- Jake's Predictions: Staked 311.75pts | Returned 342.86pts | P/L +31.11pts | ROI 10%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Gabriel to be carded in Arsenal vs Man City (16:30) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Erling Haaland to be carded in Arsenal vs Man City (16:30) at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Boylesports)
0.5pt Gabriel and Haaland both to be carded at 18/1 (bet365)
Arsenal vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/5
A good old fashioned rivalry has developed between Arsenal and Manchester City. The pair have duked it out for the last few titles and there has been no love lost between the pair. Recent head-to-heads have been feisty, and the last meeting boiled over in a big way.
It started from the kick-off, when Kai Havertz ran through Rodri, and it ended with a late John Stones equaliser, with ensuing scenes featuring Erling Haaland throwing the ball at Gabriel's head, the big Norwegian shouting at then 17-year-old Myles Lewis-Skelly "who the fuck are you", the City striker squaring up to Gabriel Jesus before screaming at Mikel Arteta and his players - "stay humble, eh".
"Stay humble eh" 🔥
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 23, 2024
Listen to Erling Haaland's comments to Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta at full-time following the 2-2 draw 🚨 pic.twitter.com/sXVYrK7hw9
Haaland went up the shithouse rankings after that match, and will be ready to do battle against the Gunners again no doubt. Meanwhile, his opponent, in more than one sense of the word, Gabriel came out after the game - and after realising Haaland had donked the ball on his head after the equaliser - and said this; "We are waiting for them at our ground".
Things could get really ugly then off the back of that last meeting, and I'm here for it. We need a rivalry. We need a bit of needle, or a lot, as it seems in this case.
The stakes of the game could barely be higher too, with Arsenal desperately trying to hang on the coattails of leaders Liverpool, while Manchester City need points to help their top four aspirations. It feels as though this really is must not lose for the Gunners, and you just know there's nothing City would want more than put a huge nail in their hosts title coffin.
Joe has covered the match in detail in his preview, and has made a strong case for cards which I'm fully on board with, and given the chaos at the Etihad, and the growing feud between ERLING HAALAND and GABRIEL, I think we simply have to back the pair TO BE CARDED, as well as backing the DOUBLE.
- CLICK HERE to back Erling Haaland to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Gabriel to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Erling Haaland and Gabriel to be carded with Sky Bet
It may seem more of a narrative punt rather than data based, but sometimes it is that straight forward. Both are physical players so both will be fully committing into every challenge, and no doubt Gabriel in particular will want to leave one on the bloke who gave it the big'un earlier in the season. An early, yellow card worthy, flattening challenge would receive a huge cheer and ovation from the whole stadium.
Given Haaland's emergence as a real shithouser, he'll relish being the pantomime villain, and won't lie down lightly. I could see such a scenario occurring; Gabriel absolutely and blatantly crunches Haaland, stands over him giving it the finger point and shouting Haaland's now famed "stay humble eh" at the Norwegian, after which the City striker jumps up shoves Gabriel and squares up to him. Yellow card each, thanks very much, 18/1 winner. Easy as that.
Obviously that's highly speculative of me, but I'm just putting it out there that I can see these two drag each other into the book, with neither wanting to be outdone or out-masculined (if thats a term) in what will be a mano a mano contest for the full 90. It's highly unlikely either will be subbed.
The referee is Peter Bankes and he's averaged 4.6 cards per game showing he won't let much go unpunished. So all in all, get your popcorn ready and get on the edge of your seat every time the ball goes up to Haaland.
They've talked the talk, now we need them to walk the walk.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 35
- Bournemouth 2-1 Liverpool
- Newcastle 2-1 Fulham
- Everton 2-0 Leicester
- Wolves 2-1 Aston Villa
- Brentford 3-2 Tottenham
- Arsenal 2-2 Manchester City
Already advised
Saturday 12:30
1pt Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded in Forest vs Brighton at 18/5 (BetVictor)
1pt Carlos Baleba to be carded in Forest vs Brighton at 43/20 (Unibet)
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Bournemouth 12+ total shots vs Liverpool at 20/21 (BoyleSports)
1.5pts Jesper Lindstrom 3+ tackles in Everton vs Leicester at 13/8 (William Hill)
0.5pt Jesper Lindstrom 4+ tackles in Everton vs Leicester at 19/5 (William Hill)
1pt Julio Enciso to be carded in Ipswich vs Southampton at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt A Sending off in Ipswich vs Southampton at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Timothy Castagne 3+ tackles in Newcastle vs Fulham at 9/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Saturday 17:30
2pts 50+ booking points in Wolves vs Aston Villa at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Tommy Doyle to be carded in Wolves vs Aston Villa at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Wolves to beat Aston Villa at 5/2 (Unibet, Betfred)
Sunday
1.5pts Yoane Wissa to score anytime in Brentford vs Spurs (14:00) at 8/5 (bet365)
It was another profitable weekend last time out, with some nice angles cashing. Everton's Jesper Lindstrom was kept very busy and eased past his required tackle total against Brighton, and Southampton's defeat to Newcastle delivered two winners for the column.
