Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson is our man on the ground this week at Ayr, where he fancies Willie Mullins to win the big one.
TRAPRAIN LAW (1.10 Ayr)
The last two winners of this race, Malystic (2023) and Tommy’s Oscar (2024), are back for another bite at the cherry - but they may have to give best to the younger legs of Traprain Law, who can avenge his two-and-a-half-length defeat by the latter 12 months ago. Lucinda Russell’s grey didn’t jump with his usual fluency that day as he mixed it on the front end with Sans Bruit. Their duel perhaps also left them vulnerable to Tommy’s Oscar, who got the perfect tow into things under the excellent Danny McMenamin and then pounced with a decisive burst.
I wouldn’t judge Traprain Law too harshly for the fact he’s winless in five starts this season. Three have come on less favourable right-handed tracks, and two of those when held up over 2m4f. He’s a far better tool when able to bowl along in a well-run 2m, as he did when acquitting himself creditably in last month’s Grand Annual. He’s dropped 5lb since the start of the season, and is also now 3lb lower than for this race last year. That may all have been part of the plan for his patriotic Scottish owner Ray Green, who actively targets his horses at this meeting more than any other. Merigo, anyone?
The Inside Track: “His jumping was still a bit novicey in this race last year. The two chases he’d won he was never out of his comfort zone, so it was a bit of a learning curve for him 12 months ago. He’s run well in defeat every time this season. His jumping was good in the Grand Annual last time. Things just happened a bit too quickly for him coming down the hill but he stayed on again. Softer ground would be preferable, but it’s the first race of the day and hopefully it will be well watered.” - Patrick Wadge, jockey
KIHAVAH (2.15 Ayr)
In the absence of Kargese and Absurde, Ethical Diamond has assumed the mantle of Willie Mullins-trained favourite for this £100,000 handicap which is a Champion Hurdle in name only. He was fourth behind those aforementioned two stable-mates in last month’s County Hurdle at Cheltenham, an effort he’s due extra house points given he was set an impossible task in being dropped out in a race run nearly 3.5 seconds slower than the Triumph. At 3/1 or thereabouts, he’ll have his backers from a mark only 1lb higher.
Genuinely good ground would make the returning Kihavah a danger to all at a double-figure price. Runner-up in August’s Ebor and then a winner here on the Flat the following month, Adrian Keatley’s evergreen eight-year-old posted career-best Timeform figures over hurdles when last seen in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth in November, and when second to Rubaud at Kempton before that. Given the six-figure value of this race, it’s hard to imagine the canny Keatley won’t have him primed to run another PB under Brian Hughes, who is 1-1 on him.
At an even bigger price, dual Morebattle Hurdle hero Cracking Rhapsody, who was third in this race 12 months, isn’t without frame claims.
The Inside Track: “This has been the plan for a long time and his preparation has been 100 per cent. He’s in good form. Off his last run we think he has very good chance. I just hope the ground dries out a bit. It was on the slow side of good on Friday, but it was a very warm day at Ayr and Saturday is meant to be the same.” - Adrian Keatley, trainer
ROCKOLA VOGUE (2.55 Ayr)
I can’t recall many handicaps where the winner’s mark was left untouched. Especially when the runner-up drew a further five lengths clear of the third. Yet that’s exactly the scenario for Rockola Vogue after she landed the 2m4f Lady Buttons series final at the Musselburgh leg of last month’s Go North Weekend.
That unexpected largesse from the assessor is mainly due to the fact the runner-up O’Faolains Glory was 12lb out of the weights (the third Lady Babs was also 2lb ‘wrong’) in an unsatisfactorily lopsided handicap. On the flip side, there was lots to like about the way David Killahena and Graeme McPherson’s mare ran down the well-ridden runner-up, who very nearly took full advantage of a freebie out in front. It took her pretty much all of the Musselburgh straight to do so, which strongly suggests this step up to an extended 3m for the first time will bring about further improvement.
Yet to finish out of the first three in five starts over hurdles (and three more in bumpers), I suspect there remains untapped potential in her mark, especially as there remains a fair amount of scope for improvement in her jumping. If there is a potential flaw in her armoury moving into a more competitive contest here, that would be it.
The Inside Track: “I’ve never known one of my horses not get put up by the handicapper for winning, but that’s what happened with Rockola Vogue last time. Not that I'm complaining! It was a strange race with so many out of the handicap, including the runner-up who was 12lb wrong. We thought our mare was nicely treated going to Musselburgh, so we’re of the same view now! Going up to 3m has always been the plan and this looks a great opportunity for her. Her jumping is still a work in progress, but we’re going to Ayr quite confident.” - Graeme McPherson, joint trainer
SPANISH HARLEM (3.35 Ayr)
If there was one horse to take out of last season’s Scottish National with a view to this one, it was undoubtedly sixth-placed Spanish Harlem. The pick of Paul Townend on that occasion, this Mullins-trained novice fared best (along with stable-mate Ontheropes in fifth) of those horses who came from further back behind the front four, all of whom occupied much more prominent pitches.
For all it’s a 4m marathon encompassing three circuits of the track, being close to the pace from an early stage is a proven formula for Scottish National success. Maybe Townend’s lack of Ayr experience played a part in that? Or maybe he was mindful of not getting drawn into the heat of battle too early on a horse stepping out in trip from 2m4f all the way to 4m for the first time. He was stealthily making headway on to the heels of the leaders when a stuttering leap at the fourth last halted his momentum.
A patient campaign, behind the likes of Nick Rockett and Perceval Legallois, looks to have been focused on bringing him to the boil for another crack at Scotland’s richest race. Midfield finishes in Leopardstown’s Paddy Power Chase and the Thyestes were followed by an encouraging fourth in Punchestown’s Grand National Trial seven weeks ago. The upshot is Spanish Harlem returns to Ayr 4lb lower, meaning he’s also 9lb and 10lb better off respectively with last year’s winner Macdermott and runner-up Surrey Quest for eight and a bit lengths. Intriguingly, cheekpieces go on for the first time, which may help Brian Hayes to adopt and hold a handier position than Townend did 12 months ago.
The Inside Track: “ We’ve been minding him, and this is probably his first time on fast ground this season and I think that might make a difference. He wears cheekpieces too and the whole lot put together should help him improve." Willie Mullins, trainer
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Free bets
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
