It's time for the Divisional Round in the NFL and with a 6/1 winner last week, Matt Temple-Marsh is searching for more value.
NFL betting tips: Divisional Round
1pt Austin Hooper anytime in Kansas City Chiefs v Cleveland Browns at 13/5
1pt Antonio Brown anytime in New Orleans Saints v Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 9/4
1pt Davante Adams & Cam Akers to score anytime in Green Bay Packers v Los Angeles Rams at 9/4
1pt JK Dobbins anytime in Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens at 6/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sure, Alvin Kamara looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 1/2 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.
In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
Kansas City Chiefs v Cleveland Browns
- When: Sunday at 20:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Austin Hooper anytime at 13/5
I talked about Austin Hooper last week at the same price, and he came through with a touchdown. I love his chances again this week, against the Kansas City Chiefs. Hooper was unlucky to not have a brace last time out, as he caught all four of his red zone targets.
Baker has found his touchdown weapon, with Hooper seeing 80% of the Browns’ total red zone targets against the Steelers. The Chiefs may worry you, but they have the seventh worst defence in the league to tight ends, conceding nine touchdowns to the position.
We know Mahomes will likely run up the score, meaning the Browns will have to throw the ball and chase the lead. Hooper is Baker’s favourite red zone target, and we can expect to find him in the end zone once more.
New Orleans Saints v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: Sunday at 23:40 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Antonio Brown anytime at 9/4
With every passing week, Antonio Brown grows more comfortable in this Tampa Bay offence. He has scored five touchdowns on the season, with all of them coming in his last four games.
Those games have seen 31 passes come his way, as he has made 22 catches for 315 yards. Marshon Lattimore is going to lock up Mike Evans, leaving some favourable match-ups for AB.
This Saints secondary can be beaten - Javon Wims would have scored a 40-yard touchdown if it wasn’t for an unbelievable drop last week. AB is Brady’s deep weapon, expect him to go for six.
Green Bay Packers v Los Angeles Rams
- When: Saturday at 21:35 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Davante Adams & Cam Akers to score anytime at 9/4
Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams has been the best connection in the NFL this season. Adams has 18 touchdowns on the season, and he missed two games through injury. He faces his toughest task of the season in Jalen Ramsey, but he’s more than up to the task.
Ramsey primarily covered DK Metcalf last week, shadowing him on 69% of his routes – limiting the WR to three catches for 33 yards. What did Metcalf do when he wasn’t covered by Ramsey? Score two touchdowns. Ramsey won’t cover Adams all game, and we can expect Rodgers’ favourite target to find the end zone.
Cam Akers is a volume machine. Last week he carried the ball 28 times for 131 yards and a touchdown. He saw three red zone carries, and also caught two passed for 45 yards. In the past five weeks Akers has 114 rushes – that’s only 11 less than Derrick Henry!
Goff is still dealing with his thumb injury, and the Rams will lean heavily into the ground game. The Packers have conceded a rushing touchdown in each of their last four games, and have allowed 19 total TDs to running backs on the season. Akers will get the volume, and represents great value to find the end zone.
Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens
- When: Sunday at 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: JK Dobbins anytime at 6/5
Dobbins has scored a touchdown in seven straight games. He’s the Ravens’ goal line back, and he’s going to get the volume. The Bills just conceded 78 rushing yards and a touchdown to Jonathan Taylor, and they now face the best rushing offence in the league.
On the season Buffalo has allowed 16 total touchdowns to running backs – expect that number to increase with Dobbins finding the end zone. Even at 6/5 I believe this to be value, but if you’re after a larger price, the brace @ 8/1 shows promise.
I also like Dobbins to rush for under 58.5 yards @ 5/6 (to pair with the touchdown), as he serves as the goal-line/short yardage back.
Odds correct at 1830 GMT (15/01/21)
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