- Jake's Predictions (before this midweek): Staked 400.50pts | Returned 424.47pts | P/L +23.97pts | ROI 6.0%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Thursday
2pts Enzo Fernandez 4+ foul involvements in Chelsea vs Spurs (20:00) at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Enzo Fernandez 5+ foul involvements in Chelsea vs Spurs (20:00) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 3/5 | Draw 10/3 | Away 18/5
Chelsea and Tottenham are both incredibly unpredictable teams from a results perspective.
The Blues have won just two of their last five league games, those coming at home to Leicester and Southampton, while Tottenham have lost over half of their league games this term.
We do at least know how the visitors will approach this game, which should make things more hectic than Chelsea would like. Enzo Maresca's side have been incredibly passive in their last few outings, but will have to crank up the intensity to match Spurs.
That should lead to fouls, and I'm going to return to ENZO FERNANDEZ 4+ FOUL INVOLVEMENTS for this game.
It didn't land the last time it was tipped in this column, landing two of the required four, but given the opponent I'm willing to wade back in.
That's because the two outliers during his recent foul-glut have been against two of the worst sides in the league, Leicester and Southampton.
Exclude those games where there was little to no jeopardy for the Blues, and Fernandez has hit 4+ foul involvements in all of his last seven league games, averaging 5.86 in that time.
He also landed four in the reverse fixture, so at 7/4, I'll happily back a repeat, especially as he will be directly up against James Maddison.
Given his average we'll also have a smaller bet on 5+ FOUL INVOLVEMENTS with this copping in all of his last seven too.
A reminder that foul involvements are a combination of fouls committed and fouls won, so Fernandez could finish with two fouls won and three committed and this bet would be a winner.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 48
- Manchester City 3-0 Leicester
- Newcastle 2-1 Brentford
- Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 2-1 Ipswich
- Southampton 0-3 Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 2-1 Everton
Already advised
Tuesday
1pt Nottingham Forest to win and Under 3.5 Goals vs Man Utd (20:00) at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Konstantinos Mavropanos 1+ total shot in Wolves vs West Ham (19:45) at 37/40 (BetVictor)
Wednesday
1pt Dean Huijsen to be carded in Bournemouth vs Ipswich (19:45) at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Aston Villa to beat Brighton (19:45) at 23/10 (Betfair, Unibet)
1.5pts Under 2.5 cards in Man City vs Leicester (19:45) at 6/4 (Unibet)
0.5pt Under 1.5 cards in Man City vs Leicester (19:45) at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt No cards in Man City vs Leicester (19:45) at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts C Palace -1.0 Asian Handicap vs Southampton (19:45) at 11/10 (bet365)
1pt Jarell Quansah 2+ fouls committed in Liverpool vs Everton (20:00) at 23/10 (Betfair)
0.5pt Curtis Jones to be carded in Liverpool vs Everton (20:00) at 11/2 (BetVictor)
Everyone well-rested after the international break and a weekend of no Premier League action? I certainly hope so, as that's it now, no more breaks, just relentless, wall-to-wall football for the next two months.
I'm looking forward to it. Though ask me again in two weeks time and my answer may well have changed!
Anyway, we have a midweek round of Premier League action to get stuck into, with some blockbuster matches, and hopefully plenty of value to be had.
Arsenal vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 10/3 | Away 7/1
The goals have understandably dried up for Arsenal. Since beating Manchester City 5-1 and losing Kai Havertz to injury, the Gunners' following five league matches have seen a total of just six goals, with Mikel Arteta's side netting four.
Fulham are a strong defensive side, but remain untrustworthy, and they will be desperately disappointed with how they performed in their FA Cup quarter-final at the weekend.
It's a no bet here, though Under 2.5 Goals came close to making the staking plan at 4/5.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Wolves vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 19/10
Wolves are all-but safe after their win over Southampton before the international break. That success was their third in six games, suffering just two defeats in that time, a run that has moved them nine points clear of the bottom three.
They still have issues defending set-pieces, and that looks the best way to profit on Tuesday. An opposition centre-back has taken at least one shot in seven of their last 10 outings in all competitions, and we'll back KONSTANTINOS MAVROPANOS to make it eight in 11 by taking 1+ TOTAL SHOT at Molineux.
He gets the nod due to his superior shots per 90 record compared to his fellow centre-backs, with the Greek defender averaging an impressive 0.87 this season. Former Wolves captain Max Kilman is averaging just 0.37 shots per 90, while Jean-Clair Todibo is even less at 0.31.
The fact that Mavropanos, while being an aerial threat from set-pieces, also likes to pull the trigger from distance is a huge bonus too, as is the fact that James Ward-Prowse is being given a run in the team, meaning every Hammers dead-ball situation will be delivered expertly.
