Star golf tipster Ben Coley has five selections for the Austrian Open this week including talented Frenchman Antoine Rozner at 40/1.
Recommended bets
2pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Max Kieffer at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Lorenzo Scalise at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Marc Warren at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard to lead after R1 at 60/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Two weeks ahead of the British Masters and 123 days since the end of the Qatar Masters, the European Tour takes its first, tentative steps out of lockdown in this week's Austrian Open.
This co-sanctioned event, played at Diamond Country Club, is an addition to a schedule ransacked by the coronavirus pandemic. It will count for both the European Tour and Challenge Tour rankings, and the field is more the latter than the former, with just a small handful of established, classy players helping shape the top of the market.
One of them is Joost Luiten, who has won and never finished worse than seventh in just five starts at this course. That says much about the Dutchman and his reliability, particularly just below the top level to which he's yet to fully graduate. It also says something about the venue: Diamond Country Club is to be picked apart, rather than outmuscled, as the likes of Richard McEvoy and Mikko Korhonen would confirm.
When we last saw him, Luiten was ticking over nicely, his frustrations with the putter notwithstanding. Tenth in Oman followed by 21st in Qatar is a line of form which puts him clear of all bar Thomas Detry and Adri Arnaus, and his experience here gives him the edge. Had the event taken place one week after Qatar, perhaps he'd have been 5/1 - are quotes of 13/2 enough to take on board the risks which have now been attached?
Probably not is my answer, and of the three mentioned I'd lean towards Arnaus. In a long-term sense there's probably not much to choose between him and Detry, and their small hints of form over the last few weeks are comparable. Detry shot 65 to win an 18-hole charity event organised by Andy Sullivan, while Arnaus has been in the USA, playing well without quite managing to qualify for a couple of events on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Still, neither man is exactly the right type for this, whereas ANTOINE ROZNER sure looks to be, and this talented Frenchman is by far the most appealing bet here.
Rozner was among the stars of last year's Challenge Tour class, winning back-to-back events in the spring, and already he's gone mighty close to winning a better event than this one on the European Tour. Needing birdie at the concluding par-five to take the Mauritius Open title, he made par, only to lose a play-off to an eagle by the talented Rasmus Hojgaard.
In the six events he's played since earning his card, Rozner has made six cuts, and while he's impressed in various ways it's his driver which looks to underpin his good scoring. That's ideal here, at a parkland course which has produced leaderboards littered with accurate players and where it's not necessarily about piling up birdies.
All that would've made him among my strongest fancies here at what looks a generous price, regardless of what he'd been up to during lockdown. As it is, he happened to win what looked a particularly strong, 54-hole event in his native France recently, beating Gregory Havret in a play-off in a perfect pipe-opener for this.
Assessing the worth of minor tour form is difficult, and it's best to be cautious, but I can't find much that would compare with the Training Tournament Landes Solidarité, which attracted a field packed with the best golfers in France, minus Benjamin Hebert and Mike Lorenzo Vera. Among those well behind Rozner were Romain Langasque, Alex Levy, Romain Wattel, Julien Guerrier, Robin Sciot-Siegrist, Matthieu Pavon, Robin Roussel, Gregory Bourdy and Sebastian Gros, with Spain's Adrian Otaegui finishing seventh.
Excuse the translated quotes, but here's what Rozner had to say after capitalising on Havret's late collapse.
"I was especially happy to find a great level of play last week. I did not come especially to win. I mainly thought of finding my range in competition and hitting (shots) under pressure. I was just very happy to be able to play golf again. But it is certain that I could not have dreamed of a better recovery with this victory.
"For my part, I hit a lot of good shots and I am very happy to have held (firm) like that under pressure. It's a good sign for the resumption of the season. I'm going to play the Austrian Open. There will not be the best European players and there will certainly be room for a good result by playing well."
Rounds of 68, 64 and 66 across a trio of tree-lined courses could serve as the ideal preparation for a trip to Austria, and Rozner is taken to upstage the favourites and win his first European Tour title.
As well as working out what these players, few of whom are genuinely famous and easy to follow, have been doing on the golf course, working out just how tricky their travel arrangements might have been is another complicating factor.
Arnaus for instance has been in the USA, so presumably has some kind of exemption to fly into Austria, or else perhaps he flew home to Spain and made the journey from there. Either way it can't have been easy, albeit it's probably still been less stressful than a 1000-mile road trip for Connor Syme.
The young Scot finished second here in the 2018 Shot Clock Masters and has a nice profile for the event in general, but that trip to Austria, which he had called a 'nightmare' before even setting off, combined with a short price, is enough to look elsewhere.
There should've been no such issues for MAX KIEFFER, and the German is the other solid candidate from towards the head of the betting who I want on-side.
Kieffer has never quite kicked on since losing that marathon play-off for the Open de Espana, but he remains a neat and tidy player, and it's that which marks him down as a perfect candidate for this course, and this field, under these circumstances.
