With the dates for the Sky Bet EFL play-offs now announced, and the Championship quartet who will fight it out for promotion to the Premier League already confirmed, we assess each team's chances ahead of the end-of-season 'lottery'.
Barnsley, Bournemouth, Brentford and Swansea are the sides guaranteed a place in the top six, with just the order, and therefore the semi-final draw, to be decided.
With the top flight now tantalisingly close, how is each club's form shaping up according to the underlying numbers?
When are the Championship play-offs?
Sky Bet Championship semi-final first legs:
- Semi-final A: Monday, May 17, 18:00 BST on Sky Sports
- Semi-final B: Tuesday, May 18, 20:15 BST on Sky Sports
Sky Bet Championship semi-final second legs:
- Semi-final A: Saturday, May 22, 12.30 BST on Sky Sports
- Semi-final B: Saturday, May 22, 5.30 BST on Sky Sports
When and where is the Championship play-off final?
The Sky Bet Championship play-off final will be played at Wembley on Saturday, May 29, 15:00 BST, and will be broadcast live on Sky Sports.
π 500/1 for the play-offs when Valerian Ismael arrived in October.
β Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) April 25, 2021
π΄ π½πΌππππππ are now three games from the Premier League. pic.twitter.com/ogBXaLcSAj
Brentford
Over the course of the season, the Bees have shown themselves to be the strongest of the four teams based on expected goals (xG), second only to champions elect Norwich in terms of scoring opportunities created, while boasting the best defence in the league.
Thomas Frank's side have conceded chances equating to an average of 0.92 expected goals against (xGA) per game this campaign, a solid trait to hold entering a such an unpredictable end-of-season shootout.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Concerns about recent form were firmly put to bed after an immensely impressive display in a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last Saturday, dominating proceedings despite being reduced to 10-men after 50 minutes. They followed that up with victory over Rotherham by the same scoreline.
Brentford should be favourites to go up according to Infogol, and recent result have done no harm for the confidence of a club that came so close to achieving the goal last term, losing to Fulham in extra time at Wembley after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth had slipped out of the play-off places before a seven-game winning streak vaulted them back into a comfortable top-six spot - a welcome period of results after a disappointing start under Jonathan Woodgate.
Despite posting solid underlying numbers during that run, the Cherries did outperform those figures quite drastically, scoring 21 times from 10.95 expected goals for (xGF).
Although Bournemouth will be a huge threat in the play-offs, they've undoubtedly underperformed given the talent at hand, sitting sixth in Infogol's expected goals (xG) table, which calculates the position a team 'deserves' to be in based on displays thus far.
In contrast, Norwich and Watford, who were relegated alongside Bournemouth last season, have excelled at this level, securing automatic promotion with ease.
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Swansea
Fans of Swansea may not care how they reached the play-offs, but Steve Cooper's side have grossly overachieved based on their expected numbers.
While it may not matter in such a small span of games, their underlying metrics are a good indicator of how good Swansea actually are.
The Swans are 11th on Infogol's xG table, holding a desperately mediocre +4.0 expected goal difference (xGD). They've scored 54 goals from 49.8 xGF and allowed 36 goals from 45.8 xGA.
As a result, it's hard to get enthused about Swansea's chances for promotion. They may well pull it off, but the other three teams are a step above from a data perspective.
Barnsley
Valerien Ismael was installed as head coach of a Barnsley side that gained just three points from their opening six games. At the time, they were 500/1 to reach the play-offs.
Their turnaround has been incredible, and driven by a vast improvement in defensive solidity.
Barnsley have conceded just 40.2 xGA in the 38 games since Ismael took charge, which first sparked a crossover between their 10-match xG trendlines, before a progressive widening of that gap over the rest of the season.
Subsequently, the Reds are fully deserving of their place in the top six, and will prove to be a tough nut for any of the three teams, considering their style of play.
Any side with a solid defence and a propensity to eke out wins in close affairs should be feared in the play-offs.
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Who has been promoted in the Sky Bet EFL?
Premier League
- Relegated: Sheffield United
Sky Bet Championship
Sky Bet League One
- Promoted: Hull
- Play-offs (at least): Peterborough
- Relegated: Bristol Rovers, Swindon
Sky Bet League Two
- Promoted: Cheltenham
- Play-offs (at least): Cambridge, Bolton
- Relegated: Grimsby
