Saturday's Bets of the Day: Selections for horse racing, football and UFC

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Racing

Matt Brocklebank

• Harry’s Bar – 1.50 Newcastle

HARRY’S BAR has ground to make up in terms of bare form in Saturday’s Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle but he’s a sprinter who only does enough and, in spite of a dead impressive all-weather strike-rate (5-11), there’s evidence to suggest he could yet have even more to offer and continue to improve beyond his official rating of 101 now granted the opportunity in Group company.

He’s definitely earned a crack at something decent after really moving through the ranks in the past year – he was rated 74 at the start of June last year – and it shouldn’t be a total surprise he’s only now fulfilling his potential aged five as he was unraced at two and made just the one public appearance as a three-year-old.

He’s from a family trainer James Fanshawe knows well and they do tend to come into their own as five and six-year-olds so Harry’s Bar could conceivably still be open to a bit of improvement.

Ben Linfoot

• Undercover Brother – 4.35 Redcar

UNDERCOVER BROTHER ran a superb race in second on his debut for Les Eyre at Beverley last time out and can go one better at Redcar in the Teesville Handicap (4.35) on Saturday.

The son of Captain Gerrard was rated in the high 60s to mid-70s for a good portion of his career but had dropped to 60 by the time he lined up for the first time in a year 10 days ago.

The five-year-old showed good pace to get across from the widest berth in stall 12 to lead and only Hello Girl got to him in the closing stages.

Up just 2lb, he looks the best-handicapped horse in the field on that evidence and he’s taken to strike under Lewis Edmunds.

Simon Holt

• Virgin Snow in 3.00 Newcastle

VIRGIN SNOW is taken to defy a rise in class in the Betfair Exchange Hoppings Fillies Stakes.

Ed Dunlop's Gleneagles filly is the second foal of the trainer's multiple Group One winner Snow Fairy and took a big step forward when landing a handicap over this trip at Haydock recently on her first outing since last August.

It was hard not to be taken with that success as Virgin Snow had to wait for a run but, once into the clear, she responded instantly to one strike of the whip from Jim Crowley to gallop past the front-running Godolphin filly Beautiful Illusion who had won her previous two starts.

Obviously this is another rise in class and, even though Virgin Snow (now ridden by Ben Curtis) has gone up 6lb for that success, she still has something to find here on ratings with Aloe Vera and Look Around. But, if she's anything like her mother, there could be a great deal of improvement to come and Dunlop has produced a 22% win-rate in the past fortnight.

Football

George Pitts

• Juan Mata to score anytime v Norwich at 22/5

The Red Devils are likely to be much changed for Saturday's FA Cup game at Norwich, and JUAN MATA is the likely starter who catches our eye.

While match sharpness could still be lacking a little, United's impetus and superiority could present Mata with chances in and around the box and he is not a player afraid of trying his luck.

He has had 10 shots in the Premier League in total this term despite more than half of his 18 appearances coming from the bench, and a further 11 efforts in eight Europa League starts.

He started in the FA Cup win at Derby in March, with an impressive five attempts (two on target) and, in two games against Wolves in the fourth round, he had four shots and scored the winning goal in the replay.

The Spaniard could be hungry to make an impact when given the chance here and he is at a shade over 4/1 to score anytime which, considering his expected role, is worth taking.

Joe Townsend

• Wolves to beat Villa and under 2.5 goals

Only Tottenham are above the two West Midlands clubs in the Premier League's BTTS chart, with the duo on 65% - 3% behind Spurs. But it is very, very misleading.

Villa's goalless draw with Sheffield United in the opening match of Project Restart was the first occasion in 14 home matches in all competitions that they have failed to find the net, and they have definitely returned to action as a far more solid unit. To concede only three times in three games is impressive for them given their horrendous defensive record.

Then you have WOLVES, in six of their last seven league games both teams haven't scored. The upturn in form that Nuno's side have enjoyed has been based on tightening things up - seven clean sheets in 10 matches in all competitions.

That recent form is enough for me to back them to keep Villa out with a low-scoring away win considered the likely outcome.

Tom Carnduff

• Jack Harrison to have 3+ total shots in Leeds v Fulham

Leeds are a side with the highest average number of shots per game and that should continue here, even against another side aiming for automatic promotion.

Winger JACK HARRISON posted three shots in that defeat to Cardiff and there's good odds of 2/1 available that he does the same again on Saturday. That Cardiff fixture marked the tenth time he has hit that margin in the league this season.

Harrison has five goals and seven assists on his tally this season and Betfair/Paddy Power provide the best price of 7/2 for a goal anytime against Fulham. Instead, it's worth going for the shorter 2/1 odds on three or more total shots.

UFC

Kieran Cobley

• Poirier v Hooker to go over 2.5 rounds

Poirier has gone the distance in eight of his 32 fights, and has reached the third round in 12 of them, while Hooker has taken eight of his 28 to the scorecards, with 11 reaching the third round.

Already that hints at things taking time to unfold, and you also have to take into account the fact that both men have styles that are much more suited to a longer bout.

Poirier is a patient fighter when he respects his opponent's punching power, which he will have to do given half of Hooker’s 20 wins have come via KO, and he will wait for his opponent to open up before going in for the kill.

The durability of Hooker can’t be underestimated, either. In his last fight he edged a decision win in a bloody war with Paul Felder, and it took Edson Barboza several spinning back kicks to the body followed by a gut punch to put the Kiwi away.

I expect a stand-up war, both men knowing what is at stake. Sit back and enjoy it, optimistic that we should be paid out for a fight which goes past halfway - and maybe even the distance.

Will Dean

• Luis Pena and Kay Hansen both to win

Luis Pena is a physically gifted athlete and has an awkward style that many seem to struggle against.

Worthy has a kill-or-be-killed attitude inside the cage, suffering a knockout or submission in each of his defeats. He thrives off chaos, hoping to lure his opponents into brawls and find the fight-ending blow.

Unfortunately for Worthy, Pena is a disciplined fighter who isn’t afraid to utilise his grappling if he senses danger. He faced an equally lethal knockout artist in his last bout and was able to demonstrate his superior fight IQ, taking the fight to the mat and dominating with approximately 13 minutes of back control.

Pena’s long limbs will be a huge benefit to him in this. Once he gets fights to the floor he can lock his hands together and wrap up body triangles with ease, ensuring he keeps control of his opponent.

The second leg of this double relies on Kay Hansen. At just 20 years old, she has already demonstrated impressive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu abilities. Despite her lack of experience, she is a fighter who knows her strengths, and will shoot for takedowns early and often.

I expect Hansen to spend large portions of the fight on top, eventually securing the submission or winning on points.

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