Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for day one of the Australian Open – check out what he’s backing on Sunday…
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
2pts over 33.5 games in Casper Ruud v Jaume Munar at 17/20 (William Hill)
1pt Thiago Monteiro to beat Kei Nishikori at 7/2 (General)
1pt Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Juncheng Shang at 11/10 (William Hill)
Casper Ruud v Jaume Munar
Munar was a real eyecatcher at the season-opening event in Hong Kong.
He beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Nuno Borges and Lorenzo Musetti en route to the semi-finals and could cause Ruud a few problems here.
He certainly has in the past. Ruud leads the tour-level head-to-head 2-1, although all three matches have been tight and it’s interesting to note that Munar won the only hardcourt meeting, in Tokyo in 2022.
Sixth seed Ruud doesn’t have the best record at the Australian Open and a look through his results shows only two of his completed matches have been settled in straight sets, while just one has been won in that manner.
Over 33.5 games and Munar on the handicap with a 6.5-game start both appeal. I’ll go for the former at 17/20, with the slightly higher line of 34.5 also worth considering.
Kei Nishikori v Thiago Monteiro
Nishikori impressed at that aforementioned Hong Kong tournament, reaching the final, but I think that too much is being read into that result here.
Monteiro was an impressive qualifier, not dropping a set, with his serve particularly potent.
I’ve written before about how that shot of his is under-rated and he was broken only once in his three qualifying matches, winning 86% of his first-serve points. The second serve also held up well, winning 63% of points.
I remember him getting in a similar groove in Melbourne at the COVID events in 2021, while he’s also played well in Adelaide in the past. Not bad on these GreenSet courts for a player regarded as something of a clay specialist.
OK, Nishikori does have a fine record against left-handers but his body is also very brittle these days and the best-of-five-sets format is far from ideal for the 35-year-old.
If Monteiro is able to take this long, he could well be in business, and I can’t resist a small punt on the upset at 7/2.
Juncheng Shang v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shang is very hit and miss and, having retired from his most recent match in Hong Kong just over a week ago, I wonder what we’ll get from the rising Chinese star here.
He certainly struggled to deal with Fokina last season.
The pair met twice – on hardcourts in Miami and clay in Madrid – and on each occasion the Spaniard triumphed in straight sets.
He went unbroken in Miami, while on each occasion, Shang failed to dominate on his first serve, winning only 64% of points behind it on the hard surface and just 50% on the clay.
Fokina, admittedly, is yet to sparkle in 2025 but last week’s Adelaide defeat to eventual finalist Sebastian Korda was no disgrace.
A small bet on the underdog at odds-against is the call.
Preview posted 1155 GMT on 11/01/2025
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