We have been here before with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and usually what happens next is a huge win, pulled out of nowhere, to save his skin and start the cycle all over again; keeping Manchester United in limbo, trapped with a manager capable of avoiding full-blown crisis but not good enough to improve.
Perhaps we’ve already seen it, even, although Wednesday night’s dramatic comeback against Atalanta doesn’t necessarily signify much with Liverpool coming to Old Trafford on Sunday – as Paul Scholes made clear on punditry duty.
They still need a good result against Jurgen Klopp’s side as they head into a tough run of fixtures through November and, thanks to Cristiano Ronaldo, that is unlikely to happen.
Finally, we might actually be at breaking point.
Why Ronaldo has made United worse
The Portuguese forward has made Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team worse.
His complete disinterest in pressing, or even cutting off the passing lines through to central midfield, mean United are more decompressed, haphazard, and meandering across the pitch than they were last season.
Among Premier League forwards to have played at least three games Ronaldo is bottom of the table for pressures per 95 minutes with 3.6, per FBRef.
That is significantly fewer than even the next worst presser Allan Saint-Maximin, who averages recorded 6.1 per 95 mins.
The Premier League average this season for number of pressures by forwards is 15.5. More than four times Ronaldo's average.
This matters less when they are able to comfortably dominate possession but it is a problem when facing the bigger clubs, which are precisely the games that, until now, Solskjaer knew how to win and would use to swerve a crisis; to convince the board he was the man for the job.
In truth, nobody should be swayed by those results, the most recent being a 2-0 win at the Etihad in March.
Solskjaer is good at coaching a defensive unit when they can sit in strict lines behind the ball, but as an elite club they really ought not to be doing that very often; reactive counter-attacking football is the easiest thing to coach, and so these sorts of wins are in no way indicative of a tactical mind up to the challenge of managing one of the biggest clubs in the world.
That hardly matters anymore, not with Ronaldo leading the line.
Still no plan at United
In the 4-2 defeat to Leicester City last weekend he allowed Youri Tielemans, Boubakary Soumare, and James Maddison to receive simple vertical passes through the lines, turning harmless possession at the back into a good chance to attack the final third.
By doing so, the entire model collapsed as team-mates pressed in ones or twos to make up for it, further destabilising the shape.
All of which is to say Man Utd fans should be less hopeful of a positive result against Liverpool on Sunday than they have been in the past.
Granted, they will still benefit from being allowed to sit deeper and play on the break (making up for Solskjaer’s inability to coach structured possession with improvised counter-attacks) but it is hard to see how a Ronaldo-led side can avoid another damaging defeat.
Can United stop Liverpool on Sunday?
For starters, Jurgen Klopp will know how to ensure his midfield evade any pressure and find the gaps either side of Ronaldo.
Fabinho, Jordan Henderson, and Naby Keita all have the mobility to dominate in central midfield as they receive sharp passes into feet from Virgil van Dijk and Joel Matip, and once that is allowed to happen Liverpool’s on-fire front three will get plenty of space to attack into wide-open spaces.
Even if Harry Maguire is more recovered than he was against Leicester, Raphael Varane is still out and United surely cannot stop Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane, and Mohamed Salah – who have scored 24 goals in 24 starts in the Premier League and Champions League this season.
We hardly need to go into detail about how these three work together, but suffice to say their telepathic understanding at the moment presents a serious headache for a United defence that has conceded ten league goals already.
Midfield the key for the Red Devils
A big part of the problem isn’t the back four itself but what happens in front, where any combination of Man Utd midfielders struggles to cope with the huge patches of grass, vertically and horizontally, that open up around them.
That is the consequence of a tactically-inept shape made worse by the random pressing, the individualised movements, and the absence of any pressure being applied from the front.
Paul Pogba is likely to be moved out to the left (or put on the bench) in order to accommodate two defensive-minded midfielders on Sunday, as he was against Atalanta, but even so they will be outnumbered and overwhelmed by Liverpool’s three.
Man Utd’s main hope is getting behind Liverpool’s full-backs, and while Klopp will preach caution to Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson there will be times when Ronaldo, Marcus Rashford, or Mason Greenwood can make runs into the flanks.
Will defeat spell the end for Ole?
Counter-attacks, led by Bruno Fernandes, give some cause for optimism, although with Fabinho and Van Dijk patrolling it will take a serious off day from Liverpool to be hurt this way.
After you factor in United's increasing problem defending set-pieces and Liverpool’s record of scoring five so far this season, the joint-highest in the Premier League, it all starts to feel a bit hopeless from a United perspective.
The manager’s defenders will point to those heroics, led chiefly by Ronaldo, in Wednesday’s Champions League win, but Atalanta are simply not at the level of England’s elite.
That finale fit perfectly with the repeating pattern, the accidental brinkmanship, we’ve seen from Solskjaer’s Man Utd and yet it is telling that even former team-mates like Scholes came out of the game questioning whether the club can take any positives from it. That is a notable shift.
Solskjaer faces an era-defining few weeks.
Between now and the end of November he faces all five of the other ‘Big Six’ in the league, a run that would usually work in his favour but now looks ominous.
If the Leicester game – and Ronaldo’s recent performances – are anything to go by, he won’t be able to avoid a crisis this time.