Sunday's late games saw the Vladamir Coufal theory stand up as he was fouled twice, while Alex Iwobi registered a shot on target after five minutes for probably the fastest winner of the season for us.
None of the other bets went close so no complaints that we didn't finish with more profit this week.
Onto the upcoming matches and it is an admittedly busy staking plan but I think there is so much value to be had this weekend that I simply couldn't leave anything out. Fingers crossed the good run continues.
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 9/5
Nottingham Forest were well and truly pumped last weekend. A real 'back down to earth' result at the hands of Bournemouth, and as daft as it sounds, they may be better for it. A nice opportunity to reset and stay grounded.
Another tough game awaits, and in the reverse fixture with Brighton there was no love lost. The referee on that day Rob Jones flashed nine cards including a red, and sent both managers off after a melee.
Let's hope that continues and this game boils over too, as contrary to what commentators usually say - "no one wants to see these unsavoury scenes" - I speak for 99% of football fans when I say, we absolutely do. Bring back the squaring up, the feistiness, the shoving. Modern football is sometimes missing that bit of needle.
Anyway, I'm returning to an old favourite of the column for this game, MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE, who just so happened to be the man sent off in the reverse and cause the ensuing chaos. He looks a big price at 7/2 TO BE CARDED.
The English playmaker has been carded in six of 19 starts this season, five yellows and a red, so before the added context, the 7/2 looks large.
Referee Simon Hooper has been good for cards all season, consistent unlike some in averaging 4.6 cards per game, and could be kept busy here.
As always with Gibbs-White, we'll also take his opposite number TO BE CARDED - this weekend that's CARLOS BALEBA.
The Cameroonian may be the next £100m midfielder to leave Brighton, but he doesn't half leave one on his opponents. Strong in the tackle and extremely cynical with his fouls, it's no surprise Baleba has been carded in six of 20 appearances.
Interestingly, he's been booked in four of his last nine league games, three of his last five since the final game of December, and he was also booked in the reverse, struggling to deal with the Forest midfield.
Of the 19 starts Gibbs-White has made this season, the deepest opposing midfielder has been booked in 15 of them. This weekend that will be Baleba.
The double is at 12/1 for those interested, but for staking purposes that won't feature in my plan.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 18/5 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/13
Bournemouth are absolutely flying at the moment and welcome league-leading Liverpool on the back of back-to-back thrashings of European football chasers Newcastle (4-1) and Nottingham Forest (5-0).
They are on a real tear under Andoni Iraola. The Cherries are unbeaten in 11 league games, winning seven of those, and at home this season they have already beaten Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham, so it really wouldn't be a surprise were they to beat the Reds.
The reverse game at Anfield was a 3-0 win for Arne Slot's men but was far from straightforward, and the stat that stood out from the game was that Bournemouth took 19 shots. Looking closer at the data, that could well be another angle to attack, and prices about home shots look well worth backing.
We'll put big stakes on BOURNEMOUTH 12+ TOTAL SHOTS on Saturday.
At 20/21, it should be backed confidently, with the Cherries covering the 12+ line in each and every one of their home league games this season. Iraola's men are averaging 17.6 shots per game at the Vitality, so I wouldn't put anyone off taking the higher lines, with 14+ looking solid value at 15/8 - they've covered 14+ in nine of their 11, though failed against both Arsenal and Man City.
Liverpool have been fairly tight defensively in terms of shots conceded away from home, but against Newcastle, a team nearly as chaotic as Bournemouth, they conceded 17 shots, while the aforementioned head-to-head is another indicator that the Cherries' you-attack-we-attack style will lead to plenty of shots at both ends.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Everton vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/2
JESPER LINDSTROM secured us a good profit last weekend in the tackles market and I think it's well worth going back in on the Dane to register another 3+ TACKLES.
