- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 245.65pts | Returned 262.74 | P/L +17.09pts | ROI 7%
Football betting tips:
Saturday 12:15
2pts Preston to qualify vs Burnley at 13/10 (General)
Saturday 15:00
2pts Under 4.5 cards in Bournemouth vs Wolves at 5/6 (bet365)
1pt Under 2.5 cards in Bournemouth vs Wolves at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Under 1.5 cards in Bournemouth vs Wolves at 10/1 (bet365)
0.25pts No cards in Bournemouth vs Wolves at 28/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Ronnie Edwards 1+ shots in QPR vs Sheffield United at 11/10 (bet365)
0.5pt Ronnie Edwards 2+ shots in QPR vs Sheffield United at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Ronnie Edwards to score anytime in QPR vs Sheffield United at 28/1 (Sky Bet)
Back to losing ways last weekend.
Tipping Eintracht Frankfurt on the handicap and then watching them lose 4-0 at Bayern Munich was probably the low point. Bolton coming from behind to beat Leyton Orient to scupper the draw no bet also hurt.
Oh, I also had a front row seat to the Leeds late show at Bramall Lane and the referee couldn’t even offer me consolation with a cheap Jayden Bogle or Harry Clarke card. Booo.
Annoyingly I left a few winners out of the staking plan thinking less is more, maybe more is actually more.
Cry me a river. You live and you learn.
Onto this weekend and there’s no Premier League fixtures but we have got a slightly reduced EFL slate and a smattering of FA Cup fifth round clashes to dip into.
Preston vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 12:15 GMT, Saturday
- TV: BBC iPlayer
- Home 11/4 | Draw 2/1 | Away 11/10
How did you get in the fifth round of the FA Cup, Burnley?
They must have fallen (a throwback to a Little Britain sketch there).
Scott Parker usually does his best to kibosh his side's chances in domestic cup competitions (in my opinion) by rotating heavily and what not.
But after sweeping Reading and Southampton aside the Clarets head to Deepdale on Saturday at a relatively advanced stage of the competition.
This is a Lancashire derby and while local bragging rights may be on the line, I don’t think a cup run is high on Parker’s priority list.
After Leeds' late turnaround at Bramall Lane on Monday, the Whites have moved five points clear at the top of the Championship and moved into 1/12 to win the title.
It means Burnley are within two points of the automatic spots and still have Sheffield United to play at Turf Moor on Easter Monday.
The Clarets have taken 13 points from the last 15 on offer in the league and the January addition of Marcus Edwards has bolstered their promotion credentials significantly.
Their two Championship duels with Preston both ended goalless - classic Burnley - but I’ll be getting against the visitors here.
This match has been priced identically to when the sides last met on February 15 but that was in the league. This, obviously, is a cup game.
Paul Heckingbottom’s side languish in mid-table, they are 80/1 to be relegated and 100/1 to finish in the top six with Sky Bet.
In the FA Cup, North End have beaten League One duo Charlton and Wycombe (pens) to reach this stage. Annoyingly, the Preston boss made six changes for both games but, with the domestic season petering out, he must fancy getting one over his local rivals on Saturday.
Heckingbottom masterminded Sheffield United’s FA Cup run to the semi-final en route to promotion in 2022/23 so has previous experience in this area.
With a home result priced at 8/11, I think the best way is taking PRESTON TO QUALIFY at 13/10.
Bournemouth vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 29/10 | Away 10/3
I am excited about some of the FA Cup fifth clashes, the all Premier League affairs to be specific and their potential for a lack of cards.
I did some serious digging into this specific round, well I went back across the last nine seasons, and found the following.
- Games: 72
- 0 cards: 10
- Under 1.5: 20
- Under 2.5: 32
- Under 3.5: 47
- Under 4.5: 64
In 15 games involving two top flight clubs across that period, 86.6% saw UNDER 4.5 CARDS, 40% saw UNDER 2.5 CARDS and UNDER 1.5 CARDS and a staggering 26.6% ended with NO CARDS.
En-route to the fifth round, Wolves' game with Bristol City only had one card and the game with Blackburn saw three.
Bournemouth’s games have had a combined total of nine, which is a concern, but I am not getting bogged down in specifics.
According to the official FA Cup website, the referee on the south coast is Sam Barrott.
