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Notebook - Harvey Barnes

Tom Carnduff's Notebook: Harvey Barnes, Jørgen Strand Larsen, Kevin De Bruyne


We'll be struggling for drama at the top ends of the English football pyramid.

Birmingham became the first team to officially be confirmed as champions, that being in Sky Bet League One, with Liverpool set to follow in the Premier League.

Port Vale have seized the initiative in League Two as they've shuffled themselves three points clear while Burnley and Leeds are battling for top spot in the Championship.

The thing with the last three teams mentioned is that, while the title races are open, they're in comfortable positions for promotion. The jeopardy is decreasing at a drastic rate.

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And you can argue the case at the other end too.

We know the three going down from the Premier League, we know three of the four in League One while both spots seem certain in League Two.

The Championship is the place to focus here. Six points separates Cardiff in 22nd and Oxford in 17th. We do have some intrigue then, you've just got to bounce around the leagues to find it.

At least there are talking points to go at. Six are in focus here.


Taking the chance

Newcastle have pushed their way into the top four, although a spot in the top five would be enough for Champions League football next season.

They've been playing well and scoring plenty. Since coming into the team for Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes has been delivering.

He's scored three and assisted two across those four starts. That period also delivered a significant total of 16 shots.

Harvey Barnes shot map

Gordon is their best winger yet the form of both Barnes and Jacob Murphy should stay until a change is required. It would be extremely harsh to drop Barnes on current form.

Those two assists previously mentioned have come from seven chances created too. His performances are warranting a starting spot.

Harvey Barnes chances created

Decent prices will be available for some form of goal involvement when they host Crystal Palace in midweek and then the trip to Aston Villa at the weekend.

For the FPL players, he's a bargain £5.9m midfielder too.


Under the radar

Wolves are among a group of teams who won't be talked about much, if at all, in the final weeks of the season.

They have nothing to play for. The non-existent relegation battle sees them well safe despite sitting in 16th - they're 14 points clear of the drop.

But that does mean the form of Jørgen Strand Larsen is going under the radar a little bit.

The Norwegian forward's goal against Tottenham on Sunday took his Premier League tally to a decent enough 12 in 30 appearances but he's really ending the campaign in strong form.

Jorgen Strand Larsen shot map

Strand Larsen has now scored five goals across his last four outings.

Those games have also delivered 11 shots - three chances were also created in their home win over West Ham.

Wolves are 3/1 outsiders currently for Sunday's trip to Manchester United meaning that you should see good odds floating around on Strand Larsen continuing his good scoring run.


Signing off in style?

Outlandish statement of the column time. Liverpool will be the Premier League champions.

The 'if' has turned to 'when' with the Reds just two wins away from lifting the title again - they're 13 points clear of Arsenal in second.

Liverpool just haven't been as good in the second half of the season as they were in the first. Yet the fixture list gives them a great opportunity to finish things in style.

Arne Slot's side go to Leicester on Sunday before hosting Spurs seven days later. Particularly in the first game, there is appeal in taking them to score plenty.

Brighton 2-2 Leicester

The Foxes have been conceding an alarming amount of chances under Ruud van Nistelrooy, who will go down in Premier League managerial history for the wrong reasons.

Despite picking up a point at the Amex, Brighton created chances worth 3.91 expected goals (xG). Even without the penalties, the figure stands at 2.33.

A few days earlier, Newcastle scored three from 3.25 xG. Manchester City's two goals at the Etihad came from 2.24 xG.

So while Liverpool may well be a bit more 'flat' in recent weeks, there could be value in taking higher lines for away total goals on Sunday.


And on that theme...

Someone else aiming to sign off in style is Kevin De Bruyne. He recently announced his summer departure from Manchester City.

So, why not play him up front with Erling Haaland out injured? That delivered a goal and an assist in a 5-2 thriller against Crystal Palace last time out.

It's potentially now a case of age playing a part because he certainly doesn't look as impactful as previously but that was certainly De Bruyne's best City performance in a while.

Kevin De Bruyne shot map vs Palace

He saw six shots, two of which were on target, with three chances also created for team mates. It was a deserved man of the match performance.

There's no reason for City to not start him every game now if fitness allows. They should be finishing in that top five and De Bruyne's earned the right for a farewell tour.

Everton have been going very well under David Moyes and yet City are 10/11 for victory there on Saturday. That should influence De Bruyne's prices for goal involvement.


Some signs of life?

Well, errr, no actually.

Southampton were well beaten 3-0 by Aston Villa on Saturday. It was interesting to see how they'd respond to their relegation being confirmed.

For some, the pressure is off. They can start to play with a bit of 'freedom' knowing that the pressure for results is no longer there, even if this had been a long time coming.

But the Saints, under the interim guidance of Simon Rusk, could barely get close to their European-calibre opponents.

Southampton 0-3 Aston Villa

The hosts posted seven shots to Villa's 25. Two of them on target to 10. They also gave away two penalties which were both missed, although the second was scored on the rebound.

Four Villa players posted at least three shots each too. This wasn't the 'paying back the supporters' faith' sort of performance they'd have hoped for.

West Ham may be a short 8/15 to win on Saturday but it's probably worthwhile continuing to oppose Southampton in any accumulators.


A week's a long time

So in last week's Notebook, I was confident in taking Leeds to finish in the play-offs as a solid bet.

They looked like they'd ran out of steam. They'd hit the wall. It's a team who appeared to be lacking the fight required.

But a week's a long time in football, as the cliché goes.

Leeds dug in to secure a 1-0 away win at Middlesbrough followed by a 2-1 victory over Preston on Saturday. That, coupled with two defeats for Sheffield United, sees them top and five points clear of third.

It's the nature of those victories though which is a significant confidence booster for their chances.

Against Middlesbrough, they scored early, had two good goals ruled out for offside, and showed a defensive resilience which has been lacking in recent weeks.

On Saturday, they created chances which equated to their third-highest expected goals (xG) tally of the season. They could, and probably should, have scored five.

Some bookmakers go as short as 1/250 on Leeds promotion now, with 2/5 available on the title.


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