Andrew Asquith is in the Value Bet hotseat this week and has two bets on the first day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket.
Value Bet: Tuesday April 15
1pt win Vantheman in the 1.50 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Green Storm in the 2.25 Newmarket at 7/1 (Betvictor, Ladbrokes)
And just like that, the Craven meeting is upon us. I often find this fixture tricky from a punting perspective, as it is made up by plenty of horses making their seasonal reappearance, and it is hard to gauge the improvement some horses will make from two to three.
The ground is currently good to firm at Newmarket, though there is rain forecast in the morning. It may change the description slightly, but it should still be on the fast side, and I’m of the opinion that it pays to race handy on the Rowley Mile under such conditions, as it is often hard to make ground up despite the slightly uphill finish.
The stalls are in the centre but there can often be a track bias, also, so it will be interesting to see how it pans out in the first few races. The opening Weatherbys With Venatour Racing Handicap looks an open, useful sprint to start proceedings and Dark Thirty is bidding for back-to-back wins in the race.
He warmed up perfectly for his repeat bid when winning at Doncaster on his return last month, having a few of these in behind on that occasion, and a subsequent 3lb rise in the weights still leaves him on a 4lb lower mark than when successful in this 12 months ago.
Dark Thirty didn’t really build on his success last year, though, and it could be that fresh is the best time to catch him, so I’m happy to pass him over towards the head of the market.
Physique was a big eyecatcher in that same Doncaster race, but the way he was ridden on that occasion isn’t sure to suit at this track. Probe finished further back that day and has a positive record at this track, finishing runner-up in this race two years ago before winning a course and distance handicap on his next start. He was on the wrong side of the track with Physique when behind Dark Thirty at Doncaster and he may take another step forward given he missed all of last year.
The one who makes appeal to me at the prices is the Kevin Ryan-trained VANTHEMAN, who developed into a useful sprinter last season. He raced solely at five furlongs last year, but he has winning form over this trip as a juvenile, and he’s the type to develop further as a four-year-old – he’s a strong, well-made sort.
He made a winning reappearance on handicap debut last year, form which worked out quite well, and he also won a handicap at Pontefract in July having shaped encouragingly in some hot three-year-old handicaps prior.
Softer ground may not have suited ideally on his final start at York, but he didn’t at all run badly in what was a strong race. Vantheman is a speedy sort, who can race prominently, and I like his draw in stall 12, while he clearly goes well fresh, too. He returns on a workable mark, the step up to six furlongs shouldn’t be a problem, and he could be hard to peg back if getting into a nice rhythm on the front end.
There are several interesting types in the bet365 Fielden Stakes, but GREEN STORM brings some smart form to the table, and he looks a little overpriced in the market.
It took him four attempts to open his account last season, but he shaped well in races which have worked out well before totally outclassing his opposition when bolting up over a similar trip to this at Yarmouth in September.
He ran in the Zetland Stakes over a mile and a quarter at this course on his next start and I like that form as I have quite a high opinion of the winner Starzintheireyes. Green Storm backed up that effort when runner-up in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start as a juvenile and, while it may not have been the strongest renewal of that event (just three runners), he again displayed a likeable and willing attitude.
Green Storm has the physique – a tall colt with plenty of scope – to develop into an even better three-year-old and I think he might just get the run of this. He’s an uncomplicated type who will almost certainly be ridden positively stepping back in trip and he sets a high bar for some of the more unexposed types to aim at – he’s at least 7lb clear of his rivals on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings. The booking of Tom Marquand, who doesn’t ride for Charlie Johnston too often, also catches the eye.
- Preview posed at 1600 BST on 14/04/2025
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