Workday Charity Open: PGA Tour betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

4pts win Justin Thomas at 11/1

1.5pts e.w. Marc Leishman at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Harold Varner at 90/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Max Homa at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. K.H. Lee at 300/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

And so the third season of the Bryson DeChambshow came to an end not with a cliffhanger, but with closure: victory, and an emphatic one at that, in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Once the scientist, now the strongman, the sport's top-ranked prat demonstrated that, thanks to his single-minded dedication and abundance of talent, he might as well be its top-ranked player. What a remarkable achievement, to transform oneself in the way he has; to find the weak spot in this sport's armour, dig the knife in and twist it for good measure.

Now that the Californian colossus is taking a break - though, it surely will not be a real break - the PGA Tour needs another storyline, and to some extent it has one ready-made in the birth of the Workday Charity Open, at Muirfield Village Country Club in Ohio.

Those who keep half an eye on the sport may assume, what with the course, that this isn't a new event - that the Memorial Tournament has been rebranded. That is not the case. Instead, the Tour is here for a two-week stay, back-to-back tournaments taking place across the same course, a Jack Nicklaus classic we've all come to know as much for the reputation of its clubhouse milkshakes as its pristine turf which may appear slightly less so once two fields' worth of golfers have stepped on it.

All of this is a sign of the times, and come the end of week two, I suspect it will all feel perfectly normal, just as the absence of spectators appears not to have made too much of a difference. Four events in, we've had four pretty obvious winners, and very little to suggest we need to reconsider how we might approach things. They used to say 'these guys are good', and it seems they're very good at focusing on the task at hand and adjusting, adapting, as this sport has always demanded.

There's no denying fields have been getting a little weaker, as the elite players plot a path to the PGA Championship, and it's fair to say the Tour would've expected better for this first look at Muirfield. DeChambeau is a former course winner, Rory McIlroy loves it here, and nobody has enjoyed more success in the Memorial than Tiger Woods, yet all three sit it out. So too does Dustin Johnson, who ought to have won here in 2017, while in-form Tyrrell Hatton and Webb Simpson also take a breather.

What's left is a series of awkward questions at the top of the market, such as can I really trust Hideki Matsuyama at 16/1? Tentatively, I've come down on the side of 'no' and will instead give JUSTIN THOMAS the chance to atone for his missteps in the Travelers Championship two weeks ago.

Thomas was vying for favouritism there on the back of two top-10 finishes to kick-off summer, but from the moment he fanned a wedge out to the right of the first green, it just looked like one of those weeks. Somehow, his iron play just went AWOL for a round and a half, and he once again couldn't work out the greens at River Highlands.

One of the first things you learn in this awful game is to trust your eyes, and I watched that performance with the words 'write-off' in mind. It made no sense, except that this sport is confusing, and Thomas is probably the one genuinely elite player who is most prone to an out-of-the-blue shocker.

He's also the one genuinely elite player who wins more than the others, at least he has been over the last few years, and that's at the front of my mind against the likes of Matsuyama (last win 2017), Patrick Cantlay (two in total), Xander Schauffele (no win since 2018) and even Brooks Koepka, whose iron play needs to improve again if he's to confirm his return to form.

Thomas's iron play is generally reliable, and Muirfield Village has long been talked about as a second-shot golf course, in part thanks to its designer, Nicklaus, whose layouts have always been placed under that umbrella. What's certainly true is that the roll-of-honour at the course, if not the event, is packed full of quality ball-strikers, to the extent that twice in the last six years a player has putted worse than the field average and yet walked off with the title.

Even the shock Memorial champions, David Lingmerth and William McGirt, figured highly in strokes-gained tee-to-green at the time of their victories. Lingmerth, at 54th for the 2015 season, is the worst-ranked champion in strokes-gained tee-to-green for many a year, and a glance through last year's corresponding table shows Cantlay at fifth, Adam Scott at fourth. They fought out the finish here, as have elite ball-strikers like Kyle Stanley and Ben An in the past.

Thomas is just about the best iron player in the sport when he's on, and the driver looked very good at the Travelers. It's those strengths which powered top-10 finishes here in 2017 and 2018, and we can ignore last year - he was returning following a wrist injury and hadn't played since the Masters.

He'll need to leave behind his last start, and I did write there that his victories have tended to follow a top-10 finish. That's why it comes back to trusting your eyes rather than a set of numbers, and in this case I believe he's likely to turn up here in the sort of form which saw him bang there at Colonial and Harbour Town. This is both a weaker field and a more suitable course, and he is fully entitled to be a strong favourite.

All of my selections for this come from a similar place. One way or another, this is about hitting the ball well, for all that the rough has been cut a little shorter and the greens are expected to be a little slower than we're used to, with some different tee-boxes also in operation. Muirfield Village has reasonably wide fairways but penal rough, and its heavily-contoured greens have always drawn comparisons to Augusta, where approach play is king.

