Emaraaty Ana and Andrea Atzeni after winning the Sprint Cup
Emaraaty Ana and Andrea Atzeni after winning the Sprint Cup

Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North


Graeme North looks at what the clock tells us about the recent big-race action including Emaraaty Ana's win in the Betfair Sprint Cup.

July 2021 might have been the hottest month on record according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, since when the mercury has gone on to touch 48.8 degrees Celsius in Sicily, reportedly making for the hottest day ever in Europe, but back home the weather focus has been of a much gloomier kind as parts of the United Kingdom recorded their third dullest August since records began.

While Greater London and some Southern counties saw around 50% more rain than normal, conditions in the north have been much drier and that has led to some extremely quick times over the last week or so. Haydock’s three-day Betfair Sprint Cup meeting started on Thursday with New Kingdom and Al Suhail both smashing track records (the former a juvenile one) and with no rainfall forecast, it wouldn’t have been a surprise had the track record tumbled too in the Betfair Sprint Cup, the feature event of Haydock’s flat season.

As it transpired, Harry Angel’s course record of 68.56 set in the 2017 Sandy Lane Stakes remained intact but in winning in a time of 69.10 seconds Emaraaty Ana still managed to run faster than any other horse ever has over the straight six furlongs to edge out the July Cup winner Starman in a timefigure of 113 (the fourth time this season, incidentally, that Emaraaty Ana has posted the same figure with the other three efforts coming at the minimum trip).

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What that 113 figure suggests is that while well-run, the Betfair Sprint Cup wasn’t the speed burn-up it might have been and that almost certainly helped Nunthorpe runner-up Emaraaty Ana, who travelled best and longest on the bridle, while slightly hindering Starman who was gaining quickly late but would have benefitted from the race being more of a test.

It wasn’t a vintage renewal and I can’t but think the cards fell right for Emaraaty Ana on the day. Had the race been at Ascot for example, where Timeform’s standard time for six furlongs is getting on for two seconds slower than Haydock’s, then Starman (who ran a 122 timefigure in the July Cup where Emaraaty Ana was back in eleventh) would I’m sure have been the one lifting the prize.

There was some good quality action at Kempton on Saturday where one-time Melrose winner Hamish made a remarkable comeback in the September Stakes, not least given it was his first run for over a year under conditions – a steadily-run mile-and-a-half - that wouldn’t have been his optimum, even if the same could be said about the runner-up Hukum, last seen winning the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury.

A lowly timefigure of 71 indicates the race turned into something of a dash, but add a turn of foot to a long-standing consideration that he’ll relish two miles and Hamish will give Stradivarius and Trueshan something to think about in QIPCO Long Distance Cup on Champions Day, so long as we don’t get an ‘Indian summer’, of course, with fast ground having ruled him out of the Sky Bet Ebor last month.

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Elsewhere on the card, Eve Lodge’s win in the Sirenia Stakes elicited an emotional post-race interview with winning trainer Charlie Fellowes whose stable star Prince Of Arran was retired following the September Stakes.

The latter landed a Group 3 in Australia in 2018, but Eve Lodge was Fellowes’ first domestic Group winner after four seconds and five thirds. Anyone who has followed my Timefigure previews for the major meetings this season either on Timeform or Sporting Life might remember I was keen on Eve Lodge for the Albany after a promising debut at Ascot where she ran much the fastest last three furlongs and would have run faster still had she not been impeded twice in the penultimate furlong.

As it was, the Albany probably came too soon for her, but the Sirenia showed she would have gone close in that race on this effort and a 99 form rating and 94 timefigure for Kempton puts her just outside the top ten home-trained two-year-old fillies this season on the clock.

Mention of which, the leader of that domestic division remains the Albany and Duchess of Cambridge winner Sandrine on 103, but Flotus who looked potentially smart on her debut at Goodwood in May but had finished down the field in three runs since, twice behind Sandrine, is pushing her close on 102 after returning to form with a vengeance in Ripon’s Champion Two Yearr Old Trophy.

A four-and-half-length demolition of Hellomydarlin (who herself had recorded a timefigure of 100 when second in a nursery at the Ebor meeting) puts her bang in contention for the Juddmonte Cheveley Park, a race Eve Lodge has not been entered for.

Baaeed is very special and wins his first Group 1 in the Moulin!

Over in France, Baaeed confirmed in the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp much of what has been written about him since the sectionals he ran in lesser races earlier in the season showed he was a Group One performer.

The opposition in the Moulin was more demanding than he would have faced had he run in the Celebration Mile the previous weekend, but even so Order Of Australia and Victor Ludorum are not exactly top scalps and he would have to do more to overcome the likes of St Mark’s Basilica, Poetic Flare or Palace Pier.

Using a universal finishing speed model, Baaeed is another 3lb better than Order Of Australia than the result suggests with Victor Ludorum (who ran the last 600m slightly faster according to the McLloyd tracking data available on the France Galop website) the moral runner-up.

The Moulin was one of five Group races on the card and Acer Alley, the winner of the first of them, the Prix La Rochette, looks a decent prospect. A Siyouni half-sister to a Grade One winner in the States, she hadn’t run since winning a heavy-ground Saint-Cloud maiden three months earlier, but she ran a very snappy 22.08 last 400m (Baaeed ran 22.46) from an unpromising position for all her cause was aided by Ascot listed winner New Science finding all the trouble going.

White Walker, a horse I wrote in one of my recent columns as being well ahead of his mark, ran at Uttoxeter last week and his staying-on fourth prompted Sky Sports Racing to revisit the video after complaints from viewers his effort hadn’t been given due attention. For those unfamiliar with the performance, White Walker was held up well adrift of the leaders in a steadily-run race and wasn’t asked for his effort until well into the home straight, eventually finishing fourth to Uno Mas.

The conclusion of the Sky Sports Racing presenter on the day after watching the replay was that there was ‘nothing to see’ but sectional times and methodology used to generate upgrades over jumps internally at Timeform show conclusively that White Walker, as the viewers rightly pointed out, was set far too much to do.

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Uno Mas had a finishing speed of 104.5% from 3 out which gave him an upgrade of 18lb; White Walker’s finishing speed was 108% which, when translated into an upgrade, offsets the distance he was beaten by several lengths. As Timeform’s in-running comment (‘wasn’t seen to best effect, left with a lot to do’) testifies, White Walker was the best horse in the race and can be considered a winner without a penalty.

The remit of this column doesn’t stretch to covering the BHA revisiting their handicapping methods over jumps in the light of the last two Cheltenham Festival drubbings by the Irish, but developing a greater understanding of time and pace and incorporating those conclusions into their ratings is one area they should be utilising more.

As pointed out in this column a few weeks ago, Hatcher (unchanged on 150 despite finishing well beaten at Cartmel last Monday) is a good example of how official ratings can sometimes get out of control using a one-dimensional pounds and lengths approach when the horse in question has done little to deserve it.


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