Middlesbrough may be the favourites for promotion through the play-offs, but they may find it difficult as they travel to Coventry on Sunday.
The play-offs aren't about winning games of football - the emphasis is placed on not losing them.
So, while Middlesbrough may have won the most of any of the four teams involved in the post-season competition, and as such take favouritism in the outright betting, they have also lost more games.
Of course, a managerial change took place, but even under Michael Carrick, they've returned points in fewer games than Coventry, Luton and Sunderland in his 29-game period at the helm.
Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
For the hosts of the first leg, it feels like their chances of progression do hinge on a positive result in front of their own supporters. They've demonstrated a capability to avoid defeat away.
Burnley were the only team who finished in the top-nine to get a win at Coventry, while Luton were able to escape with a point in a 1-1 draw. The Sky Blues won the other six - rather impressively five of those were to-nil.
At a general price of 13/8 then, taking COVENTRY TO WIN this one looks decent value.
I fancy them to make the final - as outlined in the outright preview here - as they have gained points in 73.9% of games this season, that puts them second to Luton in this metric.
They charge into the play-offs on the back of a run of one defeat in ten, while Middlesbrough saw more defeats than wins in their final ten-game stretch (3-4).
Five of their last nine home games have ended in victory, and that includes contests against Sunderland and Millwall - two sides who were battling for play-off inclusion on the final day.
For Middlesbrough, they are now winless in four away, with losses coming against Huddersfield, Luton and Rotherham. Across the last six on the road, they've endured four defeats.
Boro have known for a while they would have to settle for the play-offs, but a run of two wins in eight is hardly ideal form for three vital games. That makes COVENTRY the bet in the first leg encounter.
Coventry v Middlesbrough best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Coventry to win at 13/8 (General)
Score prediction: Coventry 1-0 Middlesbrough (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1540 BST (10/05/23)
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