The Sky Bet Championship relegation battle has come down to the final day, with three of the bottom four set to drop into League One. As if that wasn't dramatic enough, two of them meet.
The relegation places are the only worthwhile things yet to be determined in the second tier. Norwich are champions, Watford have been promoted, and we already know the four teams who will be contesting the play-offs (just not the third-sixth order quite yet).
It’s three from four for the drop, but what is each team's chance of survival?
Championship odds to stay up (via Sky Bet)
- Derby - 8/13
- Sheff Wed - 3/1
- Rotherham - 10/3
- Wycombe - 2000/1
Odds correct at 1600 BST (06/05/21)
Rams in driving seat
Wayne Rooney’s DERBY have been in freefall for some time, and head into the final day having lost 10 of their last 13 matches, including their last six.
On Saturday, they host fellow relegation candidates SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY at Pride Park in a fixture computer special.
The Rams have a three-point advantage over the Owls, but an inferior goal difference means defeat will condemn them to the third tier for the first time in 35 years.
A point may be enough for Rooney’s side, but they would then be relying on Rotherham failing to beat Cardiff.
The Infogol model, which uses expected goals (xG) data to power its predictions, gives Derby a 67% chance of surviving on Saturday.
Win or bust for Owls and Millers
A win is a must for Sheffield Wednesday, but even that might not be enough depending on ROTHERHAM'S result.
If the Owls beat Derby, they will guarantee finishing above the Rams, but could be pipped by their local rivals should the Millers beat CARDIFF.
Like Wednesday, anything other than a win will see Rotherham relegated. A win in Wales is unlikely, according to Infogol, with the model giving Paul Warne’s side a 26% chance of collecting three points.
A Rotherham win coupled with a draw between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday or an Owls win would see the Millers survive.
However, the model gives Wednesday a better chance of staying up than Rotherham, with Darren Moore’s side surviving 19% of the time compared to the Millers' 14%.
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WYCOMBE aren’t yet mathematically down. But...
They need to beat MIDDLESBROUGH and hope Wednesday beat Derby and Rotherham don’t win to draw level with the Owls and Derby on 43 points. And...
Their goal difference of -33 is massively inferior to both Derby (-22) and Wednesday (-11), so the Chairboys would need a monumental goal swing to survive.
Infogol gives them less than a 0.0001% chance of pulling it off.
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