The Masters Tournament: First-round leader and three-ball betting tips

Recommended bets

3pts Erik van Rooyen to win his two-ball at 8/11

1pt double Jordan Spieth and Corey Conners to win their three-balls at 4.63/1

1pt e.w. Lee Westwood to lead after round one at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Brandt Snedeker to lead after round one at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Justin Rose to lead after round one at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Start the Van

Sung Kang was the one I wanted to take on among the afternoon starters on day one of the Masters. He finds himself in a two-ball with fellow Masters debutant ERIK VAN ROOYEN and it's been priced up as fairly competitive. I doubt it will be.

Kang is another who is in the field on the strength of 2019 form, having won the Byron Nelson on the eve of the PGA Championship, where he performed well. At the time he was a dangerous player to be taking on even at the highest level, but that's no longer the case. In four of his last 12 starts he's carded a round of 80-plus, including a 16-over 86 at the US Open, where van Rooyen played well.

There's simply no comparison between these two in terms of current form, and van Rooyen is the classier, longer player, who strikes the ball better, and has been playing well for a sustained period. Last week he made it six successive victories over Kang in their personal (and fictional) head-to-head, and while this is a two-ball and not a tournament match bet, there remains a big gap between them even over a more volatile 18 holes.

Van Rooyen leads 25-9-2 in their single-round head-to-head, i.e. he's won 70% of the time, and much of these rounds took place when Kang was in form. The Korean isn't doing anything consistently well lately, his putter hasn't been able to make up for a prolonged run of bad ball-striking, and he could be eaten alive by Augusta. I don't think van Rooyen will be and at 8/11 with Sky Bet he's the standout bet on the day.

Go West for first-round lead

Among the many changes to this year's edition of the Masters is the introduction of a two-tee start, defying tradition which dictates that every group will tee off from the first. Limited daylight has forced organisers into a compromise and there will be those who dread teeing off at 10 before taking on Amen Corner, although the first had been a more difficult hole until the two swapped roles last year.

Working out where best to begin is a something of a fool's errand, and I can't find any great reason to suggest either side of this now split draw will be favoured. There is a possibility that softer greens start to churn up a little by the end of the day, but this is Augusta National, they'll begin Thursday morning pristine, and the field is not a particularly big one.

Instead my angle here is to back a selection of course specialists with the experience which could give them an edge, including positive memories of strong starts here. The fact that Jordan Spieth has held the first-round lead three times in six years tells us something and he's far from the only recurring name. In fact, since 1996, Fred Couples, Davis Love, JUSTIN ROSE and Chris DiMarco have all been in front after the first day's play on multiple occasions and we could well see another repeat offender.

It could be Spieth, on whom there's more a little further down, but he's not shooting enough low numbers to inspire confidence and at the same price, I do prefer Rose for all that he wasn't particularly tempting in the outright market.

Generally speaking I'm not particularly keen on the former US Open winner this week, as his game has been far too in-and-out since splitting with long-time coach Sean Foley, who has no doubt been a key figure in his career. But there have been plenty of good rounds thrown in, including three 67s on his last start, and in three of his 12 appearances since golf returned he's hit the frame at the advised terms, including a 'win' when setting the pace at Colonial.

Crucially, he's been there and done it at Augusta on several occasions. Rose, who famously lost a play-off here in 2017, held the first-round lead in 2004, 2007 and 2008 — all the more remarkable given that they were successive visits — and was second, fourth and fifth from 2015 to 2017. Unsurprisingly, his first-round scoring average at Augusta is his strongest and after a good start last time I could see him finding that mid-sixties number we need from one of the final groups out, which has traditionally been a good draw.

Hopefully, he'll be chasing down a target set by either LEE WESTWOOD or BRANDT SNEDEKER, who earn the vote from the morning wave at 66/1 and 80/1 respectively.

Westwood has a lead and three further places in this market in his last 10 starts at Augusta. Once a regular title contender here, his recent form is highly encouraging and there's little doubt he's as good now as he was when finishing 17th in 2017. The only slight issue is a bad start to last week's warm-up event, but on a new, difficult, quirky course, that can be overlooked.

Overall he's played some excellent golf since June and it includes an opening 62 to lead the Scottish Championship. Of course, these are deeper waters, but don't forget a first-round 67 had him fifth at the US Open and in his previous major start, at Portrush, he sat third. Here at Augusta his course knowledge could well power another low one and at 66/1, he's worth chancing.

Snedeker is one of those who could find this a bit of a long, soft slog, but his putting has returned to where it needs to be recently and that could be enough for the one low round we require. He's been producing them regularly since regaining his confidence on the greens, leading in Houston last week, making a big Friday-Saturday move in the Safeway, and inbetween those two carding a third-round 63 at the Shriners.

