Nick Hext has a 12/5 tip for Arsenal's trip to Southampton in the Premier League on Wednesday night.
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Southampton v Arsenal (1945 BST)
Arsenal’s last-gasp bid to snaffle their traditional top-four finish in the Premier League continues with what appears to be their toughest remaining game at Southampton on Wednesday night.
A trip to Stoke, who have only beaten Hull in their last nine outings, and home games against already-relegated Sunderland and a tiring Everton complete the campaign so a three-point haul at St Mary’s would be a real warning to the sides above the Gunners.
Arsenal are six points behind fourth-placed Manchester City with a game in hand and seven points away from Liverpool in third, with the advantage of a couple of games to make up on the Reds.
An inferior goal difference is a problem for the Gunners in this chase but winning all four of their remaining matches would cut that gap, especially to Liverpool who are only five goals better off.
The Emirates Stadium outfit have threatened to increase the heat on their rivals for much of 2017 but failing to win back-to-back games since the end of January easily illustrates their lack of consistency.
Defeats have been suffered at West Brom and Crystal Palace during the last couple of months so it’s hard to find the enthusiasm to show complete faith in Arsene Wenger’s side.
Arsenal fans are still failing to show full support for Wenger with his famous new contract remaining unsigned but overcoming the odds to finish in the top four and winning the FA Cup would have to tip the balance back in the Frenchman’s favour, for a few months at least.
I fancy the Gunners to just about get the victory at St Mary’s, a similarly gritty display to the 1-0 win at home to Leicester a couple of weeks ago will be required.
Southampton, however, are sure to make it tight as their defence continues to be tough to breach despite the continuing absence of Virgil van Dijk.
The Saints have drawn 0-0 in both of their previous contests, at Liverpool on Sunday and against Hull in their last home game, and they’ve kept clean sheets in four of their last seven outings.
Chelsea and Manchester City managed to score four and three goals respectively against Claude Puel’s men during April but I reckon Arsenal’s narrow 3-4-2-1 formation could help lead to a more intriguing tactical tussle.
The Gunners have also only managed to beat West Ham, Lincoln and Sutton (the latter two clubs from the fifth tier of English football) by more than one goal during their last 14 matches.
It’s going to be close and I’m going to make the half-time score to be 0-0 at 12/5 my best bet despite a temptation to back Arsenal to end their wait for back-to-back victories by winning by one goal at 3/1.
The first half has ended goalless in each of Arsenal’s last four matches and there has only been a goal in the opening 45 minutes during one of Southampton’s previous four outings.
It all points to an intriguing contest.
Prediction: Southampton 0-1 Arsenal
Opta facts:
o Southampton are looking to win three consecutive home league matches against Arsenal for the first time since 1985.
o Arsenal are winless in their five previous away visits to St Mary’s in the Premier League, last winning there in December 2003 (D3 L2).
o Arsene Wenger has won only 25% of his Premier League games at St Mary’s (two of eight) as opposed to 60% at the Dell (three of five).
o However, the Gunners did beat Southampton 5-0 away in the fourth round of the FA Cup this season. Theo Walcott scored a hat-trick in that match, while Danny Welbeck got the other two.
o Shane Long scored twice the last time Southampton hosted Arsenal in the Premier League, a 4-0 rout on Boxing Day 2015.
o Arsene Wenger’s side have lost five of their last six away Premier League games – the same number they’d lost in their previous 27 on the road in the competition.
o Southampton have failed to score in three of their last four home Premier League, the exception being a 3-1 win over Crystal Palace.
o Manolo Gabbiadini scored four goals in his first three Premier League appearances (248 mins), but since then he’s failed to score and attempted just one shot on target in 306 Premier League minutes (five apps).
Posted at 1305 BST on 09/05/17.
