To call the 2024/25 campaign they have produced to date a once-in-a-lifetime kind of season would be to disrespect Nottingham Forest’s rich, storied and gloried history.
This is a club who know a thing or two about miraculous seasons.
But for a club of comparatively humble means and stature – and in an era of super-clubs and state ownership – their rise from relegation scrappers to Champions League contenders is something no one foresaw.
Even after a 2-1 defeat to Fulham at Craven Cottage on Saturday, Forest still sit third in the Premier League table, three points ahead of reigning champions Manchester City.
However, awaiting Nuno Espirito Santo’s men over the next few of weeks is the biggest test yet of their credentials for European qualification, a run of fixtures that will either see their unlikely rise rubber-stamped to stamped upon.
First, this Sunday, comes a trip to St. James’ Park to take on a Newcastle team scorned by a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of City last weekend. Then they host Arsenal in a midweek match the Gunners will be determined to emerge from with their title hopes bolstered.
And then, sandwiched between a pair of dates with Ipswich – first in the FA Cup and latterly in the league – there is a top-four showdown with Pep Guardiola’s side at the City Ground on March 8.
Forest’s ascendance has been rapid under Nuno – who replaced Steve Cooper at the helm in December 2023 with the club one place above the relegation zone – but it has been carefully crafted.
He acted quickly to shore up what had been a leaky backline. The midseason addition of goalkeeper Matz Sels helped to that end last term, while centre-back Nikola Milenkovic – a £12 million summer arrival from Fiorentina – has been one of the signings of the season.
The result: Forest currently have the third-best defensive record in the Premier League.
They have another signing-of-the-season candidate in Elliot Anderson, too, whose £35 million addition from Newcastle has brought a degree of technicality, athleticism and ball-carrying ability that has proved to be the perfect complement to a midfield that is highlighted by the deft creativity of Morgan Gibbs-White in the No.10 role.
There have been few other big-ticket purchases under Nuno’s watch, with the former Tottenham and Wolves boss known to prefer to operate with a small squad – only 12 Forest players have featured in more than 1,000 Premier League minutes so far this term.
Instead of a vast overhaul of the underperforming squad he inherited, Nuno has leant into its strengths.
This has seen him emphasise a counter-attacking style that employs the pace and delivery of the likes of Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga on the wings and the physicality and finishing prowess of totemic centre-forward Chris Wood – the Kiwi Van Basten’s 18 league goals is a career high at age 33.
For all Nuno’s keenly plotted improvement, however, some degree of a regression has to be expected – and has been signposted.
Wolves are the only team in the top flight who have outperformed their expected goals (xG) total more than Forest so far this season.
And a remarkable run of eight wins and a draw over a nine-game period that spanned December 7 to January 9 has given way to two defeats in their last three games.
The first of those losses was a 5-0 reverse to fellow high-flyers Bournemouth. Forest responded by smashing Brighton 7-0 a week later. But then this past weekend’s 2-1 defeat to Fulham didn’t accurately reflect the level to which Forest were outplayed by their hosts.
And it is interesting to note that – likely owing to Nuno’s aversion to squad rotation – Forest didn’t seek to fortify their unexpected leap up the league with January additions last month.
Veteran goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey on a free transfer was their only first-team signing.
Still, with a string of season-defining games nearing, Nuno is untroubled by Forest’s recent undulation in form.
“It doesn’t mean anything,” the Portuguese tactician said after his side’s loss at Craven Cottage. “If you win the week before, it doesn’t mean you are going to win the next one. The Premier League is so unpredictable.
“We go game by game. Even when we win, we don’t make big calculations. It is all about the next one, and the next one is going to be very tough.”
As is inevitable when a club climbs the standings so quickly, the vultures have begun to circle for Forest’s best talent.
But the club have moved swiftly to stave off the advances of the Premier League’s traditional powers by tying down star performers like Wood and highly regarded centre-back Murillo to fresh long-terms deals.
They are also in talks with impressive full-back Ola Aina over a new deal. The Nigeria international’s current contract is set to expire at the end of the season, although Forest hold a unilateral option to extend it by a year.
So at the City Ground there is a stable core supplemented by recent arrivals with no apparent designs on a speedy exit.
If their hopes of European qualification remain intact on the other side of their upcoming run of unenviable fixtures, there’s no reason Forest’s rise can’t have legs beyond this season.
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