in 2020 then an unlucky third in 2021 and a brave second last year, Ted Walsh’s warhorse looks as good as ever after his G2 win at Navan. The problem is, he needs to be better than ever aged eleven to go 3-2-1. The Aintree force is strong with this one. But the weight factor – a worrying 8lb higher than last year – could prove stronger still.

Second time lucky for Delta Work?

Only faltered from the last twelve months ago and, given that he has healthy weight pulls with the pair who beat him and lines up fresh from a Cheltenham cross country defeat of stablemate Galvin, the Michael O’Leary-owned gelding is bound to be popular. That said, Delta Work was beaten 22 lengths last year. Is he the same or better this time around? Same looks favourite – and he’s only a pound lower than last year.

And what chance of the ultimate Hollywood farewell for Davy?

Sam Waley-Cohen enjoyed the dream farewell last year and D N Russell has the chance to do likewise aboard a horse who was good enough to be sent off second favourite for last year’s Gold Cup. Galvin is a sound jumper who stays well and Gordon Elliott seems confident he will be sharper for his good second at Cheltenham. Whether he can improve enough to defy a rating of 166 is another matter but it would be tremendous to see Davy sign off in style – and if he did so by thwarting the dreadful O’Leary then so much the better.

Time for another Willie winner?

It’s eighteen years since Hedgehunter sprinted clear and there are pros and cons for Willie’s 2023 possibles. Capodanno has only run once since his Punchestown G1 win and, rightly or wrongly, the fact that he’s by Manduro nags away at me. Carefully Selected possibly had his big day in the Thyestes, while Gaillard Du Mesnil and the quirky Mr Incredible are in form after bold Festival efforts but are priced accordingly at 14-1 or thereabouts.

Has Henry got another live one?

Finishing placed in Leopardstown’s Paddy Power Chase worked as a National springboard for Minella Times and Ain’t That A Shame impressed over Christmas, barrelling through to challenge only to hang badly on the run-in. A routine beginners chase win at Gowran didn’t tell us much new but this powerful gelding, who’s nine but has only seven chases behind him, could make a bold sight if Rachael plots the inside line to prevent any waywardness. You can never be sure if any horse will take to Aintree but legend has it that ‘Ain’t That A Shame’ was the first song John Lennon learned to play. Add in the fact that Paul McCartney has covered the Fats Domino classic twice and the Liverpool connection is undeniable!

How will the race take shape?

There is always an element of chaos to any National, with some horses getting fired up by the challenge and the more relaxed stayers taking much longer to make their way into the race. Don’t expect to see Corach Rambler or last year’s principals Noble Yeats, Any Second Now and Delta Work in the thick of the action for the first two miles or so but the pace tends to slacken approaching halfway and that gives those held up their chance to make ground.

Coko Beach gave it a real go for a long way on the pointy last year and can be expected to do so again but he’ll have plenty of company as Lifetime Ambition looks just the sort to attack Aintree with gusto, while The Big Dog, Velvet Elvis Longhouse Poet and Ain’t That A Shame won’t be too far off the pace, either.

Galvin and the Mullins team are all likely to plot their way through from midfield if all goes well through the first three miles but the last half mile of the most exciting nine minutes in sport is what counts. History suggests there will be nine or ten horses still in with a chance swinging for home. That group will be whittled down to three or four as they run to the last – and from that point on I’m hoping it will be an L of a finish.

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