He was bang in the mix at halfway in both the 2015 and 2017 editions of the Lyoness Open, played here, before skipping the Shot Clock Masters - no surprise given he's among the slower players around.
In 2015 the finish was fought out by Chris Wood, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Matt Fitzpatrick, while the 2017 renewal went to subsequent PGA Tour winner Dylan Frittelli, so to be hanging around with that calibre of player tells you Kieffer ought to be in the mix here if producing similar golf.
There was just about enough in his performances in the spring, including cuts made in Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar, to suggest Kieffer might be able to do just that - especially when you consider his sole main-tour win, in India, came in the first event of the 2012 Challenge Tour season following 14 weeks on the sidelines.
As one of the most accurate drivers on the circuit, whose journey here ought to have been smooth, he gets the vote.
Lorenzo Gagli looks rock-solid but short enough, and I prefer to take a chance on namesake and compatriot LORENZO SCALISE at a three-figure price.
Soon to turn 25, this Italian youngster carved out an excellent amateur career at the University of Tennessee, finished 11th in the Italian Open as a 20-year-old, won very quickly on the Alps Tour, finished a solid 30th on the Challenge Tour last year, and was achingly close to full European Tour rights when missing out narrowly at Qualifying School.
Still improving, he began 2020 with a share of 15th in a quality SA Open won by Branden Grace, where he drove it well, and then went on to make all three cuts as the Challenge Tour campaign began in South Africa. It looked like a solid platform which has been kicked from under his feet by the crisis which forced the suspension of the sport.
While many return to action here at a course they don't know, for Scalise that isn't the case. Like Syme, he played in the European Amateur Team Championship at Diamond three summers ago, finishing second in the individual portion. Syme was just behind, Arnaus a long way back, and between them was a certain Viktor Hovland.
Syme said that experience was key to his effort in the Shot Clock Masters, and the week Scalise spent here as part of the Italian team should be similarly beneficial to him. That combined with his potential, the way he started the year, and the fact he was 10th when last teeing it up in Austria, make him more interesting than most at around the 125/1 mark.
Oscar Lengden and Anton Karlsson both played pretty well in a Nordic Golf League event last week and could put that sharpener to use, while Sami Valimaki was among the stars of spring and also arrives on the back of a competitive, winning run-out in his native Finland.
They're all respected along with the accurate Matt Baldwin, who has plenty of European Tour experience and has shown up well in some small events in England lately. Still, he too may well have faced a nightmare journey, with no flights from the UK to Austria, and at 80/1 I'm not sure there's much juice in the price.
Such concerns clearly also apply where MARC WARREN is concerned, but at 150/1 this multiple European Tour winner is worth chancing.
At his best, Warren is right up there on the heels of the standout players in the field, and while that form is a little while ago, there have actually been some positives since the back-end of last season.
Although unable to produce the heroics of previous years and keep hold of his full playing rights, Warren did emerge from a miserable run to sit second after day one of the KLM Open, before three solid rounds had him 33rd through 54 holes of the Portugal Masters, and he then made the cut at Q School.
That's not a lot to go on, but throw in a third-round 65 to sit 13th through 54 holes of the SA Open, his sole subsequent start, and you begin to see the sort of scoring and tangible promise which just was not there this time last summer.
Warren made his first three cuts in this event, closing rounds of 66 and 67 demonstrating what he can do as he finished 21st in 2011 and 31st on his return in 2016, when again the likes of Wood, Luiten and Bernd Wiesberger contended behind winner Ashun Wu.
Again, it doesn't leap off the page in the way that Luiten's form might, but it does entitle him to a good deal more respect than he's being shown. I would think he should be around the same sort of price as Baldwin and Bourdy and am happy to take on board the risks associated with a player who has never quite fulfilled his promise.
Finally, in terms of raw potential there aren't many here with the scope of NICOLAI HOJGAARD, and I wanted him on-site in some fashion.
Twin brother of Rasmus, the aforementioned winner in Mauritius, Nicolai hasn't quite produced the same fireworks in his burgeoning professional career, but an opening 64 had him at the top of the leaderboard in Qatar when last seen and it's worth backing him to again start quickly.
Hojgaard had previously been second after the first round of the KLM Open, where he remained as he chased home Sergio Garcia, and sixth after the opening round of the Open de France. That's three fast starts from just 15 European Tour events, and more than anything they just demonstrate what he's capable of while underlining a lack of consistency when set against his finishing positions.
It's still tempting to side with him outright here, but while I'm hopeful he might overpower Diamond for a round or two, seeing it through at a course which is quite fiddly and penal in places may just be beyond him. Clearly, a hot opening round isn't - in fact, he shot 64 to lead after the first round of a 36-hole event in Denmark when returning to action last month. Here's to another.
Preview posted at 1255 BST on 07/07/2020
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