Free golf betting tips: Ben Coley previews the Mayakoba Classic

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 30/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Corey Conners at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello at 175/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Everyone in every line of work needs a break, and in golf that's true whether you play it, whether you're a caddie, a pundit, a beat reporter, a coach, or a writer. The planned ones don't come along often, but with no Presidents Cup and no Hero World Challenge, all of those above whose focus is the PGA Tour are about to get theirs.

You can see how focus might slip, even for elite professionals who are playing for millions of dollars, as the year draws to a close - especially after three majors in four bizarre months. I certainly believe it to be possible, and it's why I'm just about happy enough to oppose Justin Thomas at the Mayakoba Classic, the final event of the year.

When last we saw him, Thomas was producing his best Masters performance to date, and yet it's one which will have frustrated him. He'll know that he had an excellent chance to at least be the one asking questions of Dustin Johnson, and he let it slip on the back-nine in round three. That it came after he'd lost by a shot in the Zozo and stuttered from the front in the CJ Cup leads me to believe Thomas may well have gone home after Augusta, put the clubs away, and tried to think about anything other than golf for a while.

That may have had a restorative effect, and I'm not one to pick holes in one of the most prolific players in the sport. Still, at 13/2 we kind of have to, and I just can't convince myself that he'll have been preparing for this in a meaningful, motivated way. He's a born competitor and will give it everything once that first tee peg goes in the ground, but that doesn't mean he'll be at his best, and I have enough doubts to head elsewhere.

Key to El Camaleon has typically been experience. Champions here are more often in their forties than their twenties, and the requirements around a penal but gettable par 71 start from the tee. You simply have to stay out of trouble to have any chance to score, but with conditions generally soft, anyone doing so will have their share of opportunities.

Rewind to last year and Brendon Todd's victory, which came on a Monday, looks like a very straightforward reference point - especially with more storms forecast. Like all bar one winner since the event moved to its late-year slot, Todd was in great form - in fact he'd won the previous week. Having restored his game and returned from oblivion, he was back hitting fairways as reliably as anyone. And, once on the greens, he has few peers.

Former champion Harris English made him work hard, as did Vaughn Taylor, and here's another pair who are deadly with putter in hand. You could say the same about Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Brian Gay, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell, Johnson Wagner... the roll-of-honour is packed with tidy operators (Kizzire aside) who lean on their putters (Kizzire included).

It's these players and those in the same category who also point towards other clues, at events like the Heritage, Puerto Rico, Corales Puntacana, Bermuda, the Sony Open, whatever they call it at Colonial now, and Southwind before it became a WGC. So often, the same cabal of old-fashioned players will crop up here and there, as McDowell did when placing at a big price in the Sony in January, and Gay did so spectacularly in Bermuda last month.

On the other hand, Thomas himself serves as a warning. There is an element of self-fulfilling prophecy about it all, because many of the events listed don't attract the best players in the sport. Were Thomas and company to rock up in Puerto Rico every year, one of them would win most of the time, and so on. Thomas himself blasted a brilliant 59 at the Sony Open and won going away, and he's won the CIMB Classic - on similar greens to these - twice. Southwind? Yep, he's won there too. I really hope he's been playing computer games.

All of the above helps shape my selections and this does look an excellent opportunity for DANIEL BERGER to cap a fine year with his fourth PGA Tour win.

Berger's name crops up at many of the above tournaments, most notably Southwind and Colonial, the two courses at which he's won his three titles so far. Also third at the Heritage, second in Puerto Rico and at the Honda, second back at Southwind earlier this summer, he's plainly at his best on what you might call shorter, technical courses, where his killer iron play and, yes, the putter, can work their magic.

Berger was exceptional throughout the bag last season and a low-scoring test on a tight-ish course like this one should be ideal. He hinted as much on his sole previous outing, way back in 2014, when as a rookie PGA Tour member he held the first-round lead and also signed off positively on an educational visit.