He made four last weekend at Brighton in just over an hour, and made five in 69 minutes against Spurs the game prior. Overall this season he's averaging an impressive 3.6 tackles per 90, so we just need him to continue at that rate here against a Leicester team who do draw opponents into a lot of duels.
He's clearly thriving in David Moyes' more aggressive, in-your-face system given his last two performances, and should give us a run for our money at 13/8.
I'll also chance 4+ TACKLES too at 19/5, as Leicester's opponents have racked up high tackle counts down the opposition right side of late, most for full-backs, with 4+ landing in three of the Foxes last four. As mentioned in last week's column, Lindstrom tucks right in to help his full back as well as pressing high.
That's shown by the fact that over half of his tackles this season have been made in Everton's defensive third, with seven of those in the last two games alone.
Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Ipswich vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/5
This is a big game for both sides. For Ipswich, it's a chance to get an important win. For Southampton, it's the chance to get rare points.
Both sides are not very good, hence why they are the current bottom two, so I'll be swerving the main markets and focusing on JULIO ENCISO, with the Brighton loanee surely set to start here.
Annoyingly, no firms have priced his shot lines! It's infuriating as the Paraguayan in limited minutes over the last two seasons has taken 48 shots, totalling out at an average of 5.59 per 90. He is a shoot-on-sight merchant.
Fortunately, he's also a loose cannon. He presses high and has the trademark South American feistiness. Encisco has picked up three cards in that same span at an average of 0.35, so the 6/1 price available for him TO BE CARDED is too big.
I expected closer to 7/2 given the fact he was booked in an 11 minute cameo last time out, the importance of the game, and the referee appointment. You could argue this is Ipswich's most important game of the season to date, almost must win, so they will be pulling out all the stops, while the man in the middle is Michael Oliver.
Oliver is averaging 5.04 cards per game across all competitions this term, and is fresh off a double red card game that was filled with controversy. That could well play out again here and I'll back A RED CARD IN THE MATCH.
Not only is the man in the middle obliging with both yellow and red cards - he's flashed five reds in all comps this term - but we have two of the three most ill-disciplined teams on display.
Southampton have collected 66 yellows and three reds this season, with Ipswich not far behind at 60 and two. Add the fact that across five meetings between the cut adrift bottom four this season there have been 33 yellows and three reds, and the 4/1 for a sending off starts to look even bigger.
The previous meeting of these two sides saw eight yellows, and a similarly high card count can be expected here, bringing the red card right into play. Ipswich's only home game against fellow strugglers this season delivered seven yellows and a red versus Leicester, while this exact fixture in the Championship last season, with stakes high as both teams were battling it out for automatic promotion, also saw a red card brandished.
Score prediction: Ipswich 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Newcastle vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 18/5
I don't know what to make of Fulham. They show glimpses of quality, then make Manchester United look competent in a 1-0 defeat. Play like that here and Newcastle should win comfortably.
However, the hosts are a little too short, especially given the Cottagers have travelled well this season, taking points off Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest. One thing I am sure of is Anthony Gordon being a problem for Fulham right-back TIMOTHY CASTAGNE.
The Belgian is a very clean player, averaging just 0.56 per 90, but he does make plenty of tackles, and it's that market that provides us with value, so we'll take the 9/5 about him making 3+ TACKLES.
Full-backs playing in a back four against Gordon have been tackle-heavy of late. In the last nine such games, the winger's direct opponent has made 3+ tackles on seven occasions, with the average across the span being 2.89.
Given Castagne's record this season has him posting 2.43 tackles per 90, and he's landed the 3+ tackle bounty in three of his last four outings, he should give us a run for our money.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Wolves vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 23/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 21/20
Wolves are winless in four Premier League games, a run that has dropped them into the bottom three, but this looks a cracking opportunity to get back on the winning train.
Aston Villa are depleted, tired and head to Molineux on the back of a midweek Champions League match, and those three things are enough to side against Unai Emery's men.
Villa have only one fit centre-back - Ezri Konsa - with Pau Torres and Tyrone Mings injured and the perplexing recent sale of Diego Carlos, meaning Boubacar Kamar will likely play at the back again here, which in turn leaves them light in midfield due to injuries to Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley.