For those that like big prices, Mavropanos is 50/1 to score first and 20/1 to net anytime in this game with Sky Bet, but I'll just stick to the one shot for the column.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 13/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 2/1
What a season this could turn into for Nottingham Forest. Third in the league and into the FA Cup semi-finals, it really is dream-like stuff for a team who only just survived relegation in the previous two campaigns.
The City Ground has been a fortress this season, with Nuno Espirito Santo's side winning eight of 14 home league games, and the Tricky Trees are on a 10 game unbeaten run in front of their own fans across all competitions, winning eight of those.
Despite having played 120 minutes and penalties last weekend, I have to get NOTTINGHAM FOREST onside in some capacity, and its the WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS which appealed at 9/4.
Nuno's men have been excellent defensively this term, especially at home, conceding the fewest goals (10) and the third fewest expected goals (13.6 - 0.97 per game), so should have no problem keeping this Manchester United side at bay.
The Red Devils have been especially poor away from home under Ruben Amorim, winning just three of nine in the league and averaging a shocking 1.01 xGF and 1.67 xGA per game on their travels, collecting the sixth fewest expected points.
That attacking process suggests the visitors will struggle to find any joy on Tuesday night, while the hosts can do enough to edge to another win. Only three of Forest's 14 home games have gone over 3.5 goals this season, while six of their home wins have seen under 3.5 land too.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Bournemouth vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
Bournemouth's excellent season is petering out. The Cherries are out of the FA Cup and languish 10th in the league, now four points behind fifth. European football is still a possibility, but they can't afford many more slip ups, especially in these sorts of games.
Ipswich are now nine points from safety, meaning belief will be waning, though they could be an awkward opponent for their hosts on Wednesday. That's because of their ability to play direct football up to Liam Delap, which would negate Bournemouth's high-press.
Delap is a big unit who throws his weight around and is extremely physical, meaning he is booked regularly (nine) and he also draws plenty of cards from his centre-back opponent. Five of his opposing CB's have been booked in his last 11 outings, and at the prices, DEAN HIUJSEN looks a cracking candidate TO BE CARDED.
Huijsen had to sit out Bournemouth's FA Cup defeat at the weekend through suspension, but is back for this game, and I imagine that Delap will look to target the young Spaniard, fancying his chances to out-muscle the youngster.
The former Juventus man has been a revelation this season, but his disciplinary record does need some work. Huijsen has been carded eight times across all competitions this season, with his card per 90 average standing at 0.37.
That record makes the 10/3 solid value before we even look at the refereeing appointment, which is a positive one. Robert Jones is the man in the middle and he's dished 4.6 cards per game this season, so let's hope Delap roughs up Huijsen, who struggles to deal with the pace and physicality, resulting in plenty of fouling opportunities.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Brighton vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/4
Brighton went through the ringer on Saturday. Not only did they play 120 minutes in front of an expectant home crowd, but they were eliminated on penalties. I suspect the Seagulls may be mentally, physically and emotionally drained from that disappointment, making this a perfect time for ASTON VILLA to swoop.
In contrast to their hosts, Unai Emery's men had it nice and easy in the FA Cup, waltzing past Preston 3-0 with some key starters given the opportunity to rest.
That is in their favour, as is the fact that the Villans are nearly 100% healthy, with only Ross Barkley in the injury room, meaning Emery has the players at his disposal to now competently juggle midweek and weekend football.
I'd argue, when fully fit, that Villa are the third or fourth best team in the league, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them make a real charge for the top five now, starting with A WIN against one of their rivals.
The price looks enormous. It's 23/10 for Villa to win at the Amex, which represents huge value in my book. They have lost just one of their last 10 and have won all of their last five, so this could be the lift-off point for the side who finished fourth last season.
Speaking of last season, Villa went off at 17/10 to win this game, and I'd argue this Villa team is better than last season's, and while Brighton are probably a tad better too, the change in price is too big in the Seagulls favour.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Manchester City vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 1/6 | Draw 6/1 | Away 11/1
We'll now be taking a trip down UNDER CARDS lane.
Before the break I highlighted how Leicester were playing in an extremely tame manner under Ruud van Nistelrooy, resulting in a dearth of cards when they take to the field.
I hope that continues on Wednesday, where they'll be doing a lot of chasing and likely very little tackling, so we'll chance UNDER 2.5 CARDS at 6/4.
This bet has won in 10 of Van Nistelrooy's 18 games in charge, and has copped in eight of the Foxes most recent 12 outings. Referee Darren England has delivered two cards or fewer in five of his last 10, while this bet gets even more interesting when looking at Manchester City's recent home games.
