Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Northumberland Plate day at Newcastle

Recommended bets, Saturday June 27

1pt win Harry's Bar in 1.50 Newcastle at 16/1

1pt win Venturous in 2.25 Newcastle at 9/1

1pt win King's Advice in 3.35 Newcastle at 16/1

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The 2020 Betfair Northumberland Plate Handicap will lack a certain something without the vocally-blessed people of Newcastle creating that mini-Melbourne Cup feel around Gosforth Park.

The race itself is lacking a little in terms of genuine quality, with horses rated in the 80s making the cut for the first time since 2013. In fact, half the field is below 90 on the BHA ratings scale and that includes long-time market leader Australis for Roger Varian.

He has the potential to rate higher, of course, and in a sense we should be grateful that a lack of perceived ‘dead wood’ higher in the weights means we get to see these progressive four-year-olds in the race proper, rather than having to settle for a place in the consolation race which can often be the case.

He’s not alone in that bracket with Caravan Of Hope, the horse he beat narrowly but ultimately quite comfortably at Wolverhampton, another four-year-old with plenty of upside.

Hugo Palmer’s horse is 1lb better off for a half-length defeat but it might not be enough, given he’s drawn out in stall 17. It’s not necessarily a terrible thing to be out wide here but genuine hold-up tactics, which have worked well elsewhere for Caravan Of Hope, have proved difficult to execute in this particular race, especially since the switch in surface.

Australis, on the other hand, is a proven prominent racer and should realistically have a good pitch which is crucial as the pace can quicken sharply on turning into the straight with three furlongs to travel.

However, KING’S ADVICE – drawn in eight and generally quick from the gates - is another likely to be in the pocket behind possible pace-setters Denmead and stablemate Anyonecanhaveitall, and he looks over-priced at 16/1 (Coral).

Sent off 5/1 for the race last year when bidding to complete a remarkable seven-timer, he came up short in sixth but was only beaten two and a half lengths and it was a massive effort all things considered.

He’d had a very busy run through the spring and it appeared PJ McDonald was keen not to use up too much gas early on from out wide in stall 18, but the horse didn’t appreciate the change in tactics (had made most in six previous wins) and raced on and off the bridle behind a wall of horses.

He came widest of all around the turn and up the final couple of furlongs but stuck to the task well in defeat, after which he promptly resumed winning ways with big handicap victories at Newmarket and Goodwood.

Up to a mark of 112 (from 71) by the end of last season, we’re essentially looking at a Cup horse when he’s on song and there were clear signs at Doncaster last time that he was closing in on his peak again.

After being stuffed in his first two outings this year, he went pot-hunting in Saudi Arabia but wasn’t fully tuned up according to Charlie Johnston and he still looked half-baked when sixth at 40/1 (behind reopposing Rainbow Dreamer) in the Sagaro Stakes, this year staged over the Plate course on June 6.

But the 2019 sharpness was definitely in evidence on Town Moor. He was backed accordingly (6/4 favourite) and put up a bold effort off level weights behind Red Verdon (109), with the 107-rated Euchen Glen over three lengths further back in third.

The assessor hasn’t touched him so he’s 5lb higher than when beaten in last year’s Plate but still 2lb lower than when winning a Goodwood in August. So he’s realistically treated of 106, without being thrown in, and is just the sort to bully inferior rivals now back in a handicap.

A combination of factors – including baking heat and the prospect of localised thunderstorms – has resulted in small fields at Newmarket, where the Group Three Betway Criterion Stakes is the feature.

I’ve got big expectations for Turjomaan this year and he sneaks into this under the radar following a low-key comeback on ground softer than ideal in the Queen Anne last week. If the torrential rain stays away he could run well at a price but having got Limato on side at 13/2 in Monday’s preview it’s a race I’m happy to sit back and soak up.

So the remaining bets are all back in the north east, including in the Betfair Free Bet Streak Gosforth Park Cup.

To state they won’t be hanging around would be to suggest they do occasionally dawdle in five furlong handicaps – which is clearly nonsense – but the pace-setters here are of a particularly high calibre, which should result in the hold-up performers having more than a fighting chance.

Proven fliers Copper Knight, winner of this event in 2018 and runner-up 12 months ago, as well as Caspian Prince who is drawn on the other side, both still have the legs to remain competitive deep into proceedings at this kind of level but David Barron’s VENTUROUS (9/1, General) might get a piece of the action late on if Hollie Doyle can vaguely keep tabs on the speed through the first three furlongs.

He messed about before the start at Haydock on Wednesday and wasn’t brilliantly away from the stalls but did make up good ground in the final stages, eventually succumbing by a length and a quarter to the progressive Mountain Peak, who had dashed too far clear on the stands’ side to be caught.

Venturous, formerly rated 97 in his youth for Charlie Appleby, gets another shot from a mark of 89 which is only 2lb higher than when stylishly beating Heath Charnock over the same course and distance at Newcastle in January.

That was his second all-weather triumph having won on the similar (Tapeta) surface at Wolverhampton from a reduced rating earlier last year, and it’s worth allaying any fears over him backing up this week as he’s often taken two quick runs well in the past.

Above all, though, the set-up on Saturday looks to give the strong-traveller a really good opportunity of adding to those all-weather gains.

Mubakker dominates the market for the Betfair Backs Racing Welfare Chipchase Stakes and he could simply be on too much of an upward curve to be contained.

At the prices there’s also no escaping the fact he still has a fair bit of progress to make to be challenging the more established figures in this line-up.

There has to be some doubt about Brando being worthy of his current BHA mark of 115 and he might now be on the decline, but stablemate Major Jumbo is quite solid with a return to Newcastle expected to suit.

It’s been a while since Kevin Ryan ran him here but he was a winner and a close second at the track in early-2017 and his recent Newmarket comeback in the Palace House was encouraging.

However, it’s hard to argue he’s being underestimated which isn’t the case with HARRY’S BAR (16/1, General).

He too has ground to make up on the market leaders in terms of bare form but he’s very much a sprinter who only does enough and, in spite of a dead impressive all-weather strike-rate (5-11), there’s evidence to suggest he could yet have even more to offer and continue to improve beyond his official rating of 101 now granted the opportunity in Group company.

He’s definitely earned a crack at something decent after really moving through the ranks in the past year – he was rated 74 at the start of June last year – and it shouldn’t be a total surprise he’s only now fulfilling his potential aged five as he was unraced at two and made just the one public appearance as a three-year-old.

He’s from a family trainer James Fanshawe knows well and they do tend to come into their own as five and six-year-olds so Harry’s Bar could conceivably still be open to a bit of improvement.

On his sole Newcastle run to date he was a close third in November but has posted improved efforts subsequently, winning handicaps at Kempton and Lingfield (where favourite Kachy sadly broke down) and posting another creditable third behind Straight Right in between.

He was on the go just about all last summer, autumn and into the winter too but now returns following a break and, with Fanshawe in excellent form, might be ready to take his form to the next level.

Posted at 1600 BST on 26/06/20

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