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Golf preview: US Open round four outright and two-ball betting tips
Ben Coley previews the final round of the US Open, where England's Matt Fitzpatrick has every chance to underline his love for Brookline.
Golf betting tips: US Open final round
3pts win Matt Fitzpatrick at 100/30 (General)
1pt double Matsuyama and Power to win their two-balls at 3/1 (Unibet)
Saturday's third round at the US Open was in many ways exactly what we all expected. The Country Club, helped by a stiff breeze from the first tee-time until the last putt, became a fearsome and unrelenting examination – any loss of focus or control and a big number was the price. Come the end of the day scoring had leapt up over a stroke and a half from Friday, and that's despite the field now featuring only those who'd played well to that point.
In other ways, it wasn't. Few if any would've expected the mistakes we saw from Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, just as they had respectively appeared set to take command. There were reasons to worry about Collin Morikawa, but a seven-over 77 despite a solid start was nevertheless shocking. With Rory McIlroy fighting for dear life, the prospect of one of these four winning has gone from 1/2 to something like 6/4; odds-on to odds-against.
From my perspective, Rahm's six at the final hole was a disappointing way to end the day. Having sided with him at 16/1 prior to the tournament this outcome would've been gratefully received at the time of publication, but with eight realistic winners including some of the world's best players, that double-bogey exposed the fragility of backing anyone win-only.
Nevertheless, I've felt all week that he's looked the man to beat and whoever does might well win the US Open. Rahm was for the most part excellent in round three, what we saw of him at least, and had his drive up the 18th hole been a yard to the right I would be writing about how high he sets the bar. More to the point, I'd likely have been advising we have a couple of savers on Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick, but those two are now ahead of the Spaniard in the market.
This is a familiar position for both men, and a familiar question for us to ponder: is it right that Fitzpatrick is ever so slightly shorter than Zalatoris in the revised betting?
At the US PGA Championship, it made no sense to me. They went into the final round on the same score. Zalatoris had been shorter odds pre-tournament. Fitzpatrick was the one who had to deal with playing in the final group. Zalatoris was the one who had already felt what it's like to play the back-nine of a major championship with a chance to win. The American ought to have been shorter and, in the end, events reflected that.
Here, I'm less sure. Splitting them isn't easy and the current gap (4.3 to 5.0) on the exchanges might be a bit too wide, but at 100/30 and 7/2 respectively and with those advantages Zalatoris had at the PGA no longer in play, I'm happy to suggest MATT FITZPATRICK as the bet for those who already have Rahm on-side.
Fitzpatrick of course won the US Amateur here at Brookline and there's just a sense that he's far more at ease than was the case at Southern Hills. That's perfectly normal, given that he'd never been in that situation before, and so often we talk about major champions having learned – often very quickly – from such an experience.
"I think up until Southern Hills really, I didn't really appreciate how hard it is actually to win a major," he admitted on Saturday night. "Yeah, I've not challenged really up until then. I think, myself included, and people on the outside maybe think it's easier than it is.
"You just have to look at Tiger. He knocked off so many in such a quick span. That's why I think people think, oh, it's a piece of cake; it's like a regular Tour event. But it's not.
"It brings a lot more to the mental aspect of the game than other regular events, and for me I think it's been a big change from US PGA to come here to a golf course I know so well, and it's given me extra confidence."
Fitzpatrick had already been asked about the support he'd received, whether it related to what he achieved here in 2013, and whether he genuinely believed an amateur tournament nine years ago really could be the difference when it comes to winning not just his first major, but first title on US soil.
"I certainly think it gives me an edge over the others, yeah," he said. "I genuinely do believe that. It's a real, obviously, positive moment in my career. It kind of kickstarted me. To come back here and play so well again, it kind of just gives me growing confidence round by round."
All of this feels significant to me, as does the fact he has friends and family with him and is even staying with the same family who looked after him when he won the US Amateur. Just as Keegan Bradley had this tournament circled in the calendar for many years and is delivering now it's here, so has Fitzpatrick managed to do that, and to some extent it's because of things off the course as well as on it.
When it comes to the golf, we've all seen how well he's driven the ball throughout the week, with only Rahm and Gary Woodland ahead of him in the strokes-gained stats. His approach play has been solid, his work around the green has been spectacular, and of those in the mix he's the one who has relied least on his putter. All things being equal, he is the best putter on this leaderboard, so there's plenty of headroom.
On balance then, under these specific circumstances I believe he's the one to beat, though I must stress that Sunday bets are influenced by those placed before the tournament. If you don't already have a position then things are more complicated, and bets like Fitzpatrick and Rahm in the dual forecast market (17/2) with a saver on Fitzpatrick and Zalatoris (15/2) would have to be considered.
This focus on the front three risks underestimating Scheffler, whose par save at the last could prove to be significant. He's been the best ball-striker in the field this week, albeit the figures are arguably massaged just a little by a wedge dropping into the hole rather than next to it. Still, he steadied himself in the manner you'd expect from a Masters champion and will have been delighted to see Rahm make a mess of the 18th just after he'd finished.
The same is true of McIlroy, who was all over the place late on but kept making the putts needed to keep his head above water. The 2011 champion leads the field in strokes-gained putting having been strangely poor around the green, but three back is a nice position for all I don't necessarily see it as a free roll of the dice. It's hard to think that when you listen to him speak about how much he longs to win majors again.
Bradley is a player I admire enormously and there are others not mentioned who will take inspiration from what happened at the US PGA, where Justin Thomas came from the clouds to win a play-off. Such an outcome can't be ruled out but I do believe that Brookline is harder to attack in the way that Thomas did at Southern Hills, and whereas there looked to be some weakness to that leaderboard, this one looks impenetrable.
So, Rahm or Fitzpatrick and a win for Europe it is. Zalatoris certainly is no good thing to putt anything like as well as he did on Saturday, and his occasional flare off the tee might catch him out in the way it did Morikawa. Whatever happens, we're in for a fabulous end to a fine championship.
Best two-ball bets for the final round
Hopefully David Lingmerth can avoid disaster and land top Swedish (4/1) and Scandinavian (12/1) player bets, while Adam Scott is T2 in the battle to be the top Australian. Leading the way and two ahead of Scott is Min Woo Lee and it's all to play for between those two and Marc Leishman, with Todd Sinnott surely having too much to do.
With Burns advised at 66/1 antepost but to only six places and Morikawa close enough to get back inside the top 10 there's plenty to play for this evening and no real urge to go steaming into any two-balls, but HIDEKI MATSUYAMA and SEAMUS POWER make for a nice double at around 3/1.
Matsuyama is a slight underdog against Dustin Johnson but his form has greater substance to it. Matsuyama's long-game has also been far superior (about twice as many strokes-gained ball-striking) and Johnson ranked second only to Zalatoris in putting yesterday.
Clearly, he has it within himself to hit the ball much better but both his driving and approach play have been long-term problems whereas Matsuyama, first in strokes-gained approach during round three, has no such questions to answer. I'd give him the edge here and the price looks generous.
Power meanwhile just looks like one of those golfers who is built for majors, largely because he has a really well-balanced game which includes sufficient power for the sport as it is in 2022. He ranked second to Matsuyama in approach play yesterday whereas Matthew NeSmith, usually a poor putter, shot 74 while making almost everything he looked at.
It wasn't surprising to see NeSmith struggle and Power's overall form, plus his far superior play in majors, entitles him to be a stronger favourite. At 10/11 he'd be the bet of the day but I'm happy enough to throw him in with Matsuyama for a small double which can run in the background. It's all eyes on the very top of the leaderboard from 7.45.
Posted at 1030 BST on 19/06/22
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