Free golf betting tips: Ben Coley previews the SA Open

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2pts e.w. Joost Luiten at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Matthias Schwab at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Dean Burmester at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Jbe Kruger at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Richard McEvoy at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

The difficulty I have with the SA Open, which this week heads to the iconic Sun City, is in imagining most of the field lifting this historic trophy. In the main it has proven beyond the reach of Sunshine Tour players who, because of a markedly weaker field, now have to be taken seriously. The European Tour players who are here have generally endured disappointing seasons: only Brandon Stone, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Pablo Larrazabal have already qualified for the Race to Dubai final. At a fearsome golf course, which usually hosts the world-class Nedbank Challenge, everything seems a little out of sync.

Stone and Bezuidenhout take up two of the top three positions in the market, with Masters fifth Dylan Frittelli joining them, and all three are part of the small group who are capable of winning even a strong renewal of the tournament. Stone has already done so, Bezuidenhout has been second, and longer-than-he-was Frittelli is better than he was when playing some nice golf for 21st here a couple of years ago. The trouble is, two are at single-figure prices and Stone, who is playing really well, has finished 60th of 71, 66th of 70, and 69th of 70, in his three starts at Sun City.

Wilco Nienaber, Garrick Higgo and Jayden Trey Schaper all have obvious claims and could be ready to win this despite their tender years. For Schaper, the challenge will be to bounce back from a disappointing finish to the Alfred Dunhill Championship, while Nienaber will have to avoid the ruinous errors his swing speed can bring. Higgo, who won his first professional title here in 2019 and is already a European Tour champion, has been disappointing for a fortnight. Still, he's gone from half Schaper's price to a touch bigger with most and if his long-game is back on-song, he might be the one.

Those are the key home challengers, and it will be fascinating to see how each of them copes under the pressure of playing for this title - particularly now the nines have been switched, which means the final hole will be the ninth, one of the most dramatic risk-reward par-fives in golf. There is absolutely no doubt that even some of the most decorated South African players have found the pressure of playing for their national championship a little too much, most notably Charl Schwartzel. His friend Louis Oosthuizen did finally win the event in 2018 and wept more than Bubba Watson did when denying him a green jacket. It means a heck of a lot to the locals.

For JOOST LUITEN, there's a different kind of motivation for all that I'm sure he'd be delighted to have his name etched onto this trophy, perhaps more so than most as a Dutchman.

Anyway, Luiten is 78th in the Race to Dubai entering this and needs a huge week if he's to make the DP World Tour Championship. As I alluded to a fortnight ago at Randpark, where a desperate first round saw him miss the cut, Luiten has played the season finale every year since 2010 and it's a massive goal of his, as he confirmed a couple of days ago.

"I was planning to play the Golf in Dubai Championship next week, but I decided to stay in South Africa for the South African Open," he wrote. "The tournament in Dubai starts on Wednesday and I cannot arrive in Dubai until Tuesday at the earliest.

"The South African Open is played at the Gary Player Country Club, a course that I know well from the Nedbank Challenge and which I also like. That's why I now choose that tournament. Hopefully I will play a week later than in Dubai, because my goal is of course to force participation in the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Estates."

Luiten's decision could pay off, because he's got a strong and improving record here. It took him a while to figure things out - perhaps his natural tendency to fire at every flag needed curbing given cloverleaf-shaped greens which help to hide them - but he looks to have done so, finishing 14th, 12th, 27th and 10th since the field was expanded to 70. That's rock-solid form in elite company and he faces nothing like it here.

Key to winning at Sun City has always been hitting those small greens, which stems from strong driving - hence Lee Westwood's love affair with the course, and Tommy Fleetwood's victory last year. The winners of the 2013, 2015 and 2016 editions of the Nedbank all led the field in greens hit and the three of the other four during this span ranked eighth or better, with Branden Grace's grit and short-game enough to make him the exception. It's a ball-striker's paradise.

Luiten, one of the most tidy tee-to-green operators on the European Tour, ranked fifth for greens last year and second in 2017, and his long-game appeared in good shape when he finished 31st at Leopard Creek last week. In fairness, it wasn't the problem at Randpark, where he missed just one green in the second round as his rally to make the weekend came up just shy, and it's only the putter that's holding him back.

That's been the case for a while now and remains something of a worry, but more so than Randpark and Leopard Creek, Sun City is a course where you can putt modestly and still win. It's been done before, and Luiten can be fancied to stay out of trouble which he had done last week until running up an eight at the last. He was far from the only one and it was a rare blemish from a player who ranks seventh in total driving over the last three months.

