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A change is as good as a rest

1253: Is a proverb that I've never put much stock in; a rest works for me every time.

David Pipe has opted for a change rather than a rest for American Sniper. The top-weight won the first race last year - one of three winners of the race in the last decade for Pipe - and he's only 5lbs higher this time around. He raced in cheekpieces for the first time 12 months ago but the headgear was dispensed with after he failed to back up that run the next twice.

The headgear was back on when he beat Emitom at Newbury and perhaps those subsequent defeats have led Pipe to swop them out for first time blinkers this afternoon. It certainly raises a question mark which is not ideal if you're looking to get with American Sniper for all that question may arguably be built into his price which is around the 8/1 mark.

Rebel Intention's profile is not wholly dissimilar in as much as he was in good form this time last year, winning in August and November, only to lose his way over the winter. The handicapper responded accordingly and he started the campaign off 96 (won off 95 last year) with a good second at Stratford before winning at Kempton. He's up 5lbs to 104 and it could be that his upturn in fortunes has more to do with his rating than the time of year or his well-being but he's in-form and has his conditions and, I think, there are worse 25/1 shots around. It's the sort of price where you might be prepared to chance your arm in a contest that might not be quite as deep as the numbers suggest, particularly with those extra places on offer.

And they're off

1229: Or at least they were but not at Cheltenham where we're still around 45 minutes away from the first.

The opening races have concluded at both Newcastle and Punchestown though - won by Rebecca Menzies and Gordon Elliott - and the result from Southwell's opener will soon be in too.

It is a bright and sunny autumnal day which does raise the question whether that glowing orb will cause any problems at Cheltenham. Hopefully not as it's always unsatisfactory to watch the obstacles in the straight being dolled off as it markedly changes the nature of the races but it's not a problem that is easy, or even possible, to solve.

She's on the case

1207: It's not the Royal Detective Mira accompanied by Mikku and Chikku which is a shame as they always solve the riddle but Sky Bet have asked Alex Hammond to find the answer to their 'Money Back As Cash' race which is the Glenfarclass Cross-Country Handicap Chase and you can find out who Hammond thinks is worth backing by listening to the tweet below.

(Can it still be called a tweet? Is it now a X? Does anyone bar the new US government's efficiency tsar care?)

I have little to offer on the Cross-Country race which is normally a contest I skip straight past but I will be keeping a close eye on Mister Coffey who in a fit of mid-winter madness I backed for the Kim Muir last year.

I was Mafeking relieved (as someone of an older vintage than me used to say regularly) when he wasn't confirmed for the race a few weeks later.

I was just checking his ground preferences (which I thought was for good but isn't backed up by form so we'll ignore that) when I saw this quote from his trainer early in his career, saying 'he is going to be a spectacular horse'.

Life doesn't always work out the way we think it will.

Warming up

1150: The Racing TV team have started their live introduction to a background of PA mumblings and dog whistles (literal ones) for it is Countryside Day so we can look forward to the sight of the hounds running down the track later (assuming they still do that) and one going rogue and running through the crowd to general amusement and delight. It is always a fun and relaxed atmosphere at this meeting, like the first day of the holidays.

Tom Stanley has just interviewed Michael Shinners of Sky Bet but the pair got distracted by a spider web - and spider - on Stanley's beard and they, and I, struggled to get back on track after that. I'm not sure there was anything very revealing but Shinners did report Sky Bet have seen some decent money for Valgrand who has taken over at the top of the market from Potters Charm.

Valgrand was a ready winner from Gale Mahler last time but the mare was found to have come into season and didn't give her true running. It's interesting to read the post-race quotes from Dan Skelton that he thought 'the mare would be very hard to beat' and Valgrand is worse off at the weights with her this afternoon.

There seems to be confidence behind him in the market but if Gale Mahler is back in top form and Skelton's original assessment was on the mark then this could turn out to be more than a match.

