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The Masters Tournament: Ben Coley's free golf specials betting preview
Lee Westwood is worth a bet to be the top Englishman at the Masters according to Ben Coley, who goes through the pick of the specials.
Recommended bets
1.5pts e.w. Lee Westwood to be the top English player at 10/1 (1/5 1,2,3)
2pts e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick to be the top English player at 6/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Bernd Wiesberger to be the top continental European at 11/1
0.5pt Victor Perez to be the top continental European at 14/1
1pt Cameron Champ to be the top debutant at 11/1
0.5pt Jason Kokrak to be the top debutant at 10/1
Top Englishman
The Masters is surely the best tournament of the year for an outright bet, with perhaps 25 realistic winners and not many more place contenders in a small field, yet 10 or even 11 places now offered by the layers.
Specials-wise, it's not so good, and this too is down to the field size. Take for instance the top Spaniard market, in which there are now just three players, or top South American which consists of one PGA Tour regular and one amateur.
As a result I've come to the belief that the market for the top Englishman, while on the one hand more competitive than most, is the best one to attack — so I'm doing so with both LEE WESTWOOD and MATT FITZPATRICK.
On what's set to be an especially soft and long Augusta National course, I've slight concerns as to whether either can launch a challenge for the Green Jacket — under firmer, April conditions, both would've been under consideration for the outright staking plan.
But this top English market isn't blessed with power. The exceptions are Paul Casey, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood to some degree, but all arrive with questions to answer having failed to prepare as they'd have liked.
Favourite therefore is Tyrrell Hatton, who is bang in-form but has a miserable Augusta record. I expect he'll probably improve upon it, but it's a sufficient doubt to take him on at 3/1. Meanwhile former Masters winner Danny Willett is really struggling, Matt Wallace missed the cut on debut, and Ian Poulter is nursing a back injury which forced him to withdraw from the Houston Open last week.
That leaves us firstly with Westwood, who has played well week-in, week-out throughout summer and autumn and can be forgiven a bad first round in Texas, which he recovered from with a solid knock on Friday. He's back at the Masters for the first time since 2017 and is in generally excellent form on both sides of the Atlantic, having contended for the US Open to a point where he was indeed the top Englishman.
Westwood's record here is obviously excellent, including seven top-20 finishes in his last eight starts, and both his preparation and world ranking compare favourably to his tie for 17th on his last visit. Something similar could win this market, with 13th place having been enough at Winged Foot. On his previous major start, he was second only to Fleetwood in the Open at Portrush.
As for Fitzpatrick, his only missed cut in this came by a single shot as an amateur. Since then he's finished seventh, 32nd, 38th and 21st, leading the field in greens back in 2016 and improving his putting with every subsequent visit. Throughout the last two months he's been threatening to win and having Westwood's former caddie, Billy Foster, on his bag around here can only be a positive.
Fitzpatrick's iron play has generally been very good since an awful and rare putting week saw him miss the cut at the US Open. Regularly on the fringes in the majors, he's ready to contend for one very soon and if he can overcome the distance barrier it could be now. Regardless, he looks as likely as anyone in this market — and I include Hatton in that.
Top continental European
It may not seem and may not prove wise to oppose Jon Rahm in any way this week, and the Spaniard was the fifth man on my list and therefore the last one off it in terms of an outright bet.
That said, he's odds-on to be the top continental European and looks short enough, so with second-favourite Francesco Molinari and fourth-favourite Henrik Stenson easy to oppose, the market suddenly looks appealing. That feeling is enhanced by quickly drawing a line through Bernhard Langer and Jose Maria Olazabal, although it must be said they have very little impact on the market.
Rafa Cabrera Bello is playing very poorly and that leaves us with BERND WIESBERGER and VICTOR PEREZ, who are worth combining to form a two-pronged attack on the favourite — albeit to small stakes.
Wiesberger has made all four cuts at Augusta and contended for a PGA Championship, so he's been there and done it. His form looks to be improving at just the right time having led the field in greens hit in the Italian Open, and he's made the cut in both the PGA and the US Open this year.
Perez is a debutant who missed the cut in Italy, but he had previously appeared to turn a corner and that long-game which powered his surge up the rankings this time last year is back where it needs to be.
At Harding Park in the PGA, he finished just three behind Rahm and though there's an obvious chance that gap widens at Augusta, where Rahm has experience in his favour, 14/1 in what looks like it could be a three-runner race is worth that risk.
Top debutant
This year's debutant cohort looks particularly strong, and the wait for a first rookie winner since 1979 could finally come to an end. This year we've had Collin Morikawa win the PGA and Matthew Wolff lead the US Open, and victory for one of those could clearly not be labelled a surprise.
Both are respected — Morikawa is one of the top three or four iron players in the sport, and Wolff has contended for his first two major starts — but at the prices, CAMERON CHAMP and JASON KOKRAK stand out.
Champ features in my outright preview having shown encouraging signs with his iron play and putting last time out. Eighth place in the Zozo was an excellent way to prepare and a week earlier in the CJ Cup, he hit his approaches as well as he ever has only to endure a nightmare with the putter.
How well he copes on these greens will be key but every time he has putted above-average in 2020, he's been inside the top 25 on the leaderboard. Should he reach that target this week it will put him among a small number of potential winners in this market, and his length could prove a decisive factor.
Kokrak is also a big-hitter who arrives in form, having won the CJ Cup. His improvement has been powered by new-found confidence with the putter and that should set him up for a good Masters debut. His form at potentially correlating courses like Shadow Creek and Riviera bodes well and he's at the absolute top of his game.
Champ is the stronger fancy with Kokrak the cover shot in the hope that this soft, long test does play into their hands, while reducing Morikawa's advantage.
Posted at 1210 GMT on 10/11/20
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