xG Premier League review: Gameweek 30 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 4.43 - 1.74
• Fairness rating: 64.50
• Scorers: Salah 42', Firmino 87' | Martinelli 8', Jesus 28'

Roberto Firmino's late equaliser gave Liverpool a point in a 2-2 draw with Arsenal, although it could and should have been more based on the underlying numbers.

The Reds had to battle back from 2-0 down inside half an hour, with Gabriel Martinelli scoring early before turning provider as Gabriel Jesus headed in his lofted cross shortly after.

Mohamed Salah's goal came at a crucial time just before the break, and the Liverpool forward missed the opportunity to grab his second as he sent his penalty wide in the 52nd minute.

Liverpool pushed yet had to be aware of the Arsenal counter attack, but Aaron Ramsdale was the away side's hero with some super stops as the game approached full-time.

His remarkable fingertip save denied a deflected Salah shot in the final minutes, following it up with an incredible stop to deny Ibrahima Konaté from close range just moments later.

Liverpool's 4.43 xG was their highest created in the Premier League this season - that's despite beating Manchester United 7-0 and Bournemouth 9-0 at Anfield.

The Reds' total of 19 shots inside the box was also the most efforts Arsenal have faced from this area in a Premier League match since data has been collected from 03/04 onwards.

The result leaves the title race finely balanced, with Sky Bet making Manchester City the slimmest of favourites.

City host Arsenal in a huge midweek game on April 26, after which there are five more Premier League games to play.

Leeds 1-5 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 1.02 - 3.39
• Fairness rating: 92.76
• Scorers: Bamford 21' | Guehi 45+1', Ayew 53' 77', Eze 55', Edouard 69'

Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace revolution continued as Leeds were humiliated in front of their own supporters in a 5-1 hammering at Elland Road.

The home side dominated the early chances but a defensive capitulation let Palace run away with the contest, with free-flowing attacks allowing the visitors' confidence to grow.

Patrick Bamford capitalised from a set-piece situation in the first-half, but the hosts couldn't deal with free-kicks or corners into their own box, which saw Marc Guehi strike from close range before the break.

The visitors started the second on the front foot and fully deserved their advantage through Jordan Ayew, followed by Eberechi Eze finishing off a delightful attacking move minutes later.

Odsonne Édouard made it four, and with the hosts looking as if they're accepted the result was well beyond them, Ayew grabbed his second in the latter stages after connecting with a deflected through ball.

It was another remarkable attacking display in their second game following Hodgson's appointment. It follows their win at home to Leicester which delivered 31 shots and 2.84 xG.

They also limited Leeds to just one effort in the second-half, with the Foxes allowed just three across 90 minutes last time out.

Tottenham 2-1 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 0.50-1.65
• Fairness rating: 51.76
• Scorers: Son 10', Kane 79' | Dunk 34'

Tottenham remain fifth – three points behind Newcastle and Manchester United while having played a game more than both of them – after beating Brighton 2-1 in a bad tempered game.

Both managers were sent off, with Albion particularly aggrieved by three VAR decisions that went against them.

Not only did the visitors dominate every facet of the game, they had two goals ruled out for handball. The first, involving Kaoru Mitoma, was a close call, with the second unlucky but correct as Alexis Mac Allister accidentally diverted a Danny Welbeck effort into the goal.

But what sparked the greatest outrage on the Brighton bench was the officials' failure to award them a penalty when Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg clearly fouled Mitoma in the area shortly before Harry Kane's winning goal.

The result at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was awarded the lowest Infogol Fairness rating of the day (51.76) and that is without accounting for the lack of a penalty and the two disallowed goals.

Lucky, lucky Spurs.

Southampton 1-4 Man City

• Infogol xG: 0.54-3.09
• Fairness rating: 98.85
• Scorers: Mara 72' | Haaland 45',68', Grealish 58', Álvarez 75' pen

Erling Haaland scored twice on his return from injury as Manchester City cut the gap to leaders Arsenal to five points by thrashing bottom club Southampton.

The Norwegian striker headed the visitors in front shortly before the break from a Kevin De Bruyne’s cross and produced an acrobatic finish to score City’s third of the game, and his 30th league goal of the season, after Jack Grealish turned home on the rebound just prior to the hour mark.

Southampton pulled a goal back from substitute Sekou Mara before City scored again through a penalty from Julian Alvarez, who had replaced for Haaland.

Aston Villa 2-0 Nottm Forest

• Infogol xG: 1.38-0.27
• Fairness rating: 85.72
• Scorers: Traore 48', Watkins 90'+5

Aston Villa boosted their hopes of European football with a straightforward home win over Nottingham Forest.

Bertrand Traore and Ollie Watkins, with his ninth goal in 11 games, scored as Forest dropped into the bottom three after yet another away day without reward, heaping the pressure on beleaguered boss Steve Cooper.

Brentford 1-2 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 2.55-1.26
• Fairness rating: 55.80
• Scorers: Toney 45'+1 | Raya 54' og, Isak 61'

Newcastle stayed third after coming from behind to beat Brentford in a tight game that will be best remembered for Ivan Toney's failure to score from the spot, ending his remarkable 100% penalty record for the Bees when his tame effort was saved by Nick Pope.

The hosts did ultimately go ahead through their leading scorer when he netted another spot-kick on the stroke of half-time.

After Brentford goalkeeper David Raya diverted Joelinton’s ball across goal in to his own net after 54 minutes, Alexander Isak scored a fantastic decider just after the hour mark to secure Newcastle’s fifth successive victory.

Fulham 0-1 West Ham

• Infogol xG: 0.76-1.44
• Fairness rating: 86.52
• Scorers: Reed 23' og

West Ham released much of the pressure on manager David Moyes as an own goal from Harrison Reed proved the difference at Craven Cottage.

After losing 5-1 at home to Newcastle on Wednesday, the Hammers recorded just their second away win of the campaign to move up to 13th, three points clear of the relegation zone.

Leicester 0-1 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 1.02-2.29
• Fairness rating: 94.93
• Scorers: Billing 40'

Bournemouth climbed out of the bottom three as Philip Billing’s cool first-half finish gave them a vital 1-0 victory at the expense of fellow strugglers Leicester, who look set to appoint former Leeds boss Jesse Marsch.

Having sacked manager Brendan Rodgers last Sunday, Leicester are now in real danger of dropping into the Championship on the back of picking up just eight points since Christmas.

The Cherries are up to 15th and three points above the drop zone.

Wolves 1-0 Chelsea

• Infogol xG: 0.72-1.08
• Fairness rating: 59.83
• Scorers: Nunes 31'

Frank Lampard’s return as Chelsea manager ended in a 1-0 defeat to relegation-threatened Wolves at Molineux thanks to Matheus Nunes' 31st minute goal - the Portugal midfielder’s first since his club-record move from Sporting in August.

It was a familiar tale for the Blues, who won the xG (expected goals) battle for the fifth time in six league games, but failed to scored for a third match in a row.

During that six-game run they have taken only eight points.

Man Utd 2-0 Everton

• Infogol xG: 3.95-1.04
• Fairness rating: 97.30
• Scorers: McTominay 36', Martial 71'

Manchester United maintained their top-four push with an impressive 2-0 home win over Everton thanks to goals from Scott McTominay and substitute Anthony Martial in a game they ought to have won by a wider margin.

The 3.95 xG they created was their second-most of the season behind only February's 3-0 home win over Leicester (4.22).

As good day as it was for Erik ten Hag's team, an injury to top scorer Marcus Rashford undoubtedly took some of the shine off victory.

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