Back then he alluded to how much he enjoys playing in South America, because in many ways it reminds him of his Florida home, and he's since underlined the point with two good efforts in the WGC-Mexico Championship. At the top of his game now and surely having felt hard done by to miss the Masters, given that he's ranked 13th in the world, I expect him to come out firing and contend once more.

Berger has to be preferred to English and Russell Henley, who are ideal types but just look short enough. The latter is set to go off the same price as when never really a factor in the RSM Classic, in his home state and where he has an excellent record. Now, we've replaced Webb Simpson with Thomas and thrown in an in-form Brooks Koepka, all of which means he appears plenty short enough.

Although arriving in obviously good form has been undeniably important, things are a little different this year and plenty of these have been absent since the Masters or, as in Berger's case, before then. I wouldn't worry about the break on his part, though - this is the player who won the first event out of lockdown back in June.

The unique calendar does make it slightly more difficult to measure current form, especially as there was no event last week, but three who played well in the Masters in November make plenty of appeal at a suitable course.

First up is perhaps the riskiest of them, RICKIE FOWLER, who hasn't been at his best this year as he works on some pretty significant swing changes.

That said it's a year now since he started working with John Tillery and he's started to show signs of life ever since the US Open, with one bad round or even one bad hole undermining plenty of good work. It was a mix of both at the Masters where, on Thursday, he was bogey-free and three-under standing on the 12th tee as darkness began to fall, only to make a triple-bogey.

Fowler said afterwards that he made a mistake and shouldn't have played, and he does struggle with his eyesight at times. To his credit though he made a couple of birdies coming in the following morning and played nicely for three of the four rounds, a Saturday 75 keeping him just outside the top 20.

We'll see if he can build on it, but the circumstances could hardly be better if we're looking for a course he likes and real incentive. Fowler is 49th in the world, a fact we'll hear repeated during the broadcast I expect, and will fall to 50th at the end of the year as things stand. It's not exaggerating things at all to say this week determines whether he begins 2021 with a Masters invite and you can be certain he'll know that.

El Camaleon, meanwhile, has proven ideal for him. Fowler finished second to Kizzire in 2017, an event he will feel he ought to have won, and was 16th on his sole subsequent visit. Clearly, he enjoys coming down here with his wife and they again make it a family trip this time having skipped last year's renewal to enjoy a honeymoon.

"I like it, it's a fun golf course to play," he said in 2018. "You have to drive the ball straight unless you're going to be in the trees or in the hazard. Mayakoba's just a great place to come spend a week and hang out. It's fun they have the tournament here and we've definitely enjoyed it the last two years."

Of course, Fowler has been at risk of dropping out of the game's elite for a while and hasn't yet been able to stop the slide. However, Sergio Garcia did it earlier this season and there's some kind of precedent where the man himself is concerned, as in 2013 he dropped to 43rd in the world with two starts left and finished second and eighth to earn those precious invites. He did fall outside the top 50 briefly in January the following year, but by then business had been taken care of.

Most of all though I've seen enough signs from him of late and he really does thrive at this course. Given that his best golf entitles him to second-favouritism, third at worst, 30/1 looks worth the risks especially as he's still been driving the ball straight. Hopefully he comes alive on these greens once more.

MARC LEISHMAN has no such rankings concerns thanks to his win at the Farmers at the start of 2020, but it's been a miserable summer for the Australian and he'll be eager to end the year on a high - something he's proven adept at in the past.

Most examples come from Australia, where he tends to sign off in the PGA, but in 2015 he won the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa and he's also won in Malaysia, on similar greens to these at the CIMB Classic, towards the end of the campaign.

Crucially, he was 13th at the Masters last time, showing much-improved ball-striking stats, and he said there that things were on the up, telling reporters: "I haven't been playing my best golf recently, but I feel like this week has been a turnaround. I feel like I'm striking the ball as well as I have for a long time."

