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Daryl Dike: Man Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham - is Barnsley's American hero really that good?
Daryl Dike’s rise into professional football has been quite remarkable.
From National College Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I, to Major League Soccer, to the Sky Bet Championship in 14 months.
University of Virginia Cavaliers, to Orlando City, to Barnsley. A heck of a journey.
Now, with talk of Manchester United being among a host of clubs considering activating his reported £17m buy-out, it's threatening to become quite the fairytale.
With Barnsley currently sixth in the Championship table, Dike could well end up in the top flight next season with his current loan club, should they choose to trigger their first-option to make his deal permanent.
Whatever happens in the end-of-season play-off lottery, it feels increasingly likely the American will be playing Premier League football come August.
How good is Daryl Dike?
Dike’s career is only just taking shape. The 20-year-old has made 33 professional league appearances. In that time he’s scored 17 goals and registered three assists.
Since joining Barnsley in February, his stats are mightily impressive.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
He has accrued 4.52 xG from 11 starts and five substitute appearances. This works out at 0.37 xG per 95 minutes, but more impressive is that he’s averaging 0.74 goals per 95.
When we dig into his numbers compared with other strikers in the division, he has the best goal conversion rate (37.5%), and the third-best shot on target ratio (54.5%).
Dike is lethal.
Is Daryl Dike over-performing?
While the data shows that Dike is performing well, we have to seriously question whether this level of performance is sustainable.
He is currently over-performing his xG at Barnsley by 50%. He over-performed his xG at Orlando City by 52%.
Strikers, particularly very good ones, do tend to over-perform to an extent, but they also tend to get on the end of more and better quality chances more regularly.
Harry Kane, for example, has over-performed his league xG by 14% this season, last season it was 27% and in 2018/19 it was 9%. Robert Lewandowski has over-performed his by 25% this season and did so by 9% last season.
This comparison shows just how incredibly high Dike’s current numbers are. It simply has to decrease eventually.
Dike’s conversion rate (37.5%) is also very high compared with elite strikers. Only three forwards in Europe’s top five leagues have a better conversion rate than the American.
He is certainly in incredible form, though it is hard to predict how much of that is skill, confidence, or luck.
Really we need a bigger sample size before we can properly judge him as the £20m player some are tagging him as.
What kind of player is Daryl Dike?
Dike is a 6ft 2ins striker who is able to use his physical attributes to hold the ball up and get in behind teams. He perfectly suits Barnsley’s direct and intense style of play.
This is evident from the fact that he is one of the best in the league for touches in the opposition box — 4.2 per 95 mins. He also averages a huge 20.35 aerial duels per 95, of which he has a 37.2% success rate.
While he’s able to use his ability to link up play, he’s not hugely creative.
He’s only managed to create chances equating to 0.61 expected assists (xA) for his teammates, and is yet to register an assist at Barnsley.
Why Daryl Dike suits West Ham and Leeds
Dike’s strengths are his physicality and goal threat in and around the box.
One team instantly sticks out as a good fit: West Ham. David Moyes' side play a direct style of football that focuses on creating higher quality chances closer to their opposition's goal, all of which suit Dike’s skillset.
They rank second in the Premier League for most shots created from dead-ball situations (67), and first for most goals (12) scored via the same method.
They have also had 57 shots from inside the six-yard box, 18 more than the next best, along with having the joint highest xG per shot (0.15 xG).
Another team who Dike might suit for different reasons is Leeds. There are similarities between the style of play that Barnsley and Leeds’ deploy.
Both have the lowest passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) in their leagues, 8.62 and 9.57 respectively. Both clubs also have the most final third pressures in their leagues.
Also, Leeds have the third-highest amount of long passes in the Premier League, while Barnsley have the most in the Sky Bet Championship. These similarities demonstrate that they both play a more direct style of football vertically up the pitch, and are intense at attempting to press high when out of possession.
While it is believed that Barnsley have first option on Dike's £17m buy option, realistically, can they afford that kind of fee if they don’t win the play-offs?
It's this, along with his phenomenal progress from college freshman, to MLS rookie, to Championship superstar that has top-flight clubs on red alert.
His performance level may well be unsustainable, but his ascent to the top level looks merely inevitable.