If he again hits it well, I don't see him being at all far away from achieving his goal and he looks the one from the front of the betting given that course experience he's built up.

MATTHIAS SCHWAB brings a very similar profile to Sun City in terms of what has prevented him from taking advantage of some strong tee-to-green displays recently, but if he does maintain this level of control with his long-game he too has an excellent chance.

The Austrian is a quality operator who has been mixing it for Rolex Series titles and came close to winning on the PGA Tour this summer. There are few more reliable off the tee and with their approach shots and while disconcerting to see him string together a sequence of short misses during the Alfred Dunhill Championship, come the end of the event his putting stats were no cause for alarm.

Focusing on what he's done from tee-to-green helps underline how well set he is for this relentless examination. He's ranked first, fifth and sixth over his last three traditional events having had a poor week in the Cyprus Showdown. His iron play in particular has been outstanding and he looks back in the sort of form which saw him bag three top-five finishes at this time last year, including in Turkey where he ought to have won.

As with any such player, until they go and do it we have to have slight reservations, but most of this field are nowhere near Schwab's ability and he looks primed to win under the right circumstances. Sun City, where he ranked 18th in greens hit in an otherwise low-key first look two years ago, is the sort of course which should complement his game and I can't find a good reason to leave him out.

With slight injury concerns surrounding George Coetzee and Jamie Donaldson, Scott Jamieson hardly the sort of player you'd rush to support at 22/1 and likewise Shaun Norris, there aren't many other solid propositions towards the top of the market.

DEAN BURMESTER is among the exceptions and while missing the cut last week is hardly ideal, given that it too came on a difficult, Gary Player-designed course, it was the seventh time he'd done so in nine visits to Leopard Creek.

Here at Sun City, he hadn't done much in a couple of starts but then finished 11th in 2018, ranking eighth in greens hit, 12th in strokes-gained approach and 11th off-the-tee. He was in fact on course for a top-five finish until a couple of late slip-ups and returns in better form than he was then having popped up regularly throughout the summer in Europe.

Notably, both top-six finishes came after missed cuts so there really is no reason to get hung up on the Alfred Dunhill, especially as his two starts before it saw him contend when fifth in Italy, and return from a break to take 18th in the Joburg Open - a personal best at Randpark.

Burmester's length is a definite asset on this beast of a course and, as with Luiten, I'm drawn to the idea that he has that one percent extra motivation which may even take his mind off the significance of this event to South African players.

"I’m in the top 60 now and hopefully I can get to Dubai," he wrote ahead of last week's event, before falling to 61st. "I find it motivating to set a yearly or long-term goal, and making it to the DP World Tour Championship was a goal of mine because 2019 wasn’t a good year for me, so if I can get there this will have been.

"I also love that golf course. I’ve played twice and finished fourth both times, and it’s one of the biggest events I feel like I could win anytime I show up. I obviously want to win another tournament on the European Tour, but I’m taking one small mini goal at a time hopefully it ends up with me playing in Dubai at the end of this season."

Having found his putting touch this summer, which is something of an understatement, and won a co-sanctioned event before, Burmester has plenty in his favour and rates far better value than the likes of Shaun Norris and Daniel van Tonder.

Once you get below Burmester in the market, you're hitting those Sunshine Tour regulars who have established themselves in Europe without looking like they'll win. Examples include Bryce Easton and Louis de Jager, with Zander Lombard clearly still struggling with a rib injury and Richard Sterne on the comeback trail.

Larrazabal has to be respected given his winning pedigree and Julian Suri could bounce back from being eaten alive by Leopard Creek on Sunday, prior to which he'd played really nicely. And then there's Scott Vincent, a Zimbabwean with a touch of class relative to this grade and whose driving stats of late caught the eye. He was very much the last sensible option off the list.

At bigger prices, though, it was harder to narrow things down, so you'll forgive me for going down a cul-de-sac or two.

Marcel Siem is clearly getting there and has gone close here. He's been talking the talk recently and played a lot of good golf at Leopard Creek last week, writing on Facebook: "I am playing much better and consistent than the last two years. Now I need to find my skill back to focus and getting the job done over four rounds." Having been placed here in the Nedbank, he was considered at 150/1 generally and 175/1 in places.