Through that comparison I thought long and hard about siding with Jordan Spieth, whose ball-striking is improving and whose record here is strong, but conditions may not quite play to his strengths. Instead, and at the same price, I'm keen to side with another course specialist in MARC LEISHMAN.

Coming out of lockdown, Leishman was one to be a little wary of as he told AFP of his concerns given that his wife has suffered with a life-threatening illness in the past. More so than most, it seemed, Leishman was tentative in returning to the course, and perhaps that's why he's making just his third start of a possible five here in Ohio.

It may be that he remains a little unsure but two starts, four weeks, and a general feeling that the PGA Tour has done a decent job ought to have eased any concerns, and I hope he's now able to focus on a fortnight at a course he simply loves.

Leishman took a little while to figure out Muirfield Village, but he's now made the cut in 10 of his 11 visits, and has two top-five finishes in his last five. In four of those five visits he's ranked inside the top 20 for strokes-gained tee-to-green, and he's talked about how wider fairways have helped him to work his way round this championship test.

It's significant that the Aussie has a win and a runner-up finish to his name this year, the first at Torrey Pines and the second at Bay Hill. Of all the courses played from January to March, those two are the two on which he's enjoyed the most success; of all the courses played since the resumption, the same is true of Muirfield Village.

That's partly why I'm not worried about modest form figures (MC-58), but the main point to underline here is that it's on the back of such seemingly modest golf that he's so often popped up and won. Just look at his recent high finishes and what they were preceded by: 42-2, 28-1, WD-3, MC-3, MC-5, 43-4. All told, six of his seven victories have followed a quiet week, including a couple of missed cuts and nothing better than 21st save for one exception.

That tells us quite a lot, and really all we need for the Tour-leader in strokes-gained approach is an upturn on the greens, which has been a given here of late. It was that which prompted those two big finishes earlier in the year, and again we see the up-and-down nature of his game: at the Sony Open, his putting was awful; next time, he won the Farmers largely thanks to the putter.

Of course, what I'm arguing here is that he's hard to predict, while simultaneously predicting good things. The point really is that Leishman is overpriced at his best, and that he's more likely to produce it here, at Muirfield Village, than just about anywhere. Besides which, he was bang in the mix at halfway last time out, and concerns over his short-game are allayed by the fact he led the field around-the-greens here last June.

There's been predictable and understandable money for An, another who loves it here, and he was certainly on the shortlist. On closer inspection, however, nothing about his play since the restart says he's in the form he'll need to win his first PGA Tour title, whereas that's not the case with HAROLD VARNER.

I put up Varner last week in the hope he'd find something on the greens, which he did not. That was always the risk, as he's been hitting his ball well for a long time; lo and behold, he missed a succession of short putts on Thursday and Friday and then stood still at the weekend, making just two bogeys but taking far too few of the chances he created.

Still, the overall message remains positive as he ranked eighth tee-to-green and third in greens hit, and I'm not at all surprised he wants to keep playing while demonstrating such control over his ball. Like Viktor Hovland, this will be his fifth start in five weeks, and we have to acknowledge that could be a negative - although Varner held the lead during the final round at Riviera in the spring, which was also his fifth start in succession.

Key to giving him another spin is the switch from a shootout to this much tougher test, even if the rough is indeed shorter than usual. And while the Rocket Mortgage Classic has now been dominated by good putting (and big-hitting this time, it must be said) in each of its two renewals, that simply isn't the case here. If Jason Dufner and Matsuyama can putt badly and win, I don't see any reason why Varner can't at least contend.

In terms of previous at the course, that's also encouraging. He was 57th here on debut but sat fifth on nine-under at halfway, and then on his second attempt he ranked second in strokes-gained approach en route to a top-20. And, while Varner did miss the cut last year, remember that came in his first start following the US PGA, where he played in the final group and was bloodied by Bethpage on the way to a round of 81.

Given that he's improved since to the point that he's in the form of his life from a statistical perspective, there's every reason to hope for a similarly top-class ball-striking display to that which he produced on his penultimate visit here. With slower greens perhaps helping ease fears over clumsiness from inside 10 feet, and the further little snippet that he was actually born in Ohio, Varner gets the benefit of the doubt.

Having mentioned at the top that the PGA Tour needs a storyline, the man who could write the most remarkable one is probably Bud Cauley.

Two years ago, Cauley missed the cut here and was then involved in a serious car accident on the Friday night. When the injuries sustained were added up they included a collapsed lung, five broken ribs and a fractured leg, as the career of this one-time prodigy suffered another unfortunate blow. And yet, it could have been so much worse.

It's to Cauley's immense credit that he came back last year, in the midst of a slump, and finished ninth, the power of the mind on full display. That's not his only good form at the course - several years earlier he led the field in approach play but putted abysmally to finish 38th - and his latest return to Jack's Place could yet end in a fairy-tale, or at least something resembling one.

