Free golf betting tips: Ben Coley previews Golf in Dubai Championship

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2.5pts e.w. Thomas Pieters at 22/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 35/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Romain Langasque at 55/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) (out due to Covid-19)

1pt e.w. Alexander Bjork at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Hao-tong Li at 90/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Ross Fisher at 90/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Every stop on the European Tour since it returned this summer has been a welcome one, but for some the best players on the circuit few may prove as significant as the Golf in Dubai Championship. Taking place on the Fire Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates, it provides an ideal means of preparation for next week's DP World Tour Championship at the Earth Course, and those who have opted to take part in both may reap the rewards come the conclusion of this unique Race to Dubai.

That there are not more high-profile players in this week's field can be explained by the difference in respective purses, which means that this will not determine who ends the year as the circuit's leading player. Still, there is huge money at stake even for those who won't be challenging Patrick Reed as he seeks to add the season-long prize to his list of achievements for which he already has earned lifelong membership.

That's why those around the bubble (uses word apprehensively) have added incentive and we also need to consider the Official World Golf Rankings. With just weeks to go on the European Tour and one on the PGA Tour, the likes of Matt Wallace and Rickie Fowler have much to play for. Should they remain as they are at 51st and 49th, Fowler would be in the field for the Masters next April. Should they swap positions, then it's Wallace who will receive his invite over Christmas.

Such factors are difficult to measure but look at Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who climbed from 61st to 41st with victory at Leopard Creek last week, and Sergio Garcia, who was about to fall outside the top 50 for the first time in more than 20 years before he won at the Sanderson Farms. Towards the end of the year, when tanks are beginning to empty, having something to play for beyond the week-to-week prizes can be vital.

Wallace then is interesting, not least because he's been playing well for a while now and has been second over on the Earth Course. Also second in the Dubai Desert Classic and presumably back with Dave McNeilly, who had reportedly tested positive for coronavirus without suffering any of its worst effects, the Englishman helps form a strong front portion of the betting.

Robert MacIntyre, Bernd Wiesberger, Martin Kaymer, Aaron Rai, Andy Sullivan and Thomas Detry also look to be at or close to their best (well, perhaps not quite Kaymer given that his best is leagues above the others), but the pick of the market leaders is THOMAS PIETERS and he gets the headline vote.

On the face of it, Pieters' form is the most flimsy of this group and yet it's not difficult to forgive a poor display at Wentworth, nor being caught on the wrong side of the draw in Scotland. Prior to that fortnight he'd been 23rd in the US Open and his only other two starts since lockdown came in Wales, where he was third and 15th at Celtic Manor.

The first of those performances is particularly notable, because Pieters has often produced his best golf after a break - and he'd been out of action for more than five months, during which period he became a parent. Last summer's back-to-form win in Prague came after a month away, but it's his record in Abu Dhabi, where he's had a genuine chance to win on four of his last six visits, which really appeals.

Though the Fire Course is new to us, it's not unreasonable to expect it to play somewhat similarly to the other regular stops in the Middle East, most of which tie together nicely. Abu Dhabi is of similar length and characteristics and is only made difficult by bad weather, of which none is forecast. Typically these modern courses do favour bigger hitters and the winner come Saturday (note: Wednesday start) will surely have been among the top handful from tee-to-green.

The other similarity here might be that Abu Dhabi is the first event back for most of the top-class players, Pieters included, and he's always appeared reinvigorated by some time off over Christmas. That removes any concern that he's been away since Wentworth and potentially puts him at an advantage against someone like Rai, who needed a break but has to now show that he can pick up where he left off, and those who haven't been seen since Cyprus.

Kaymer of course has provided even more compelling evidence as to his ability to get straight back to work, with three wins to his name in Abu Dhabi, but at the prices it's Pieters who looks better value. He was 28/1 at Wentworth and with no Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood or Reed, anything starting with a two is worth taking here.

Finding an angle in any new event can be tricky but Greg Norman provides one, as he also designed the Earth Course plus Al Mouj, which hosts the Oman Open. Sami Valimaki won there back in March and is respected, but at slightly bigger odds I'm compelled to chance RASMUS HOJGAARD, who finished sixth in the same event.

