After a 17/5 winner on Thursday night, Joe Rindl returns with a best bet and preview for West Ham's match with Wolves.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 4/6 (William Hill)
I backed under 2.5 goals in West Ham’s last fixture, a 1-1 draw with Newcastle last time out.
In that preview I argued that, though Newcastle were a full 20 points behind the Hammers, the form of David Moyes’ side meant that both sides entered the match as potential winners.
West Ham have yet to lose since their mid-season break, but their manner of performances have hardly blown opponents away. They've recorded narrow wins over sixth-tier Kidderminster and strugglers Watford while they've drawn their past two.
Against Newcastle, a competitive battle ensued, with West Ham losing the xG match-up ever so slightly, 1.00 to 1.35.
Now though, the Hammers face a Wolves team just two points behind them - with a game in hand - and in terrific form.
Bruno Lage’s side have won two of their last three and were only just cruelly beaten by a 95th-minute winner at Arsenal last time out in that one defeat.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
West Ham 11/10 | Draw 11/5 | Wolves 11/4
Except are Wolves really that in-form? Wolves’ 23 goals scored this season is better than only Norwich and Burnley. Their xG process is poor, too, with only four teams holding a lower chance creation number.
Despite the well-reported praise for their defensive displays this season – only Manchester City have conceded fewer goals in the Premier League – the underlying stats suggest all is not well.
Wolves have conceded just 20 goals in the league this season, but their expected goals against ranks up to 35.25. For context, only 10th-place Southampton have conceded more than 36 goals in the Premier League’s top 10 this term.

Even with Wolves’ defensive overperformance, I still cannot see West Ham bagging a hatful at the London Stadium.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS have been scored in three of West Ham's last six outings in all competitions, and it’s a bet I will be sticking to on Sunday.
Three goals may have been netted in each of Wolves’ last two matches, but the long-term numbers are on our side.
Two of Wolves’ last four games have seen unders land, stretching to an incredible 12 successes from 16 games in all competitions since November.
This match should be a tense, tight affair. As such, putting two points on at odds of 4/6 appeals greatly.
West Ham v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 4/6 (William Hill)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (25/02/21)
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