At bigger still, Alvaro Quiros found his way onto the radar. His first win came in South Africa, his iron play has been excellent over the past fortnight, and his length - if harnessed - could be a huge advantage. Quiros was 24th on his one and only try here and it came just last year, so at 250/1 he's not dismissed lightly, especially as for all his poor golf he's won or placed every year since 2016 - a record which will end unless he manages it this week.

Cormac Sharvin is playing well and his strength is driving the ball, while at 300/1 in places I did think Philip Erikkson might be overpriced. This 29-year-old Swede hasn't done much on the European Tour but it's early days from his lowly category, having been 38th at Qualifying School last year - in itself a very decent effort. He was eighth and 13th across that low-key fortnight in Austria and has played plenty on the Sunshine Tour, where he's won the Dimension Data Pro-Am - the biggest event on the schedule outside those which are co-sanctioned.

Those facts plus a good share of 39th at Leopard Creek, where his iron play was good, put this reasonably big-hitter in the 'interesting' category. In fact of all the outsiders he's the one I found hardest to leave out, although I expect a few will chance Austin Bautista given his form on mini tours in the USA and the fact he was a good amateur a couple of years ago. @SkyHookDFS brought him to my attention (thanks!) and while this is probably too much at this stage, he's an unknown at 500/1.

Quality young amateurs Casey Jarvis and Yurav Premlall are ones to watch - remember, in January we saw Schaper contend and finish in the places in this very event while still an amateur - but this is a very long, demanding course of which I can find no evidence that either has experience. They're not overlooked lightly but ultimately will have done well should they make the weekend.

All of which leads me to the final two selections and while I've buried this somewhat, I have to say I thought JBE KRUGER was the bet of the week across all tours.

Some South African regulars struggle in this event - Frittelli is a good example, having got nowhere near to winning it, and Schwartzel's wait goes on. Others seem to thrive, and Kruger is one of them. All told he's made the cut in nine of his 12 attempts, including finishes of seventh in December 2018 and second in November 2013. In five of his nine starts in the SA Open he's been inside the top 10 at halfway having regularly started well and he is of interest at 100/1 in the first-round leader market, having done so twice at two different courses.

Then we come to his Sun City record, which is equally encouraging. Though yet to qualify for a Nedbank Challenge, he's played various Sunshine Tour events here and hasn't missed the cut since his 2007 debut. Returning later that year to finish fifth, he's never been worse than 21st at the course across these nine starts, and he was one shot off the course record in 2018 when firing a second-round 64.

Crucially, all of his recent success here has been powered by quality ball-striking, ranking third, fourth and 14th in greens hit across his last three visits and driving the ball well. That's what he's done over the last fortnight, finishing 35th in both the Alfred Dunhill and in Joburg before that, and his greens-in-regulation numbers - which at his peak were exceptionally strong - improved across the two.

Unlike so many of his compatriots, Kruger has won on the European Tour in India, and last September he won a quality event in Asia, too. His form this summer had been poor and he's among those who were forced to isolate after a positive Covid-19 test, but a return home has sparked improvement and he knows this course so well.

Given that he's proven that he can rise to the challenge of playing for this title, he looks to have been underestimated and can again force his way into the mix.

Finally, RICHARD MCEVOY's form over the last two weeks earns him the benefit of the doubt at around the 200/1 mark.

Another who is a proven winner having finally landed his first European Tour title in Germany two years ago, McEvoy is capable of emulating fellow veteran Graeme Storm, who won this at Rory McIlroy's expense at the beginning of the 2017.

He's led the field in driving accuracy in each of the last two events, gaining strokes off the tee despite being a short hitter, and in fact Leopard Creek was the first time he'd produced positive figures through the bag since his breakthrough in the European Open.

There are of course concerns that he's not powerful enough for this, but Green Eagle - scene of his victory, at the expense of Bryson DeChambeau - is among the most big-hitter-friendly courses on the circuit, playing to almost 7,600 yards and with five par-fives.

McEvoy conquered it because all aspects of his game worked at the same time and because his confidence was soaring, having won on the Challenge Tour just before it. Prior to that he'd finished 26th, 29th and 33rd and having gone 49-42-25 across his last three starts (bar the Showdown, where he wasn't far off) and having been sixth in greens and second in scrambling as well last week, there are signs he's in really good nick.

He'll need to be but his best effort in South Africa came in this event nine years ago and he is another who is more than good enough to contend given the lack of depth on show.

Posted at 0950 GMT on 01/12/20

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