Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Over 3.5 Celtic corners at 2/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Celtic 4+ corners
- Michael Olise to score anytime
- Arne Engels 3+ tackles
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Agg. score: Bayern 2-1 Celtic
Home 1/7 | Draw 7/1 | Away 12/1
Daizen Maeda's late consolation goal in the first leg gave Celtic a chance, albeit a very slim one, but a chance nonetheless of progression to the next stage of the Champions League.
To do that, they need to beat Bayern Munich on the night in Bavaria. Bayer Leverkusen are the only side to have done that this season - 14 of their 16 in front of their own supporters ending in victory.
Even the dangling carrot of 28/1 on the visitors progressing here isn't enough to draw me in. Not only is there a gulf in quality but just two of Celtic's last seven away games in all comps have been wins.
THERE'S HOPE FOR CELTIC 🍀
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) February 12, 2025
Daizen Maeda steals in to head home Yang's effort, and reduce the deficit to 1 ⚽
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/hnZVhTMcuu
The Scottish champions played out their group stage as expected, they've just been unfortunate to have been dealt the possibility of facing one of two of Europe's underperforming traditional elite.
The best approach is to sit back and hope an opportunity pops up which they've got to take. That is far easier said than done.
What are the best bets?
Last week's approach saw Joshua Kimmich deliver a 7/2 winner as he provided the assist for Harry Kane - that coming directly from a corner.
A gift for Harry Kane 🎁
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) February 12, 2025
All alone at the back post, and the England captain makes no mistake, brilliantly finishing to double Bayern's lead ⚽️
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/zWgFZTv8n6
A price of 11/4 is available on a repeat showing (that being just the assist of course, not necessarily for Kane) and I wouldn't put anyone off going for it given that Bayern are expected to be on the front foot throughout.
There's an element of control to their game, particularly at home, and there should be large spells of possession for the hosts as they aim to remove any potential hope Celtic may have.
Given the likely game state, I don't mind taking the 2/1 price on OVER 3.5 CELTIC CORNERS here.
I'm not particularly fussed by the fact the visitors don't typically take many corners in games against Bayern, it is down to the way we're expecting the contest to play out.
Celtic took seven, as did Bayern, in the first leg and it's particularly interesting that all seven of those came after the German giants found themselves 2-0 in front.
Obviously they don't have the home crowd this time around but Bayern holding a goal or two lead on the night leaves Celtic with a 'nothing to lose' sort of situation where they simply have to force a way through.
We often see panic and rushed football played in those situations where crossing starts to become more frequent. Get the ball in the box and do it as quickly as possible.
That should see some efforts deflected behind. At the prices, it's worth a play.
Team news
Bayern Munich are in a similar place as they were for the first leg and could therefore field the same line-up.
Alphonso Davies and João Palhinha are their two major injury concerns and both could be forced to sit this one out as well.
The versatile Raphaël Guerreiro is likely to continue at left-back in place of Davies if he is unavailable to start.
James Forrest remains out for Celtic, while Paulo Bernardo is also sidelined with injury. Arne Engels should continue in his place in midfield.
Predicted line-ups
Bayern XI: Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Pavlović; Olise, Musiala, Sané; Kane.
Celtic XI: Schmeichel; Johnston, Carter-Vickers, Trusty, Taylor; Engels, McGregor, Hatate; Kühn, Idah, Maeda.
Match facts
- Bayern Munich have won their last five home European matches against Scottish opponents and have never at home against a Scottish team (W7 D3).
- Celtic have been eliminated in their last nine major European knockout ties when they’ve lost the first leg, since going through against 1. FC Köln in the first round of the 1992-93 UEFA Cup (0-2 first leg, 3-0 second leg). They’ve never progressed when losing the first leg at home, however (seven previous instances).
- Bayern Munich have progressed from their last 13 UEFA Champions League knockout ties when they’ve won the first leg. The last time they were knocked out was in the last 16 against Internazionale in 2010-11, winning 1-0 in Italy in the first leg before losing 3-2 in the second leg and going out on away goals.
- Celtic have played 15 away games against German opposition in Europe, and are still looking for their first such victory (D3 L12). Indeed, they’ve lost on their last five trips there by an aggregate score of 4-18, with their most recent game in Germany being a 1-7 defeat to Borussia Dortmund earlier this season.
- Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last 20 home matches in the UEFA Champions League (W16 D4), while only once previously have they had a longer such run in the competition – 29 games between March 1998 and April 2002. Indeed, their current unbeaten home streak of 20 games is also the longest active one in the Champions League.
- Bayern Munich have won all four of their home matches under Vincent Kompany in the UEFA Champions League. Only two previous Bayern managers have won their first five home games in the competition: Hansi Flick (won first seven between 2019-2021) and Josef Heynckes (won first nine between 2011-2012).
- Celtic failed to attempt a single shot in the first half of the first leg against Bayern Munich but in the second half they had nine shots to Bayern’s five. They also completed more passes (239 vs 213) and had more possession (53%), while their 19 touches in Bayern’s box were the most by a team in a half of Champions League football against Bayern since Real Madrid in the second half in May 2024 (23).
- Since the start of last season, Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane has scored more UEFA Champions League goals than any other player (15 in 20 games). Kane is the first Bayern player to hit 15 Champions League goals in 20 or fewer games, breaking Roy Makaay’s record (21 games).
- Jamal Musiala has created 15 chances while under high-intensity pressure from an opposition player in the UEFA Champions League this season, with only Florian Wirtz (19) doing so more often. Three of those have resulted in assists for goals, with no player setting up more under such pressure.
- Celtic’s Daizen Maeda has scored four UEFA Champions League goals this season, the most by a Japanese player in a season and the most by a Bhoys player in a European Cup campaign since Joseph Craig in 1977-78 (four). Only three have scored more in a season – Stephen Chalmers in 1966-67 (5), William Wallace in 1970-71 (5) and Lou Macari in 1971-72 (5).
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (17/02/25)
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