Timeform Daily Racing Tips | Saturday 15 March

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Kelso

1.15 1 pt – 2 Pull Again Green

This betting market looks excessively lop-sided, as Dare To Shout’s string of seconds suggests he just isn’t especially well treated. It’s true that his effort behind Myretown at this track reads well considering that one’s subsequent Cheltenham heroics, but a more recent defeat to Ned Tanner paints a less positive picture and, at the prices, it’s easy to look elsewhere. There are holes to pick in all the others, including the stable-companions Cadell (less exposed than the others but with some weakish form to his name) and Your Own Story (likeable and on a good mark but likely to find this on the sharp side), but perhaps it’s worth chancing southern raider Pull Again Green. He's got a very ordinary strike rate over fences, but good seconds in more competitive races than this one at Chepstow and Bangor in the autumn show what he can do from this sort of mark, and he’s been given plenty of time to get over a lesser effort at Doncaster when last seen. This is probably his easiest task for a while, and he returns from his break at a time when the Fergal O’Brien yard is very much among the winners.

1.50 No Bet Advised

Wyenot must concede weight all around but she’s a useful mare who’s already seen off her nearest form rival Ottizini this year and is even further clear of the rest on form. She’s unbeaten in three outings under today’s rider Alice Stevens and, what’s more, ran out a wide-margin winner on her sole visit to Kelso. In other words, she’s a justifiably short-priced favourite, making this a race to sit out, not least with a glut of competitive handicaps following on the afternoon.

2.25 1 pt – 2 Sayva

Dominating a field of this size having failed to pull off such tactics against ten rivals at Carlisle last time may seem unrealistic for Sayva on the face of it but the positives at his current price outweigh that apparent negative. Firstly, Sayva is still a novice, with only four runs under his belt and only one in a handicap, which saw him keep all bar a resurgent Coniston George (seemed transformed by headgear and well-run race) at bay having adopted his now-trademark tactics under this same 7-lb claimer Benjamin Macey for the first time. That form looks strong for the grade, as the third was a well-backed handicap debutant for the Parkinson/Smith axis and the fourth a course regular who was bouncing back to form, with a big gap back to the others – not to mention a quick time – adding to that positive view. Kelso can be a slog on testing ground, but it’s very much a speed-favouring course over hurdles during the sort of dry spell experienced lately and Sayva’s run-style can keep him out of the kind of in-running trouble that always seems to rear its head in big fields on this sharp, turning hurdles track.

3.00 1 pt – 5 Game Colours

Game Colours must prove herself on less testing going than previously, but there are others in this with bigger doubts hanging over them in terms of trip and/or ground and there’s just a chance the handicapper hasn’t hit her hard enough for a wide-margin breakthrough success dropped to this trip at Lingfield last month. Granted, assessing the merit of that race with the field returning at such wide intervals isn’t something for too much dogma, but she powered right away from the reopposing Rula Bula and the stopwatch supported a fairly positive view. And when set against how well she’d shaped at around even sharper Fakenham in her first handicap the time before – she did plenty up with the pace in a well-run race and succumbed only to a pair ridden more patiently, one of whom defied the same mark in recent days – there are definite grounds for believing her reassessed mark may well underestimate her, not only on what she’s done subsequently but also what she may yet do given her pattern of race-to-race improvement this season.

3.35 2 pts – 6 Flash du Pistolet

A host of Kelso regulars – four of them have combined for a total of thirteen course wins between them – take their chance here again but it’s a less-exposed rival in Flash du Pistolet whose only two visits here have resulted in a near-miss over hurdles and a promising chasing debut who makes far more appeal against rivals at least two years his senior. As that background might suggest, Flash du Pistolet is the sole novice in the field and, after a stuttering spell (yard mostly under a cloud) following that encouraging start in this sphere, he finally put everything together switched to front-running tactics against fellow first-season chasers at Newcastle at the start of the month. He’s up against a better calibre of opposition here, but the third that day had gone closer in filling the same position since and the signs earlier in his career were that he’d be well up to competing at this sort of level in any case, while even a rise for that recent win has left his BHA mark the right side of 100.

Bangor

1.35 1 pt – 6 The Four Sixes

Nusret is undoubtedly an interesting runner in this, unexposed at the trip and having joined Nicky Henderson from Joseph O’Brien since his most recent outing last summer, but the early shows are understandably cautious. At slightly longer odds it could be worth chancing The Four Sixes. His campaign has been pretty much a write-off so far, with three non-completions from as many outings, but those form figures don’t necessarily tell the whole story, let down by his jumping over fences on the first couple then plainly asked to do too much too soon when pulled up in a handicap hurdle at Newbury last time out. He’s back to a more suitable trip here, is unlikely to face competition for the lead and is back to the same mark as when finding only well-treated ones too good at Ayr and Wetherby last season, Sean Bowen being back in the saddle an added bonus.

Newbury

2.05 1 pt – 2 Alexei

An open-looking race of its type and probably form that will prove worth following, several of these potentially ahead of their marks and no surprise if the market near the off looks completely different to the one on Friday afternoon, especially as overnight rain is forecast and it’s not that easy to gauge how the ground will be riding. It’s with slight trepidation therefore that Alexei is suggested, given that the ground was more testing than previously over hurdles when he disappointed in a listed novice at Exeter on his most recent start. He’d looked a smart prospect when successful on his first two starts over hurdles (both on good ground at Taunton), especially impressive when defying a penalty on the second occasion, and is worth another chance to confirm the highly favourable impression created on those occasions.

2.40 1 pt – 4 Numitor

It’s hard to escape the conclusion that this will be run at an end-to-end gallop, Matterhorn, Saint Segal, Real Stone and Theatre Man all known for forcing the pace. The last-named is interesting after an absence, a breathing operation and an easing of his mark after a couple of underwhelming efforts at the end of last year, some of his form from last season being notably strong, but it’s reasonable to assume he’d have been put in at longer odds and there’s an obvious concern he’ll be involved in a burn-up for the early lead as well. That’s less of a worry for Numitor these days, formerly a one-dimensional front runner but rather more versatile over the last few seasons. He didn’t lead when successful in a couple of veterans handicaps at Wincanton and Cheltenham at the end of 2024, in the latter all out to hold off the next-time-out winner Copperhead and only 3 lb higher here. He turned in a rare poor effort at Market Rasen next time but has been given a couple of months off since and the market has surely overreacted to that one disappointing effort, especially in light of his overall consistent profile.

3.15 1 pt ew – 2 Rockstown Girl

Further proof that the mare population amongst jumpers is in a very healthy state at the minute, last season’s renewal attracting the largest field for this race since 2011 and only one fewer set to line up this year. Siog Geal is undoubtedly interesting upped in trip, her recent performances strongly suggesting that longer distances will unlock improvement, but her price has contracted to such an extent that backing her makes far less appeal now than it did earlier in the week. With enhanced place terms on offer we’d rather take the each-way option at longer odds, and Rockstown Girl fits the bill. She’s got plenty of experience over hurdles yet will be making her handicap debut in this and there are a few pieces of form that suggest she could have a fair opening mark. She beat Dameofthecotswolds (rated 120 by Timeform) fair and square when defying a penalty in a Chepstow novice in October and has faced tough tasks on both subsequent outings, not completely done with when falling three out in the Grade 2 novice at Cheltenham won by Potters Charm on the first occasion. The handy 5-lb claimer Oakley Brown gets the mount for the first time and Rockstown Girl has presumably been kept fresh for this, off more than three months since her previous start.

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