Placed in this market on three of his 11 Augusta starts and another four times across the US Open and the Open Championship, and with his milestone 40th birthday just a couple of weeks away, it wouldn't surprise me were he to pop up at a course he adores. Sustaining it for four rounds may be beyond him and this market looks the way to go in the hope he can overcome a distance disadvantage thanks to a few of those trademark 15-footers.

Spieth worth the risk

Of the small list of players I had marked down to take on over the first two days of the Masters, two find themselves in the same group. The problem is, the third member of the party is JORDAN SPIETH, but at odds-against he's just about worth chancing to beat Gary Woodland and Ian Poulter.

We surely know by now that Spieth has an incredible Masters record, one which could've seen him win it three times since his debut visit in 2014. That year, he gave best to Bubba Watson, before romping to victory in 2015, and appearing set to complete a rare defence until disaster struck in 2016. To finish as high as 11th on his return demonstrated his strength of character, and an awesome final round the following year saw him push Patrick Reed the distance.

Only once, in 2019, has he finished outside the top 20 — and he was 21st. He has ended 16 of his 24 (66.67%) rounds at Augusta National inside the top 10 on the leaderboard. By way of comparison, Tiger Woods comes in at just over 50% across his 82 rounds. Spieth's record at Augusta already marks him down as the best of his generation when it comes to knowing how to cope with the challenge it presents.

Now, 2020 Jordan Spieth is a different beast, his game having regressed, and he arrives on the back of a missed cut. There are undeniable negatives, and I won't even seek to argue that positive approach figures in Houston, where during the first round he was in the lead for a couple of hours, are something we can take a great deal of encouragement from. Any bet on Spieth is risky, and he could not be a confident selection to do anything, even if the bar is set as low as making the cut.

That being said, the price looks to factor all of this in and, crucially, his worst ever score at Augusta National could win this three-ball. That score is 75, and it's one Woodland has failed to beat in eight of his 21 attempts. More to the point, last year's US Open winner is in no better form than Spieth, and his driving last time out was atrocious — worse, in fact, that anything Spieth has done throughout his malaise.

Woodland has lost a heck of a lot of weight and spent time with a new swing coach since the PGA Tour went into hibernation, and increasingly there are reasons to be alarmed. Given that his best Augusta finish in seven tries is 24th, worse than Spieth's worst, from a course form perspective this isn't a contest. And if anything it's Spieth who has shown better signs lately.

That leaves Poulter, who over the years has been a regular feature on this leaderboard, thanks in part to a dynamite short-game. However, the Englishman will be up against it with conditions so long, so soft, and even more so if he's not fully recovered from the back problem which kept him out of last week's Houston Open. Given that he won that event a couple of years ago, it's not one he'd skip lightly.

Without question, I would have preferred someone more reliable to have been in against Woodland and Poulter, and to be taking 4/5 about a perceived banker like Tony Finau or Hideki Matsuyama. Instead, we'll have to make do with 6/4 about Spieth. This is the one place on earth I'd be willing to do that.

Double him up with another early starter, the earliest in fact, with COREY CONNERS a rock-solid selection at a similar enough price.

The Canadian is a quality ball-striker who arrives in form, with three top-25 finishes in his last four. Seven of his last eight rounds have been under-par and he looks in better overall health now than he did last year, when an out-of-the-blue win in Texas earned him the final place in the field.

To play so well for three rounds before falling to 46th was a pretty impressive effort in the circumstances, and no doubt a reflection of the experience gained here as an amateur, when he responded manfully from an opening 80 to shoot a brave 69. Since that debut reality check he's shown he can take care of the course (four of his five rounds under-par) and his ball-striking stats last April were typically excellent.

In with him is CT Pan, a short-hitter who qualified via the RBC Heritage, the event which followed last year's Masters. Pan is one of several players here who owe their spot in the field to form which is seriously dated and, although he has shown the odd positive sign lately, he's going to find this a serious grind. Approaching greens from 200-plus is hard to sustain when you don't know your way around and he's one I expect to struggle to make the weekend.

Lucas Glover is long enough but he's played here seven times and his best finishing position is 20th, way back in 2007. He averages more than 74 in 22 rounds and though finally breaking 70 on his latest visit, that round was on Friday back in 2014. His best effort in the first round is a 73 registered in 2006. And he arrives in terrible form having made two cuts in eight.

Conners averages more than a stroke lower, and that's despite shooting 80 when a star-struck amateur. Since then he's under-par and he probably won't need to be to land the money here, with anything around 73 likely to be good enough.

Posted at 0845 GMT on 11/11/20

The Masters Tournament

• Ben Coley's outright betting preview and tips
• Ben Coley's specials betting preview and tips
• First-round leader and three-ball selections
• Expert picks from our team of pundits
• Player-by-player guide to the entire field
• Augusta National course guide and rankings
• Lost Fore Words podcast: Masters special

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