Festival pointers

1138: I know, I know. Talk of the Cheltenham Festival should be banished this far out but the November meeting has been an historically good pointer to events in March.

(Is it time for one of those financial services' warnings? I.e. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, nor a reliable indicator of future results or performance.)

However, a decent number of horses have doubled up at both meetings and today's obvious candidate would be Jonbon who should be a leading fancy for the Champion Chase if all goes well this afternoon and in the interim. If Conflated wins the cross-country that is another who would look to have leading claims in the spring while connections of those involved in the novice races will obviously be hopeful.

Three of the last four winners of the novices' chase have all returned in March and that would have been four had misfortune not befallen Broadway Boy the day before he was due to run. The Real Whacker famously won the Brown Advisory but Threeunderthrufive cut little ice while The Big Breakaway did finish third, albeit some 17 lengths or so behind Monkfish.

It's not just winners at this meeting which have a tidy Festival record with those making the frame also going on to enjoy their share of success so although March may seem a long way away with the deep, dark bleak midwinter still in front of us it will be worth keeping a close eye on what happens over the next three days.

Daily Jury

1119: You can now access Timeform's long-established tipping subscription service, Jury Daily, through Sporting Life Plus.

Get the best bets on today’s racing from the Timeform Jury! They scour the markets daily to find the best selections, at the best prices, and have rewarded followers with over 900 points profits since its launch.

When logged into Sporting Life Plus, you’ll be able to view their selections, listen to their rationale and advised stakes every day at 11.15am, unless they decide there are no viable betting options.

Sky Bet are also guaranteeing the best available price for one hour following publication. Click on the image above to hear the latest advice.

Take two

1107: Two bets for me today which I'll get out of the way now and bury deep in the blog.

I had expected / hoped to see some money around for Clap Of Thunder who makes his handicap debut in the last but none has been forthcoming which does make me a little uneasy and similar comments apply to the other runner too but in for a penny.....

Clap Of Thunder won very easily at Ascot in a modest race having been a disappointing favourite in a better race at Chepstow. Eyes not ears should be the order of the day but it was still interesting to hear Sam Twiston-Davies's post-race debrief where he said:

"I put him up early in the season as my horse to follow so when he trailed in a very poor fourth at Chepstow I was really questioning my judgement but the way he's gone through the race there and the way he's won is the sort of horse I thought we had so now hopefully we can ignore Chepstow.

"With the horse coming out it did look like a nice opportunity for him but most importantly he jumped nicely, travelled well and won as he liked so hopefully keep progressing."

He did go on to mention that further progress is expected when Clap Of Thunder jumps a fence and he could be vulnerable to some of the speedier ex-Flat horses on this turning track with decent ground but he's a double figure price and there's an extra place or two on offer with some firms. His bumper form is pretty decent with a second to Bill Joyce and a midfield finish behind Royal Infantry taking the eye while it also encouraged me that the Chepstow novice he ran in was won last year by Donnacha who went on to finish a good second in this contest.

I will always clutch at straws.

The first also looks nice and competitive and if you've read the Punting Pointers copy you'll know there's been a good punt on Whatsupwithyou who is eminently opposable at his current odds. He would be an unusual winner of this race in so much as it tends to be won by younger, up and coming hurdlers as opposed to relative veterans who have come back to a good mark with five-year-olds winning seven of the last eight runnings.

Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos represent that age group and both, somewhat remarkably, have won their last five. In contrast, Tune In A Box ran like a drain in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow but I'd be happy enough to put a line through that run given he's a double figure price here. He'd gone on a similar winning sequence last season, culminating with an impressive victory in a Punchestown handicap hurdle and although the handicapper has duly hammered him for that success, Tune In A Box looks capable of coping with his new mark.

More straw clutching but..... Tom Lacey also trained the favourite for the Punchestown contest in Montregard, he was a pretty disappointing favourite at Wetherby (over fences) in October but bounced back to win at Market Rasen yesterday offering some encouragement that Tune In A Box may be able to follow suit.

