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Mark Selby is chasing more Crucible glory

Snooker betting tips: World Championship semi-finals best bets and preview

By Sporting Life

Snooker

Thu April 27, 2023 · 2y ago

Richard Mann previews the World Championship semi-finals, where his outright selection Mark Selby is the man to beat.

Snooker betting tips: World Championship semi-finals

1.5pts Si Jiahui to beat Luca Brecel (-1.5) at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pts Si Jiahui to beat Luca Brecel 17-12 at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

0.5pts Si Jiahui to beat Luca Brecel 17-13 at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

0.5pts Si Jiahui to beat Luca Brecel 17-14 at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

This year’s World Championship has had a twist at almost every turn, and quarter-finals Wednesday produced the biggest of all as Ronnie O’Sullivan failed to add a single frame to his 10-6 overnight lead over Luca Brecel and crashed out to the mercurial Belgian.

O’Sullivan had started the day as strong favourite for the tournament, one he has won seven times already, including in 2022, but Mark Selby is now clear outright favourite at 11/10 following his demolition job on John Higgins.

That pair, with eight Crucible wins between them, resumed at 4-4 but any thoughts that this one might go the distance were way off the mark as Selby won five of the six frames played in the afternoon before they were hauled off ahead of the evening session.

Despite having to play back-to-back sessions, Selby cruised into an eighth World Championship semi-final, wrapping up his 13-7 victory early enough to ensure he should be fresh as paint when he locks horns with Mark Allen in the last four.

Selby and Allen set for Crucible showdown

Allen has been the player of the season so far, scooping three titles, including the first leg of the Triple Crown Series at the UK Championship in York in November. In his own words, it hasn’t always been ‘pretty to watch’ but he has found a way to win matches he used to lose, with a B-game that is now so hard to beat.

The biggest improvement I have seen from Allen is between his ears and I’d argue the best trait he now possesses is his deep reserves of patience. He displayed that in spades when holding onto Jak Jones’ coattails in the last eight before pulling away in the home straight, and also when beating Zhou Yuelong and Ding Junhui from behind in two major finals earlier this term.

Mark Allen savours the moment in York

I’ve rarely seen this once hot-headed but very likeable Northern Irishman get flustered in the last six months, and his willingness to fight for every point has been most impressive. These are qualities that have helped Selby become the most successful Crucible player of the last decade, and a semi-final between this pair promises to be a real battle of the mind.

Expect no quarter to be given, but while Allen’s best form so far in Sheffield came in his second-round waltz past Stuart Bingham – he was the first admit he didn’t play well against Jones – Selby appears to be doing what he has done so many times before in this event: peaking at the right time.

The old maxim about needing to save your best snooker for the second week of the World Championship has again been proven correct, and the best performers of the early rounds – think Neil Robertson, Kyren Wilson and Higgins – have all fallen by the wayside.

Selby hardly pulled up any trees against Matt Selt or Gary Wilson, but he was outstanding in the second and third sessions against Higgins, reeling off a series of big breaks to quickly make us forget that he was 3-0 down in the early throes of that match.

Selby sticks with tried and trusted method

That’s just what Selby does. He finds a way to limit the damage when his opponent is on the front foot, winning by any means available to him, and then manages to find his best form for the latter stages of a snooker marathon that while not so much demanding a sprint finish, always needs one man to step above the parapet to get the job done.

Allen is clearly capable of doing that. I’ve always felt he has the game to become world champion, and he’ll need his newfound mental strength to stand up to Selby. But while Selby looks to be finding his best attacking game at the right time, I’m not convinced Allen is.

He looked very sharp against Bingham, but he didn’t meet a great deal of resistance there and most certainly will from Selby. If Allen is banking on battling to another big win, he won’t find Selby as generous as Bingham was, or indeed Ding when he blew a big lead over Allen in the UK final in York. Selby is the master tactician, and nobody scraps better than he does.

If this match goes down that route, it’s hard to see Selby losing, for all it could make for grim viewing. And if the match is more open, Selby ought to fancy his chances given how well he played in the latter stages against Higgins. We shouldn’t forget that Higgins came into that one having just trounced the in-form Wilson in the previous round. It looks strong form.

Whichever way you look at it – and it is significant that of the remaining four contenders, Selby is the only one who has been there and done it before at the Crucible – Selby looks to hold all the aces and should, as expected, he battle past Allen, he will be a short-priced favourite in the final.

Followers of these pages already have Selby onside at 6/1, having been advised in my outright tournament preview, and while the value has all gone, I remain confident and can’t see a bet elsewhere in the outright market, not even for cover.

Brecel could come unstuck against plucky Si

Others might disagree and feel Brecel is the play from here at 3/1 following his brilliant comeback win over O’Sullivan. He is around the 1/2 mark to beat SI JIAHUI and reach the final, but I’d advise some caution here.

On his performances against O’Sullivan and Mark Williams, he ought to have too many guns for Si, but we shouldn’t forget that he arrived in Sheffield this year having never previously won a match at the Crucible. He scraped past Ricky Walden in round one and while he has clearly turned a big corner in regards to this tournament, he isn’t bombproof.

Warm words for Luca Brecel from Ronnie O'Sullivan

He remains capable of throwing in the type of bad session that has stopped him winning the tournaments his rich talents say he should have won, and he's made no secret of the fact he doesn’t think he has the game to scrap it out in long matches over multiple sessions. Brecel beat Williams and O’Sullivan on talent and class, but he will have to get his hands dirty at some stage.

Should he make the final, and the bookmakers clearly think he will, nether Selby nor Allen will open the front door for him, and just as Selby did in the English Open final earlier in the campaign, I suspect Brecel would get outstayed by either of these tough-as-teak operators.

Before then, Brecel has no easy task against Si, who has proven himself a fabulous player in the last few weeks, one who will only get better. Brecel might not have won a match here before this year, but Si had never played at the Crucible before coming through qualifying and he has beat some very good players to get this far.

That list includes Tom Ford, Jordan Brown, Shaun Murphy, Robert Milkins and Anthony McGill. These are high-class performers, recent ranking winners no less, and in the case of Murphy, a former world champion and the form horse coming into this year’s renewal.

McGill is always a hard man to beat in Sheffield, and he had already lowered the colours of Jack Lisowski and Judd Trump before Si ended his hopes.

And we’ve seen different sides to Si’s game throughout the tournament. He can certainly pot and score, while beating someone like McGill 13-12 confirms he can hold his own in regards to the tactical side of the game. He can battle, and he looks to have a good temperament together with plenty of bottle.

Can Si Jiahui spring another surprise?

Maybe he can't beat Brecel in an arm wrestle – and how both men adapt to the famous one-table set-up at the Crucible will be fascinating – but he has shown he can box clever, while I’m curious to see what happens to Brecel if his form deserts him for a session, or even two.

When McGill threatened to run away with their semi-final, Si continued to display remarkable resilience and durability, defying his relative inexperience, and if he can weather the inevitable Brecel storm, this is a match he can win.

CLICK HERE to back Si (-1.5) with Sky Bet

In a long match played over four sessions, I’m happy to chance that Brecel will come unstuck somewhere along the way and am backing the impressive Si to take him down.

Anything above 6/4 in the match market is fair, but the handicap markets have offered some good value throughout the tournament and Si (-1.5) at 2/1 makes more appeal. Alternatively, the correct score market is worth a second look, with SI TO WIN 17-12, SI TO WIN 17-13 and SI TO WIN 17-14 available at 18/1, 16/1 and 16/1 respectively.

Try backing all three correct scores to small stakes, with the main bet on Si on the handicap.

Preview published at 0745 BST on 27/04/23