This brilliant young Dane has slipped down the market due to a perceived loss of form which is hard to dispute in raw terms: he went 2-6-3-1 when returning in July, and hasn't cracked the top 30 in five starts since. However, within this run he's played in a US Open (MC), had his first look at the claustrophobic Valderrama (31st) and played in his first regular PGA Tour event (37th). Then there are his debuts in the BMW PGA (MC) and Scottish Open (48th, putting badly), and a missed cut in the Cyprus Showdown, a gimmicky new event on the schedule.

Each and every one of these comes with an asterisk, whether it's too much, too soon, a shocker on the greens or a missed cut when he'd have made it in any other event, as was the case last time in the Cyprus Showdown. There, Hojgaard doubled the 36th hole, a short par-five, when birdie would've seen him through. He'd otherwise played pretty nicely despite having flown in from Bermuda, where 37th was a really good effort.

With his ball-striking in Cyprus still very strong - he gained over three strokes, and gave all of them back with the putter - I'm not sure he's actually that far away, and that immediately makes him interesting. Throw in the fact that he's right in the mix for bonuses in the Race to Dubai and isn't without hope of cracking the world's top 50 with a dream fortnight, and there are reasons aplenty for chancing the brightest prospect in the field at 35/1.

Remember, Hojgaard looked like he might win in Oman so he has some Norman form, and two wins in his first 16 starts on the European Tour demonstrate exactly what we're dealing with. He is undoubtedly difficult to price and has been ever since coming through Qualifying School, but only terrible form could merit the odds quoted this week. It might not look it, but behind the letters and numbers he appears to be close enough to where we need him.

It's a similar story with ROMAIN LANGASQUE (Note: Langasque withdrew on Tuesday due to a positive Covid-19 test) and he's preferred to Adri Arnaus, who blew a fine chance to win on Sunday and is now a fair bit shorter for an event which is a fair bit stronger. Arnaus is a local resident who was third in the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year, and he could go right to the top in this sport, but for now the ship appears to have sailed, and it's the Frenchman who looks better value.

Like Hojgaard, Langasque appears to have gone off the boil just slightly since a come-from-behind win in Wales, but he too is probably a lot closer than it seems. Certainly there was a lot to like about 34th in the US Open, where he hit the ball really well, and a missed cut in Scotland can be written off given he faced the worst of the weather. He then played reasonably at Wentworth and finished 28th in the Cyprus Open, before starting the Showdown with back-to-back 66s, each of them bogey-free.

Returning for that strange Saturday, Langasque doubtless grew frustrated at making par at the first nine holes when it really was all about birdies. Despite picking up a shot at the 10th, he made his sole serious mistake, a double at the difficult 12th, and that put paid to his chances. He was two-under for the final five but missed out on the final round by a couple of shots. In other words you might find 'MC' next to his name, depending on where you get your form, but he was the fifth-best player over the first 36 holes and appeared to be in great touch.

That makes Langasque's form look very similar to the way he preceded a victory in Wales, and he's certainly driving the ball particularly well which is exactly what he did when making a solid start to the year in the Middle East. His overall record out here is strong, and he's been in Dubai for a fortnight to prepare for the final two events of his breakthrough campaign. The sky remains the limit and he looks a player here at a course where his relentless aggression, similar to that of Hojgaard, should unlock plenty of opportunities.

It's always hard to see past the class acts at the top of the betting when we've a fairly straightforward course and the prospect of warm, sunny, calm weather, and chances are the winner has already been mentioned at some point above - hopefully in nice, big, capital letters.

Still, returning to that Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and possible parallels, given how few of these have match practice in the last few weeks, gives hope for an upset. Winners there include Pablo Larrazabal, Jamie Donaldson, Robert Rock and Gary Stal, with more recent victories for Fleetwood (the first time), Shane Lowry and Lee Westwood all seeing them upstage far more fancied players who perhaps lacked cutting edge.

I've always felt that helps explain why Rory McIlroy hasn't yet won the event, at a course so suited to him, often because of a silly, mental mistake like failing to take full relief or sweeping sand out of his line when not yet on the green. These are errors which might not happen when the season is in full swing and while I can't argue the dynamics are identical, clearly it's been four weeks or more since most of these have played a proper, 72-hole stroke play event.

