Tony McFadden outlines the Timeform view on the Randox Grand National and highlights which horses have the best chance at the weights.
It was a fantastic Cheltenham Festival for trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero. Not only did their only runner at this year's meeting, Jagwar, land the Plate, but the Grand National claims of their first Cheltenham Festival winner Iroko (Timeform weight-adjusted rating 183p) were given a couple of boosts.
Things didn't go smoothly for Iroko, the 2023 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle winner, during his first campaign over fences last term as he met with a setback after winning on his chasing debut at Warwick in November and it was a rush to get him back in time for the Festival. He understandably looked rusty when thrown into the deep end in the Grade 1 Turners Novices' Chase, plugging on into fifth, but he showed he wasn't out of place at that level when runner-up in the Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree.
It looked like a good effort at the time to split Inothewayurthinkin, an easy winner of the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, and Heart Wood, a wide-margin winner of a valuable handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. But that form looks even stronger now following the latest Cheltenham Festival where Inothewayurthinkin won the Gold Cup and Heart Wood was runner-up in the Ryanair Chase.
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Unlike that pair, Iroko hasn't shown much-improved this season, but he has shaped with promise on all three completed starts and posted a very smart effort when chasing home a potentially top-class chaser in Grey Dawning at Kelso last month. That encouraging performance at Kelso and his runner-up effort at Aintree last season suggest that Iroko is potentially well treated from a BHA mark of 152 and he will top Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National if, as expected, Midlands National winner Mr Vango (184) fails to make the cut.
In addition to being well treated on form, Iroko remains with untapped potential after only seven starts over fences and is the only runner in the line-up with the Timeform 'p' to denote he's a likely improver. As with many in the field, stamina is an unknown as he steps markedly up in trip, but he's seen things out well on his two starts at around three miles over fences which offers encouragement he can cope with this much stiffer test.
Iroko will form part of a strong team for owner JP McManus which includes last year's seven-and-a-half-length winner I Am Maximus (176). I Am Maximus hasn't always been a fluent jumper and in years gone by perhaps may have struggled over the Aintree fences, but the modifications mean the course is no longer such a daunting test and he was able to stamp his class on a race in which, remarkably, there were no fallers and only four who unseated their riders.
On Timeform ratings, I Am Maximus' performance was right up there with the best by a Grand National winner this century, so the BHA handicapper has unsurprisingly had a say and he'll be carrying top weight off an 8 lb higher mark this time around. That will make life more difficult, as might a less-than-ideal preparation after a small setback forced him to miss the Bobbyjo Chase that he had won so impressively last year. The fact he's trained by Willie Mullins perhaps reduces the concern about the impact of that missed prep run, but you are having to take on trust that he's in the same sort of form as last year.
One of McManus' team very much arriving in form is Perceval Legallois (181). He has taken a while to get his act together over fences, occasionally held back by sloppy jumping, but he delivered the sort of performance he had long since looked capable of in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That big-field affair is often one of the most competitive in the calendar but Perceval Legallois was well on top at the finish, storming to a seven-length success despite being only fourth jumping the final fence (replay below). He's understandably been hit with a significant rise in the weights but even an 11 lb higher mark may not anchor him based on how dominant he was at Leopardstown, especially as his strength in the finish bodes well for his prospects of seeing out this much longer trip. He confirmed he's very much at the top of his game by winning a valuable handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival when last seen.
Perceval Legallois, who represents the connections of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin, is not the only horse trained by Gavin Cromwell who takes high rank on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings. Stumptown (182) didn't look obviously well treated following the initial release of the weights, but he has stronger claims now following a career-best effort in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham which saw him win by seven lengths off the same mark he will compete from in the Grand National.
The Cross Country has proved a significant Grand National pointer in recent years. Tiger Roll won both races in 2018 and 2019, while Delta Work, the 2022 and 2023 Cross Country winner, was third in the 2022 Grand National and runner-up last year. Galvin was runner-up in the 2023 Cross Country Chase and fourth in last year's Grand National.
Stamina shouldn't be an issue for Stumptown, who was remarkably strong after the final obstacle in the Cross Country to pull seven lengths clear up the run-in, but he does need to prove that he can replicate the improved form he has shown in that discipline in a much more competitive and classier environment. He was beaten from a BHA mark of 147 at Cheltenham last April the last time he contested a conventional handicap chase.
