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Liverpool's front three better than ever: Mo Salah and co still getting better
Manchester City have 16 Premier League goals. So do Manchester United. So do Chelsea. So do three Liverpool players.
If no one other than Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah had struck, Liverpool would still be the joint top scorers in the division.
As it is, their four main forwards, including Diogo Jota, have scored more than any other team.
An argument for continuity
Saturday’s 5-0 win at Watford highlighted the revival of the old alliance.
Salah, Mane and Firmino got all five goals - the 15th time they had all scored in the same game and, after the Champions League win at Porto, the second already this season.
If Salah has reached a new level, Firmino seemed to be in decline when his goal return dropped in recent years. Now he has a league goal every 54 minutes. Salah has a goal or an assist every 65.
While they face an expensively remodelled United attack on Sunday, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Jadon Sancho high-profile additions, Liverpool are an argument for continuity.
They have found the answer within.
A more clinical Firmino?
Those three familiar faces present different stories. Firmino’s goals have all come against Norwich and Watford. He started one of the defining ties, with Chelsea, but was benched against City.
He has rarely been a byword for clinical finishing: now he has four goals from five shots, with 149 players having taken more shots than the Brazilian.
Roberto Firmino #LFC 88 CL/PL/EL goals from 90 #xG with a ton of narrative thrown in. 10 game rolling goals per 95 minus 10 game rolling xG per 95. Data @InfogolApp pic.twitter.com/BvAXIUWzoR
— mark taylor (@MarkTaylor0) October 17, 2021
Everyone else with at least four goals has had three times as many shots. His goal-per-shot ratio had peaked at 0.17 in 2017-18. Now it is at 0.80. It is an extraordinary outlier.
But other aspects are more familiar.
Salah shoots on sight
Salah has had the most shots in the division (32), with Mane tied for second, one behind him.
He has also had the most on target, with 15; after Jamie Vardy and Mason Greenwood on 11, Mane follows on 10.
Salah averages the most shots on target per 90 minutes (1.87) of any regular. In some respects, this is no surprise: the Egyptian and Harry Kane seem to have a private competition every year to have the most attempts, though Ronaldo has joined the contest and is now averaging the most efforts per 90 minutes (4.80).
Salah’s form is familiar; statistically, it looks sustainable because the numbers suggest he has not peaked.
That average of 1.87 shots on target per 90 minutes is dramatically up on last season (1.35) but not on 2019-20 (1.75). It is below his 2.01 in 2017-18, just as his impressive return of a goal every 0.40 shots on target is lower than his 0.48 then. He is averaging 4.00 shots per 90 minutes now, compared to 4.40 then.
A new side to Salah's game
The difference in Salah this season comes in terms of creativity. His expected assists per 90 has never topped 0.28 in a season. Now it is 0.5.
He only got five assists last season. He is on four already.
Salah is averaging 5.37 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes this season, way up on last year’s 3.42 and better than his previous best of 4.71 in 2017-18. Salah created the seventh-most chances in the division last season; now he ranks second only to Bruno Fernandes.
That helps explain his fellow forwards’ goal tallies. His first two assists were for Jota and Firmino. The last two have both been for Mane.
It provides a contrast with United: while Paul Pogba has seven assists and Fernandes two, none of the forwards have any yet. Mason Greenwood has an expected assists of 0.61 and Sancho of 0.35 but without anyone converting those chances.
Ronaldo’s expected assists is down at 0.14, which is roughly what Salah musters every half-hour.
Mane in form but out of form?
Mane admitted last season was the worst of his career. His numbers are up now, to a career-best 3.87 shots per 90 minutes.
His chance conversion rate is only 16 percent, better than 12 last season but nowhere near the 24 percent of the previous two campaigns. But he has been less creative.
Last year, despite his struggles in front of goal, he managed 3.97 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, the best he has registered. Now it is down to 2.87, the lowest since such figures were first compiled.
Thus far, Liverpool have had at least two goals from forwards in every league game apart from the 1-1 draw with Chelsea, when Salah still scored. Last season, Mane had Premier League goal droughts of eight and nine games, while Firmino had a 12-game barren streak.
In their bleak winter, Liverpool twice went four games without a goal as too much of the scoring responsibility rested with Salah.
United a long way behind
There is a contrast with United, who look to have more potential scorers among their forwards and attacking midfielders, but who have fewer goals thus far.
United are still trying to work out who plays and how to gel. Liverpool, meanwhile, are benefiting from years of practice, with just fine-tuning.
And that is proving far more potent.