If Leishman can kick on from that he'll look a big price at 50/1, and his last visit here, in 2016, offers promise. Despite a slow start, he pressed on to finish a perfectly decent 24th, and that was powered by ranking seventh in greens hit.

Perhaps Augusta will prove to be a false dawn, but this type of test is right up his street and Leishman can demonstrate his class.

Course form shouldn't be underestimated here but such is the nature of El Camaleon that there's a feast-or-famine feel to much of it. Perez and Todd are recent winners who had done nothing previously, and Kevin Streelman's return of two top-fives and two missed cuts from his last six starts is telling.

Ultimately if a player looks like they should take to El Camaleon but hasn't yet justified that belief, it can pay to give them plenty of chances and COREY CONNERS looks one such example.

The Canadian is a quality tee-to-green operator with form at the Sony Open, Colonial, the Heritage and several other courses which point in this direction, and his victory at the Texas Open is interesting too. Like El Camaleon, TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course is designed by Greg Norman and ties between the two are pretty strong. Charley Hoffman demonstrates them best, but McDowell, Todd, Kuchar and Perez have all placed there, and Kizzire hasn't yet visited. Perhaps he should.

Go back further and surprise Mexico champion Jon Huh went on to finish second at TPC San Antonio so the fact Conners won so brilliantly there last April perhaps suggests he can make his mark here at the third time of asking.

Certainly, he's playing well enough, staying on after a slow start to take 10th at the Masters, and then leading the field from tee-to-green on his way to 10th again at the RSM. This sequence didn't come out of the blue, either, as he's been 17th in the Sanderson Farms and eighth in a high-class Zozo since the new season began.

Just as he did in 2019, Conners is ending the year strongly and he too has a top-50 ranking to play for - especially significant as he's yet to crack it. Given that he was 271st in the world when he played here two years ago and 619th in 2017, his course form requires context and I'm of the belief he can leave it behind - especially as he's putting a little better.

Joel Dahmen has really taken to this place and is respected and there are a clutch of players at around the same price who should go well, including Harold Varner and Keegan Bradley if their putters behave. Doug Ghim and Sepp Straka are others at slightly bigger odds who have the right type of game for this but experience really is beneficial here and I'll finish the year with a couple of darts, from which Kiradech Aphibarnrat is the late omission having been recovering from Covid-19.

First, RAFA CABRERA BELLO has done just enough to convince me he's getting back towards where he ought to be and, back in Mexico, is capable of showing up well on his course debut.

The Spaniard has always played well in the WGC-Mexico Championship and while Chapultepec is a very different course, he should nevertheless feel right at home here - particularly if he can get the surfboard out.

Twice 10th in the CIMB Classic and having been third and fourth at the same course on the European Tour, these grainy greens are no excuse and he's just been a bit better lately, ever since he sat third at the halfway stage of the US Open before unsurprisingly going backwards over the weekend.

While keen not to go overboard with anyone who made the cut at the Masters - it's a very easy cut to make - Cabrera Bello fought hard for it and then went on to the RSM Classic, where he ranked sixth in fairways and ninth in greens for a combined third in accuracy. That's the requirement here and sponsors OHL may have someone to cheer on over the final couple of rounds.

Finally, I can't leave out ANDREW PUTNAM having had an eye on him since the Bermuda Championship, where he played really well just days after the birth of his second child.

I'm not at all surprised he missed the cut at a long, soft Augusta, and he was better again at the more suitable RSM Classic last time where he drove poorly in round one, but well thereafter.

Key to this however is his form at those correlating courses, and his fairways-and-putter style which is in common with many a former winner. Putnam has been runner-up at each of Waialae and Southwind, third at Colonial, fifth in the Dominican Republic, and eighth at TPC San Antonio, efforts which have to make him of interest.

It's been a difficult year for the American but he looks to be returning to form and is capable of leaving past results here behind at 200/1.

Posted at 1345 GMT on 01/12/20

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