Also representing Cromwell is Vanillier (178), the 2023 Grand National runner-up who was third in last month's Cross Country Chase and may have given his stablemate plenty to think about had he not almost taken the wrong course and lost ground early in the contest. That showed there's still plenty of spark left in Vanillier, and he is able to run off the same mark as when runner-up in 2023, but he's a ten-year-old now and the suspicion is that he may have already had his best chance of winning the Grand National.
You have to go back to Pineau de Re in 2014 to find the last time a horse aged older than nine won the Grand National - in what is probably a reflection of the changing nature of the race - but Hewick (179) looks to hold solid claims.
The ten-year-old is able to run off a mark 1 lb lower than when unseating his rider at the final fence when looking the likely winner of the 2022 Kerry National. He's enjoyed some fine days in graded company since then, most notably when finishing with a flourish to win the King George VI Chase at Kempton last season on the only previous occasion he was ridden by Gavin Sheehan, and his runner-up effort in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in November demonstrated that he retains plenty of ability.
He showed his wellbeing when making the most of a good opportunity in a conditions hurdle at Thurles last month that should set him up nicely for a belated first tilt at the Grand National, and he appeals as one that is likely to take to the course given he's demonstrated his versatility over different obstacles in races like the American Grand National and French Champion Hurdle. There's a lot to like about his chance, but his price has dried up in recent weeks and he doesn't have the untapped potential of an Iroko or Perceval Legallois.
Last season's Irish Grand National winner Intense Raffles (179+) is another fairly prominent on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings after running so well in the Bobbyjo Chase following the release of the weights. He hadn't shown much in two starts over hurdles this season but proved a different proposition back over fences in the Bobbyjo where he made high-class Thyestes winner Nick Rockett (176) dig very deep to prevail. Intense Raffles was conceding 3 lb to the winner last time but will be in receipt of 12 lb here, so he is very much the one to take out of the Bobbyjo, for all fourth-placed Minella Cocooner (173) has been heavily supported in recent days and did well in major staying handicaps last spring by finishing third in the Irish National before winning the Bet365 Gold Cup.
That Bobbyjo effort was Intense Raffles' first defeat over fences since joining Tom Gibney, and he already has a hugely valuable staying handicap chase to his name, so his credentials are difficult to knock. However, his form has come on soft or heavy ground, so quicker conditions would pose a different question and he'll be taking on classier rivals than previously.
Of those at bigger prices, Hyland (180) shows up well on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings based on the form he showed when runner-up in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton. That form has not been fully tested as the two-and-a-half-length winner The Jukebox Man subsequently met with an injury and was ruled out for the rest of the campaign, but third-placed Masaccio, who was 16 lengths behind Hyland, ran well to finish placed in a couple of competitive handicaps, including the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. Hyland himself ran well on his only subsequent outing when runner-up in the valuable Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase back at Kempton.
He's bidding to give Nicky Henderson a first winner in the Grand National and aiming to become the third novice winner of the last decade following Rule The World and Noble Yeats.
Mr Vango has enjoyed a fantastic season and won all three starts this term, comprising the London National, Peter Marsh and Midlands National. Based on his Midlands National effort he would top Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings if getting a run, though that looks unlikely and he probably needs softer ground in any case.
A couple worth a positive mention at bigger prices are Beauport (176+) and Grangeclare West (177). Last season's Midlands National winner Beauport proved better than ever when bolting up in a handicap chase on his return at Ascot in November and has finished placed in a couple of graded hurdles subsequently, while Grangeclare West has a rather patchy profile and hardly had the ideal prep by failing to beat a rival in the Webster Cup, but prior to that he had split Galopin des Champs and Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup so certainly has a touch of class.
That touch of class is looking increasingly important in modern-day Nationals and it is Iroko, whose Grade 1 novice chase form has been so well advertised, who is perhaps the strongest contender.
Ten highest-rated Grand National runners
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings:
184 Mr Vango
183p Iroko
182 Stumptown
181 Perceval Legallois
180 Hyland
179+ Intense Raffles
179 Hewick
178 Threeunderthrufive
178 Vanillier
178 Three Card Brag
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