He has dished out 3.5 cards per 14 FA Cup games, under 4.5 on 10 occasions and none twice.
Some sites are reporting Chris Kavanagh is the man in the middle though. He gave four or less cards in each of his three FA Cup games last season and under 4.5 in 19 of 22 games.
Whoever it is, I hope they left their cards at home.
QPR vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 21/10 | Away 7/5
I’m ticking Loftus Road off the list on Saturday.
Cheering on the Blades is the priority but also RONNIE EDWARDS' efforts.
Edwards is averaging 1.1 per game, racking up ten in nine appearances since joining from Southampton on loan in January.
The defender has had at least one shot in every one of his eight Championship starts and, at 11/10 to have 1+ SHOTS with bet365, his price looks too big here.
Considering he has also had 2+ SHOTS on two occasions and scored once since joining the Hoops, I’ll also be having a punt on him to have a couple of shots at 5/1 and TO SCORE ANYTIME at 28/1.
But let me assure you, I won’t be cheering on the latter.
Already advised
Thursday 20:00
1pt Barrow double chance vs Carlisle and Paul Farman to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Barrow to win and Paul Farman to be carded at 20/1 (bet365)
1pt Carlisle double chance and Gabriel Breeze to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Carlisle to win and Gabriel Breeze to be carded at 28/1 (bet365)
Barrow vs Carlisle
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 19/20 | Draw 21/20 | Away 13/5
While there may be a Premier League clash also taking place at the same time on Thursday, West Ham vs Leicester, it's all eyes on the televised fourth tier action for the column, as with TV cameras comes player cards.
It's a big game too, with Barrow taking on Carlisle in a Cumbrian derby.
Adam Herczeg is the referee and he has averaged just under four cards per game, an average return, but my eyes lit up when I saw he has booked four keepers in his last four appearances - three for time wasting, one of which coming in the 27th minute. In total this season Herczeg has carded seven stoppers across 26 appearances.
I don’t usually do this but with obliging keepers at both ends I think it is worth backing both stoppers TO BE CARDED alongside their respective teams to pick up a result.
This is a derby after all and the result could have a big say in the battle to stay up, so stakes are high.
BARROW should survive, they are 11 points above the dotted line but with 42 points left to play for they aren’t out of the woods yet.
Their keeper PAUL FARMAN has been carded six times this term (5Y 1R), four for time wasting, one for an argument and a red for a professional handball.
Putting Farman TO BE CARDED alongside his side TO WIN and WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE are the first couple of bets.
- CLICK HERE to back Barrow double chance and Paul Farman to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Barrow win and Paul Farman to be carded with Sky Bet
CARLISLE are rock bottom, five points adrift but a shock victory would move them level on points with second bottom Morecambe
Their keeper GABRIEL BREEZE has picked up three bookings, all since Christmas, and all for time wasting.
Combining Breeze TO BE CARDED alongside both Carlisle WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE and the visitors TO WIN is the bet again.
- CLICK HERE to back Carlisle double chance and Gabriel Breeze to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Carlisle win and Gabriel Breeze to be carded with Sky Bet
I'm basically banking on one of the keepers being carded and avoiding defeat. It's a hard game to call, so splitting stakes on both makes sense.
And if you're feeling really greedy, both keepers to be carded are available at 70/1 with bet365 and you can chuck in the draw at 275/1 just in case it is a topsy-turvy clash that descends into madness.
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (26/02/25)
Already advised
Friday 20:00
1pt Jobe Bellingham to be carded in Sheff Wed vs Sunderland at 9/2 (bet365)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 19/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 11/8
I got a good system as far as betting on Sunderland is concerned.
Are they playing away from home?
If the answer is yes, back JOBE BELLINGHAM TO BE CARDED.
Bellingham has 10 cards (nine yellows, one red) in 30 league appearances, which makes quotes of 9/2 for a booking look like cracking value.
He's played 15 games at home and only picked up one card. On the road is a different story with nine in the same amount of appearances.
Why may that be? I don't really know nor do I care.
All I know is, with a cards per 90 average of 0.62, his price to be carded on Friday night is too big.
Will Finnie is the referee. A solid appointment as he averages four cards per game in the Championship.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (27/02/25)
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