The sale of Jhon Duran complicates things further, with no explosive striking option to rotate with Ollie Watkins, meaning all in all, they are in a bit of a mess.
I've banged the drum around how poor Villa have been following a midweek match of any kind, and their record now reads two wins, five draws and 10 defeats. It's a simply shocking return and highlights how such a game-specific tactician, Emery, struggles to juggle so many in quick succession.
It's also worth noting that both of Villa's wins after a midweek game at home, with one being after their first Champions League match and against Wolves very early in the season when everyone was still fit and fresh. The other came against league whipping boys Southampton.
I think there is enough reason to get against the visitors here, especially given all of their four straight losses have come against sides in the top six, with performances against Chelsea and Arsenal both admirable. They did win two and draw the other of their three games prior.
WOLVES TO WIN is worth a small bet in this one given Villa's issues, and the fact the Old Gold have had a full week off to prepare.
Villa's away form has been poor of late, winning just two and losing seven of their last 10 in all competitions, so surely there is no better time for Wolves to play them.
I'll also take a punt on a card-laden game given the pair's recent history. Given the lack of recent Villa-Birmingham or Wolves-West Brom derby matches, these two have played recent encounters in a semi-derby/rivalry, with cards flowing.
The last four head-to-heads have seen 9-7-6-6 cards shown, and since both have been in the top flight, the 11 head-to-heads have averaged 5.9 cards. So that, combined with both clubs card records this season (Wolves games averaging 4.7 cards, Villa's 4.9) and a favourable referee appointment in Andy Madley (4.4 cards per game), makes the 5/6 about 50+ BOOKING POINTS appeal.
This bet has landed in eight of the last 11 head-to-heads, in eight of Madley's 10 league games this season, in 13 of Villa's 23 this term and in 15 of Wolves' 23.
With cards fancied, it'd be rude not to dip into the player card markets, where TOMMY DOYLE is an appealing 6/1 TO BE CARDED.
Wolves are without the suspended Joao Gomes and the sidelined Mario Lemina (due to transfer speculation), so Doyle should start in the heart of midfield. His card record overall isn't great on the face of it but when isolating just the games he has started this season it makes the 6/1 start to look very big.
He's started only five matches and been booked in two of them, and Saturday's direct opponent will be the illusive Morgan Rogers, a tough match-up for any midfielder, so I'll chance Doyle to be one of at least (hopefully) five players to have their names taken - especially with him the joint-least likely player to be carded in this game according to the bookies.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Brentford vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 21/20 | Draw 29/10 | Away 2/1
Brentford are nearly even-money to beat Tottenham this weekend, which just puts it into perspective how bad things are for Spurs. They are winless in seven league games, losing six of those, so the price about the Bees is understandable.
Thomas Frank's men have won seven of 12 home games and while they are winless in their last four at the Gtech, losing three, all have come against sides in the top four.
These are much calmer waters so I wouldn't put anyone off backing the hosts, with a home win combined with both teams scoring looking a solid bet at 2/1.
With goals on the cards though - Brentford home games average 4.3 - I'll go back to the well with YOANE WISSA TO SCORE ANYTIME, as I still think there is juice in his price of 8/5.
He's scored in seven of his 10 home league games, while he is the Bees' biggest goal threat, averaging 0.59 xG per 90.
That figure rises to a whopping 0.75 per 90 when playing at home and he's absolutely loving playing in front of his own fans.
Only Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Bournemouth and Arsenal have posted a better attacking process at home than the Bees, who should relish playing against this depleted and tired Tottenham who will surely have one eye on a huge Carabao Cup semi-final second leg just four days after this.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home evs | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/5
Are Manchester United turning a corner? They have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, have held Liverpool, and knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup. All of a sudden their form has started to look solid.
They were good in midweek, though that was against a really really poor FCSB side, but they have started to show a bit of solidity at the back.
That has me a little worried about opposing them, but if you were wanting to, taking Jimmy's angle of Palace or draw and Dean Henderson to be carded looks a fun way of doing so.
No bet for me here though.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Saturday's tips - Odds correct at 1315 GMT (31/01/25)
Sunday's 2pm tips - Odds correct at 1510 GMT (31/01/25)
Sunday's 4.30pm tips - Odds correct at 1645 GMT (31/01/25)
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