- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 216.9pts | Returned 217.49pts | P/L +0.59pts | ROI 0.2%
Football betting tips: EFL
Monday 20:00
1pt Jobe Bellingham to be carded in Middlesbrough vs Sunderland at 7/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Jobe Bellingham and Rav van den Berg to be carded at 22/1 (bet365)
Middlesbrough vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
- TV: ITV4
- Home 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 19/10
JOBE BELLINGHAM has picked up eight cards this season, with all bar one of them (the 2-2 draw at home to Leeds) coming away from home.
On Monday, Sunderland play rivals Middlesbrough at the Riverside so it makes sense to take Bellingham’s price TO BE CARDED.
Referee Stephen Martin helps the cause.
He has dished out 4.21 cards per game in the Championship this season, five or more cards in 35% of the 20 games he has taken charge of in all competitions and 14 across the two Boro games he has overseen.
- CLICK HERE to back Bellingham to be shown a card with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Bellingham and Van den Berg to be shown a card with Sky Bet
The Tees-Wear derby has thrown up 36 cards across the last six head-to-heads, four of which have been reds, so a CARD DOUBLE is also getting touted.
Wilson Isidor rarely gives centre-backs a minute's peace - in nine of his last 10 appearances at least one central defender has been carded.
RAV VAN DEN BERG looks the most likely of the hosts centre backs, he has a cards per 90 average of 0.16.
Player card trixie
As I am tipping three player cards all across the same division on Friday, Saturday and Monday it seems logical to combine them in a trixie. In total it will be half a point stages as four different bets so if £10 = 1pt it will be £1.25 x4 across the four different combinations.
- Makhtar Gueye (Blackburn vs Preston)
- Jordan Clark (Sheffield Wednesday vs Luton)
- Jobe Bellingham (Middlesbrough vs Sunderland)
Already advised
Friday 20:00
1pt Makhtar Gueye to be carded in Blackburn vs Preston at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Makhtar Gueye to be sent off at 66/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Jordan Clark to be carded in Sheffield Wednesday vs Luton at 7/2 (William Hill)
Sunday 14:00
2pts Crystal Palace Asian handicap (+0.5) vs Manchester United at 3/4 (bet365)
1pt Crystal Palace double chance and Dean Henderson to be carded at 11/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Crystal Palace to win and Dean Henderson to be carded at 25/1 (bet365)
Sunday 16:30
0.5pt Erling Haaland to be sent off at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt Gabriel Magalhaes to be sent off 50/1 (General)
0.5pt Haaland and Gabriel to be sent off at 2500/1 (Boylesports)
Player card trixie
0.5pt (total stake) Gueye (4/1), Clark (11/4) and Jobe Bellingham (7/2) to be carded at 83/1 (bet365)
We’ve got our heads back above water, at last.
Jayden Bogle’s card last Monday meant the column finished +11pts up and put us marginally back in profit for the season.
The ante-Champions League stance was vindicated and a trademark result combined with the keeper card got up thanks to Jordan Pickford and his Everton side.
I really wanna make it three weeks in profit for the column this weekend. That’s the trumpeting over.
I’ve returned to the sweet, sweet English Football League for these angles. More familiar ground.
We’ve got the usual punts beginning in Lancashire on Friday night and ending with Monday’s Wear-Tees derby.
I’m obliged to tell you I am away next week, there won’t be a column (lucky you) so you’ll have to get your losing longshots from elsewhere.
Blackburn vs Preston
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 21/20 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/5
The Championship’s weekend slate starts at Edwood Park where a traditionally card crazed fixture is governed by a card happy referee.
You know where I am going with this.
The last time Blackburn and Preston squared off there were nine yellows and two red cards, meanwhile North End top the charts for ill-discipline this season (80 yellows and four reds) while Blackburn rank fourth (69 yellows and two reds).
Referee Josh Smith has dished out 81 cards in 18 second tier appearances this term (4.5 per game), flashing at least five in a third of those fixtures.
To the player card market it is.
Blackburn's MAKHTAR GUEYE TO BE CARDED is the best bet.
He has seven cards to his name this season, with his per 90 average a whopping 0.51. One of his cards was a red, so with this fixture having a history of getting spiky, we may as well throw A RED CARD in the staking plan at 66/1 just in case.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/5
JORDAN CLARK has notched up eight yellow cards this season, seven have come on the road and this weekend relegation threatened Luton head to Hillsborough to take on Sheffield Wednesday.
Ben Toner is the referee, he has averaged 5.2 cards per game in the Championship this season, meaning at the prices available, Clark has to be backed TO BE CARDED.
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 12/5
Ruben Amorim hasn’t minced his words on the size of the job he has on his hands at Old Trafford.
In the Premier League, he has lost six times and won four of the 12 games he has overseen, losing four of six on home soil.
Brighton, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest have all turned the Red Devils over on their own patch, scoring 11 goals in the process. Man Utd’s only wins were against Southampton and Everton and arguably neither were warranted.
CRYSTAL PALACE head to the Theatre of Dreams on Sunday and I fancy them to get a result.
Backing the Eagles with the ASIAN HANDICAP (+0.5) is the main play. It is the same as taking them double chance but at slightly bigger odds on this occasion.
Siding with the visitors obviously opens up the keeper card avenues and the referee suits.
In 10 Premier League appearances, John Brooks has carded two keepers for time wasting and seven keepers across his last 25 league and cup appearances. This includes Palace’s 1-1 draw with Brighton last season.
We also have the added bonus of DEAN HENDERSON returning to his boyhood club.
Combining him with Palace TO WIN and Palace WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is worth doing.
Arsenal vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/5
Gabriel sends a warning to their Premier League title rivals that they will be "waiting for them" in the return fixture 👀🍿 pic.twitter.com/GtI7TgnZC7
— Sky Sports (@SkySports) September 24, 2024
Don’t stay humble, have a bit of a rumble. I’m talking to you ERLING HAALAND and GABRIEL MAGALHAES.
Arsenal’s centre back has been waiting for revenge after what happened in the reverse where the pair had quite a ruckus at the Etihad.
It was just delightfully petty antics from both of them, Jake’s covering it in his column but I doubt he’ll be covering each of the players TO BE SENT OFF as singles and as a double just in case.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (31/01/25)
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