Again, there are extra places on offer and if he manages to fill one of them it may just be enough to resist temptation of dipping into the pool for the intervening four races.

'The only show in town'

1036: The Punting Pointers team of David Massey and Rory Delargy have put their heads together and come up with two selections for the Cheltenham card at rather more appealing prices than some of those listed below.

The duo also give a rundown on four of the six races which is as informative as ever although sometimes the pair have to agree to disagree as is the case in the finale.

Check out their thoughts by clicking on the image above.

The declarations for Sunday's card are in and the Greatwood Hurdle has held-up quite well. The presence of Dysart Enos adds a layer of intrigue, particularly after Fergal O'Brien described her as the best handicapped horse in Britain and Ireland something which I can't imagine the late Captain Tim Forster ever said, not in public at any rate.

She does have 14 rivals up against her on her handicap bow and they include another lightly raced contender in Be Aware who represents the Skeltons. It's always a good handicap and this year's renewal should have a little more zest to it with the potentially top-class favourite going to post; she should also ensure that the race has a decent each-way shape to it if taking short prices about a relatively unproven mare is not your thing.

Put the Boot in

1025: The early Paddy Power market moves have been published to X. There is nothing monumental which is a shame but they are as follows:

1310 Plaisir De Flos 4/1 from 9/2

Fergal O'Brien trained runner who has won his last five, 36lbs higher than for the first of them but still looked to have something left in the locker when winning at Carlisle last month.

1345 Springwell Bay 6/4 from 13/8

Decent staying hurdler from Jackdaws Castle who made a winning chase debut at Chepstow although the runner-up didn't do a huge amount for the form in the Rising Stars at Wincanton which was won by the third home, Boombawn. Mixed messages.

1420 Boothill 8/1 from 17/2

One of Mr Linfoot's two selections. Does he qualify as a free hit at Jonbon?

1455 Conflated 3/1 from 7/2

Gordon Elliott has enjoyed plenty of success in the Cross Country races and this smart chaser (only one and a quarter lengths off Jonbon in April) could defy top-weight if taking to this discipline although you have to go back to Balthazar King in 2014 to find a winner who carried more than 10-12.

1530 Valgrand 5/4 from 6/4

The Skelton stable is ticking along quite nicely. He's already won at Cheltenham this season and there's little on the ratings between the top two in a race which appears to be a match.

1600 Fasol 4/1 from 9/2

Decent stayer on the flat in France, just the two starts over hurdles for Paul Nicholls but he was given a flat rating of 101 when representing Ditcheat at Royal Ascot and runs off 108 here; could turn out to be very well handicapped.

Good morning

1010: Good morning and welcome.

A new day has dawned and it's an exciting one for the jockeys, not just because it's the first day of the November meeting but also as it's the first day of the David Power Jockeys' Cup which I'm sure you've read all about already. It will be a nice little earner.

The going, as Jon Pullin explains below, is good (good to soft in places) but there are already four non-runners in the opening contest (just as well it's not the second or third), including Phantomofthepoints who was flagged up by Ben Linfoot in his overview of the meeting but who didn't make the cut for today's tipping column. That still leaves 16 runners in the handicap hurdle so, hopefully, those each-way terms won't have been affected.

All in all the field sizes have held up pretty well given the lack (!) of rain over the last few weeks - although it's still pretty muddy in my neck of the woods - with neither the Shloer nor the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices' Chase historically attracting large fields and we do have a bona fide top-notcher in the Shloer with Jonbon making his reappearance.

He has a respected rival, too, in the shape of Edwardstone who finished runner-up to Jonbon in this race last year but got closer to him when last seen in April when a four length third in the Celebration Chase at Sandown and Tom Cannon is hopeful that the better ground may enable him to get closer still. Jonbon is deservedly short but does have a race on his hands.

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