Pep Guardiola's side have been very clean of late at the Etihad, with under 2.5 cards landing in seven of their last 11 and five of their most recent six home games.
Given the data and the likelihood that this game is a one-sided contest with Leicester eventually tapping out, we have to back UNDER 1.5 CARDS as well as NO CARDS at 4/1 and 16/1 respectively.
Under 1.5 has landed in seven of Leicester's last 11 and five of City's last six home games, while the no card game has clicked in four of City's last six at the Etihad and in four of Leicester's last 11, while the referee has overseen a no card game recently.
In terms of Leicester's away matches, they have seen no cards in two of their last four and under 1.5 cards in five of their last six. The only away game that saw a high card count was their win at Tottenham, so lets hope this is as uncompetitive as the other five.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Newcastle vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away 16/5
I imagine the Carabao Cup party will still be ongoing at St. James' Park, as it should be. I do wonder if that has been factored into Newcastle's price, with 3/4 bigger than I was expecting.
Still, it hasn't tempted me in with plenty of uncertainty around the hosts, even if they are bang in the hunt for Champions League football. Brentford's upturn in form doesn't help matters either, with the Bees winning five straight away games, including at Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
No bet.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Southampton vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 17/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/7
Don't overcomplicate this one. Southampton are one of the worst teams we have ever seen in the Premier League, and Crystal Palace have been one of the best sides in the top flight over the last 16 games.
When hosting good sides, the Saints have been steamrolled this season. They have lost all nine home games against sides in 14th and above by an aggregate of 32-4, and I think Palace can inflict another heavy defeat in midweek.
We'll back PALACE -1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 11/10.
By taking the -1.0 Asian Handicap we get a winner should Palace win by two or more goals, and we get our money back should they win by just one goal. Of the nine visitors to St. Mary's who sit 14th and above, seven have covered this handicap and two have seen money back.
Palace have been performing at top four level over the last 16 league games, collecting 31 points in that time while accumulating the third most expected points. They've ranked third for xGA per game (1.06) and fourth for xGF per game (1.86), and the Eagles have been red-hot away from home of late, winning six straight, covering the -1.0 handicap in all six.
Score prediction: Southampton 0-3 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Liverpool vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/3 | Draw 19/5 | Away 15/2
Liverpool went into the International break on a low, losing the Carabao Cup final to Newcastle just days after being knocked out the Champions League by PSG. Fortunately they have a comfortable lead at the top of the Premier League table.
It looks all but over, but injuries are mounting and prior to the break the Reds didn't look like themselves, meaning there is a tiny, tiny bit of hope we may see a title race yet. I'm not expecting that at all, mind, but failure to win this Merseyside derby on Wednesday will have everyone wondering.
Everton won't be an easy test. David Moyes takes the Toffees to Anfield on a nine game unbeaten run in the Premier League, a run that includes a dramatic 2-2 draw against the Reds at Goodison Park.
I mentioned injuries for Liverpool, and they could prove problematic and provide some interesting betting angles. The first is their right-back conundrum. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Bradley are both out, meaning JARELL QUANSAH will deputise again, and when he has played at full-back this season, fouls have followed.
He has started just two games at right-back but committed two fouls on both occasions, while in a 48 minute substitute appearance against PSG he also committed two fouls. A repeat in this game is 23/10, which looks a large price for 2+ FOULS.
Granted, Everton aren't as dynamic in attack as some sides, but they are much more front foot under Moyes, and the magnitude of the game could play into things, as well as Quansah's own rashness.
Another injury doubt for Liverpool is Ryan Gravenberch, meaning we could see Alexis Mac Allister start deeper for CURTIS JONES to be given the nod, making his price TO BE CARDED worth chancing.
That's because of what happened after the final whistle of the meeting between these sides earlier in the season in the final Merseyside derby at Goodison. Everton scored a late, late equaliser and Toffees midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure went and celebrated in front of the Liverpool fans, after which local boy Jones gave him a piece of his mind and started a melé.
Jones had already been booked in the game, but both players were sent off following the scuffle, and that fiery encounter could carry over to this game, so he's worth chancing for another card at 11/2, especially with Sam Barrott being the man in the middle. He's averaged 4.4 cards per game this season.
The Jones-Doucoure card double is 14/1 (bet365) for those wanting a nibble on that. Let's hope he starts.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Tuesday's tips - odds correct at 1240 BST (31/03/25)
Wednesday's 19:45 tips - odds correct at 1520 BST (31/03/25)
Wednesday's 20:00 tips - odds correct at 2105 BST (31/03/25)
Thursday's tips - odds correct at 0915 BST (01/04/25)
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