Wiesberger and MacIntyre are in-form exceptions with every chance, but 12/1 at a new course doesn't interest me and I'll hope for a Rock-like result with ROSS FISHER, a bona fide desert specialist.

Although far from his best of late, Fisher has been driving it well again and that's the club which has powered success throughout his lengthy career. When he's on-song from the tee there aren't many better than this Westwoodesque driver and having ranked seventh at Wentworth and gained almost five strokes in two rounds in Cyprus, the signs are that he is.

We'll need improvement elsewhere, but Fisher always thrived in the Middle East and has been second and sixth over the course of the last three renewals of the Abu Dhabi Championship - the latter coming just this year. He also brings some Al Mouj form to the table having been 10th there in March and that form he produced at the start of 2020 - 6-MC-6-10, all in the Gulf - underlines how comfortable he is on these desert courses.

Last time out he missed the cut in the Showdown, but that's despite shooting five-under - in other words, he was one shot shy of making the weekend, and would've sailed through in any other event. We only have to skip back two starts from that for 20th place in Rolex Series company at Wentworth, and nine of his last 10 rounds have been better than the field average.

Again, perhaps Fisher isn't playing at all badly and it's perhaps significant that he hit a milestone birthday last week, turning 40. Plenty of players who reach 40 continue to struggle, but there are countless examples where there's been an immediate upturn and we're really not looking for much if he brings his Wentworth form to this lesser company and, despite his local ties to Surrey, probably a more suitable course.

Fisher is also 57th in the Race to Dubai so his place in the DP World Tour Championship will be under threat if he does miss the cut, and with some low rounds next door to his name he's worth a dart at 80/1 and bigger.

Romain Wattel remains a player of real talent and potential and his share of 11th in Joburg caught the eye. At his best a quality ball-striker whose win came on a modern design in the Netherlands, and who was once third at the nearby Majlis Course, he's among the more interesting options at massive prices for all he's been inconsistent for a number of years.

Lucas Bjerregaard is in a similar category now but it's not that long ago he was inside the world's top 50 and reports from both him and coach Sean Foley of late suggest things are looking up. That was certainly true of his ball-striking at Leopard Creek, but some ugly work on and around the greens amounted to two big scores and it's asking a lot to marry all parts at what might prove to be an early stage in his rehabilitation.

Instead then I'll chance another duo who have often played well in the Middle East - ALEXANDER BJORK and HAO-TONG LI.

Starting with the latter, here we have a player who won the Dubai Desert Classic in 2018, taking down McIlroy, and who was fourth at the halfway stage of this year's Abu Dhabi Championship to demonstrate both his ability to go well after a break, and his suitability to the courses out in the UAE.

It's little wonder Li spends so much time here when he's not playing tournament golf and he should be ready to go from the off, especially as at 79th in the Race to Dubai he can't afford a slow start.

As with a couple of my selections, he officially missed the cut at the Cyprus Showdown but in fact shot four-under and though it's been a mixed bag since the resumption, he has led a major championship, finished 14th from an awful draw in Scotland and eighth in Wales, and he's always been nothing if not volatile.

Indeed, both previous European Tour wins came on the back of a missed cut and under low-scoring conditions on modern courses best suited to power hitters. Given his wider Middle East form such as second in the Saudi International behind Dustin Johnson, and even 18th at Al Mouj earlier this year, he makes plenty of appeal at such big prices.

Finally, Bjork has made nine out of 10 cuts in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, a sequence which includes finding himself in contention at the neighbouring Earth Course on his first visit there. In fact, the Swede has played next door twice, and his 69.13 scoring average is right behind McIlroy and among the very best around.

As a result he's bagged successive top-20 finishes and it's tempting to play him in the same market, taking the view that a title like this might be just beyond him. That said, he did threaten to win a Rolex Series event in England and impressed when winning in China, while he also has seventh place at Al Mouj and sixth at a new course in Qatar to strengthen the case that he improves on this type of golf course.

With his approach play firing - it's Bjork's strength when he's at his best, and he's ranked seventh, 10th, eighth and 12th across his last six starts - and wide fairways likely to help with his occasionally erratic driving, he looks capable of mixing it with the bigger-hitting and slightly better players at the very top of the market.

Posted at 1915 GMT on 30/11/20

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