The Crucible Theatre enters a more serene phase with the World Seniors Championship beginning on Wednesday – James Cooper has crunched the numbers and recommends two bets in the outright market.
Rather like a veterans’ chase in horse racing, the task for a punter can be a complex one when assessing the merit of competitors in the twilight of their careers.
Do you attempt find the least-regressive participant/the youngest in the line-up who may retain all of his/her enthusiasm, or perhaps risk a once-smart operator in the hope they can rekindle the flame?
If you are plumping for the former strategy then the obvious starting point in this event, in theory anyway, is Michael Holt. A year ago it would surely have been more likely that the Hitman would have qualified for the main event rather than taking in this one on the back of losing his tour status.
Such is the strength in depth on the tour, though, Holt, along with the likes of Fergal O’Brien, Sunny Akani and Martin O’Donnell to name but three need a deep run at Ponds Forge this month to earn the right to compete on the main circuit next season.
So, is Holt a “good thing” to gain a confidence-boosting victory down in class? Well, the answer from me is NO on two fronts, his current underlying numbers coupled with a brutal draw by the standards of this event.
The table below helps flesh out last season (aside from 2021 Q School, Championship League and Shoot Out results) analysing the performance of the ten main-tour competitors.
What is very apparent is that Holt not only had a wretched season by his standards, but he also had a pretty soft run of opponents, indicated by a low schedule number.
Yes, the mindset will be different here and on form from say 2020, he would be a 6/4 shot to take care of these, but the recent figures are hard to ignore, so at 7/2 he is passed over given he’s been drawn in the same half as David Lilley and Ken Doherty. Furthermore, the winner of the Darren Morgan/Patrick Wallace clash will be no walkover in what is still a best-of-five match at that stage.
Another facing a trip to Q School is RORY MCLEOD but as the table illustrates, his game looks to be in pretty good shape. A high Run-To-Form figure confirms he’s been very competitive throughout the campaign and unlike a few here, he is still evidently very capable of getting over the line in matches.
A 6-4 win against Ken Doherty in World Championship Qualifying is a very persuasive piece of form at this level and while McLeod has an extra game to play (he starts in Round 1), the draw has been very favourable indeed with Frank Sarsfield and Joe Johnson not expected to put up much resistance prior to a likely quarter-final clash with Jimmy White.
He’s a 13/2 chance on my model for glory and with each-way terms at ½ odds 1-2, the place part of the bet is very appealing given he’s only a shade bigger than 9/4 with me to reach the final.
As you will have already gathered, the top half looks very trappy indeed with the first three in the betting all housed in that section. That’s before you consider seven-time Crucible champion Stephen Hendry.
Hendry’s level of motivation is unclear at present. He didn’t really utilise the first wildcard he was offered (albeit covid was a factor for the early part) and while he has been granted another one to use, there’s a chance he is more of a social runner these days.
With that in mind, I shall risk his likely second-round opponent LEE WALKER at fancy prices.
It’s probably fair to say that Walker has one eye on his coaching career as his main source of income in the future but that said, he is giving Q School a shot and displayed flashes in 2021/22 that his best game is still capable of causing players at this level serious problems.
He is 14/1 with me to taste success so the 18/1 available is worth adding to the main bet.
Posted at 1630 BST on 03/05/22
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