In terms of writing those headlines, remember that Cauley chose to withdraw from his latest start at the Travelers despite a solid first round, when playing partner Denny McCarthy tested positive for coronavirus. If you are one of those lunatics who believes in the sporting gods (here's looking at you, Hammer), then Cauley will surely be considered worthy of a small bet at 125/1.

For the more tangible reasons, including his brilliant iron play, I did consider him myself. But there are more compelling cases to be made for RUSSELL HENLEY and MAX HOMA, the next two into the staking plan.

Henley was sixth here on his debut, an excellent, rounded performance from a rookie, and has since gone on to win at PGA National - another course designed by Nicklaus.

Subsequent visits to Muirfield Village have been less lucrative but no less promising, with an eight-under par weekend in 2019 seeing him climb from the cut-line to a share of 29th. Clearly, he's very fond of the course and for all his occasional struggles, three wins since he earned membership is a good return for one so rarely near the top of the betting.

What I really like about Henley, however, is his recent play. Going back to the spring, when he perhaps ought to have won the Honda Classic again, he's been hitting the ball as well as he ever has. He ranked second tee-to-green there and second again at the Travelers last time, with his only recent failure coming on his return start at Harbour Town, a course which will expose any rust in anyone.

At 34th in strokes-gained tee-to-green for the season, his quality iron play powering that ranking, he's striking it well enough to win and it's unfortunate that somehow his putter has become a problem, given that it always used to be his main weapon.

Therein lies the risk and he'd probably prefer to chance his arm on bermuda greens rather than a blend of bentgrass and poa annua, and yet on his last visit here he did rank 11th in putting. I would take that, because married with his long-game stats from River Highlands, it would make him a serious title contender. If only it were that simple.

As for Homa, I really like Quail Hollow when it comes to corresponding courses, and he won there last year, as did Thomas back in 2017.

Homa had been building on that platform in the spring only for the suspension of the season to stop him in his tracks, and he's struggled a little since the resumption. However, take a closer look and you'll see that there's only one problem. Yes, it is the putter.

Except Homa isn't a bad putter, indeed he was excellent from January through to March, and it's only these small, fixable problems on the greens which hide some really encouraging play throughout the Charles Schwab (MC on the number), the Heritage (41st despite among the best ball-striking in the field) and the Travelers (MC by two).

At River Highlands last time he was bogey-free in round two and in fact for 34 of the 36 holes, and Friday was his best day with the putter since February. If he can build on it, then there's no reason he can't in turn build on 37th place here last year, his first look at the course, and one which saw him fire his approaches to birdie range throughout the week.

One further note on Homa is that he shot a round of 63 at the Nicklaus-designed course used in The AmEx back in January, and Nicklaus ties were very much on my mind when researching this preview - hence looking at Billy Horschel and Gary Woodland more than once.

Such avenues inevitably lead to Jhonattan Vegas, who has won twice at the Nicklaus-designed Glen Abbey, as well as once in the AmEx, and who has also placed at PGA National in the Honda Classic. The trouble is he's been here many times now and averages in excess of 73, never ending the day better than 28th on the leaderboard. For all that he's playing really well at the moment, he's hard to fancy.

I wonder whether having coach John Tillery with him last week really does explain a better performance from Rickie Fowler, a habitual contender here lately, and could argue that these slower greens might help Corey Conners. Emiliano Grillo also ticks boxes and that's the profile in a nutshell: look for players who ought to set up their share of chances, and then hope they can take them.

My final selection then is K.H. LEE, who is really interesting at 300/1 generally and as big as 350/1 in places.

Now, selections at similar odds have not quite delivered lately, but Richy Werenski missed a place by just three shots last week, Doc Redman outplayed his odds to finish 21st before that, and I really am quite hopeful that Lee can do better still and at least threaten the very top of the leaderboard.

That's certainly what he did on his debut at the course last year, leading at halfway and then stretching clear early in the third round. At 13-under, had he played par golf to the clubhouse on Sunday night he would've shared fourth; instead, the situation appeared to get to him, he became clumsy, and he finished 37th alongside Homa.

Already, we've an eye-catcher, and then we can throw in the fact that his best PGA Tour performance - at least in terms of finishing position versus field strength - is seventh place at the Honda, played at a Nicklaus course and offering very definite links to this one for all that they look quite different.

Finally, Lee ranked second in strokes-gained approach last week. That he finished in a share of 45th tells us he's been struggling with the putter, but once more that's just a risk I'm generally willing to take on board, particularly at the prices on offer.

As far as picking up where he left off in Detroit goes, the best comparison might be last February, when his irons were brilliant at Riviera (first) and he maintained something like that standard across his next two starts, culminating in seventh place at PGA National. If his irons are as good as they were last week, or indeed back then, we should at least have some fun. Or else the exact opposite of fun.

Posted at 2000 BST on 06/07/20

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