Our man takes a look at the action at Kempton this evening, recommending two bets, and also has two horses to put in your tracker.
All-Weather Angle: Wednesday, February 21
1pt win Eleanor Cross in 7.30 Kempton at 9/2 (General)
1pt win Natacata in 8.30 Kempton at 7/1 (General)
There is an eight-race card at Kempton this evening and there are a couple of horses who are of interest to me.
First up is the Andrew Balding-trained ELEANOR CROSS, who is a well-bred filly that has some good form in the book, running her best race to date when narrowly denied back in novice company over a mile and a half at Lingfield earlier this month.
She ran a cracker on that occasion, just succumbing to another well-bred type in the closing stages, though she looked the likeliest winner with a furlong to go, edging to the front only to be outbattled close home – she traded at 1.05 in running on Betfair.
Eleanor Cross travelled well throughout that race, though, still running away with her jockey coming down the hill inside the final three furlongs and getting a perfect run through into the straight. It is a little disappointing she wasn’t able to finish the job that day, but the winner is seemingly well regarded, and I think it is form to take a positive view of.
Eleanor Cross made her handicap debut in the Winter Oaks at the same track on her previous start and, while she was unable to land a blow on that occasion, it was a deep race, much more competitive than the one she finds herself in here, and she is now 2 lb lower in the weights.
She has also run in behind some nice types on her previous starts in maiden and novice company and I think she is a horse who is more than capable of winning races from this sort of mark. An obvious danger is James Fanshawe’s handicap debutante Throubi, but I think Eleanor Cross is fairly priced around 11/2 for a race of this nature, and am also of the opinion that the more galloping nature of Kempton, with its longer straight, will suit her run style better.
When looking at the staying handicap which concludes the card yesterday I had two horses on my shortlist, namely Legacy Power and NATACATA, but I was very surprised to see the former originally put in as short as 6/5.
She is drifting back out this morning but she is still much, much shorter than I would have her in the market so she is readily passed over.
Natacata has a different profile and is still a maiden, but she has bits and pieces of form that make her of interest, and she has caught the eye on a number of occasions since joining Jane Chapple-Hyam.
She went like the best horse at the weights at Southwell last time, always up close to the pace and tanking her way through the race, but she probably got racing to far from home with the eventual fourth who dropped away in the straight, and that set the race up perfectly for the reopposing Man of Riddles to come through and pick her up inside the final furlong.
Man of Riddles has since run well in defeat at Lingfield since, but I’m of the opinion that Natacata can reverse that form (she is only 2 lb better off at the weights) now in a race which will more than likely be run at a steadier gallop.
They often don’t go much of a clip in staying races at Kempton and looking over the field, there isn’t an abundance of pace on. Given that Natacata appears to have plenty of natural speed that shouldn’t pose a problem to her and she will likely be well positioned in a race which may test speed more than stamina.
Admittedly, she is a long-standing maiden, which is a slight concern, but she hasn’t been with this yard all that long, and I’m sure she has the ability to win a race of this nature on the all-weather from a mark in the low 60s.
Two who caught the eye on the clock
A quick look at Harry Brown’s form figures from last season don’t make him look an inspiring horse to follow, but he was set some stiff tasks on turf, and he also shaped better than the bare result on more than one occasion.
Furthermore, all of his wins have come on an artificial surface, and he took a big step back in the right direction on his recent return at Wolverhampton 11 days ago, but he was just unable to reel in a bang in-form front runner who received another first-class ride.
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Harry Brown travelled well on his first start for four months, racing in the second half of the field and picking up well from his position in the straight, staying on well but the winner had already flown. That effort can be marked up further when taking sectionals into account as Harry Brown ran the final two furlongs fastest of all (22.45).
He is entitled to strip fitter for that effort and he is a horse to back next time if kept to the all-weather, with Newcastle appealing as a track which will see his run-style to maximum effect.
Al Rufaa looks another excellent purchase for Daniel & Claire Kubler and he very much caught the eye on his most recent run over an extended nine furlongs at Wolverhampton on Friday.
He confirmed himself a horse to remain very interested in, failing to settle back over a longer trip and faring much the best of those who raced more towards the rear. Al Rufaa still stayed on all the way to the line after probably expending a little too much energy, and his closing sectional backs up the visual impression which he created.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsHe was the only horse in the field to run the final two furlongs in under 23 seconds (22.66) and deserves extra credit for doing so in a well-run race. Al Rufaa will probably always split opinion due to his run style, which can leave him a hostage to fortune, but there is no doubting that he is a well-handicapped horse.
Interestingly, he holds an entry in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster next month and that race appeals as one that will suit him down to the ground, a straight mile on a galloping track which will be run at a good pace.
He may struggle to get a run from his current mark of 89, however, but the Spring Mile is another option. Either way, he is up to winning more races between now and then on the all-weather under the right circumstances, and he would make plenty of appeal to me either back at Kempton or at Newcastle when a good pace is on the cards.
Published at 0855 GMT on 21/02/24
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